Posted on 09/21/2004 4:35:59 AM PDT by Chairman_December_19th_Society
We will not tire, we will not falter, and we will not fail!
Good morning!!
Do not let the victims of the attacks on New York and Washington, nor the brave members of our Nations' miltary who have given their lives to protect our freedom, die in vain!!
CAT I HURRICANE JEANNE ADVISORY #31
DISCUSSION
...JEANNE--A THREAT, NOT A THREAT, A THREAT...LOW CONFIDENCE IN FORECASTS ON THIS SYSTEM...NOW A HURRICANE...ANOTHER CHANGE TO THE INTEREST WATCH AREA...
JEANNE has undergone explosive deepening of its central pressure, but the eye is still cloud covered and open to the south, indicating the presence of significant shear.
Yesterday, models came into good agreement. Today, models came into good disagreement.
The consensus--if it can really be called that--is what is being shown in the graphic. JEANNE will make a slow anticyclonic loop and then proceed westward. This is a very low confidence forecast, in the words of the NHC. But there's nothing better.
As stated earlier, JEANNE is in a relatively high shear environment. Several things could happen over the next several days. JEANNE could upwell significant amounts of cold water from staying in roughly the same spot for awhile, cutting off its "fuel," it could get sheared off by the SW flow over top of the cyclone, it could ingest the cold air from the shortwave to its north. Again, models are all over the place. NHC has prepared a forecast on the premise that none of these events will come to pass--the "safe" solution. It, like the path forecast, is of very low confidence.
WATCHES/WARNINGS
[There are no watches or warnings associated with JEANNE at this time.]
STORM DATA
Fix Time: 5 AM ET (0900Z)
Location: 27.6N by 70.0W, or 445 miles E of Great Abaco Island.
Vector: ENE at 6 MPH. Steering currents are falling apart, and JEANNE is expected to slowly turn to the E or SE later today.
Winds: 90 MPH 1-minute sustained. Some strengthening is likely over the next 24 hours.
Pressure: 972 MB or 28.70"
Diameter of Hurricane Force Winds: 100 miles.
Diameter of Tropical Storm Force Winds: 240 miles.
Anticipated Landfall Time: N/A
Anticipated Landfall Location: N/A
HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENTS
[None at this time.]
NEXRAD IMAGERY
[No part of JEANNE is within 124 nautical miles of any CONUS or Puerto Rico NEXRAD site.]
SLOSH DATA
[None at this time.]
TOD DATA
[None at this time. TOD data will be calculated if and when hurricane warnings are posted for CONUS and apply only to CONUS territories.]
STATE-ISSUED OFFICIAL EVACUATION INSTRUCTIONS AND OTHER INFORMATION
[There are no such documents for this system at this time.]
INTEREST WATCH AREA
Interests along the United States Atlantic littoral from Florida to Virginia should monitor the progress of JEANNE.
Top Bush advisors are said to be pushing for the removal of the moderator from the debate to be held at Arizona State University. The moderator is from CBS. The President has not made any indication he supports this notion.
USA Today is running a story that CBS arranged for a confidential source to talk to Joe Lockhart, an aide to John Kerry, after the network received the "unauthenticated" (forged, actually) documents.
The Criminal Party admits the documents are false, but Terry McAwful is pressing on: "Now that we know what's not true, let's focus on the facts..." [Yeah, right.]
Meanwhile, the GOP issued the following statement:
We accept CBS's apology for a breach of the journalistic standards that provide the American people confidence in news organizations, but some disturbing questions remain unanswered.
CBS has now answered questions about the authenticity of the documents but questions remain surrounding who created the documents, who provided them to CBS and if Senator Kerry's supporters, Party committee, or campaign played any role.
Did Bill Burkett, Democrat activist and Kerry campaign supporter, who passed information to the DNC, work with Kerry campaign surrogate Max Cleland? Did Bill Burkett's talks with ‘senior’ Kerry campaign officials include discussions of the now discredited documents? Was the launch of the Democrat National Committee's Operation Fortunate Son designed with knowledge of the faked forged memos? Terry McAuliffe said yesterday that no one at the DNC or Kerry campaign, ‘had anything to do with the preparations of the documents,’ but what about the distribution or dissemination?
In an effort to regain the trust of the American people CBS should not only investigate the process that led to the use of these documents but they should identify immediately those engaged in possible criminal activity who attempted to use a news organization to affect the outcome of a Presidential election in its closing days.
For AMERICA - The Right Way, I remain yours in the Cause, the Chairman.
Leaving for my son's...I will check in later this morning.
DISCUSSION
...LISA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...INTEREST AREA IDENTIFIED...
LISA remains a tiny storm.
Let's start with the track guidance. There are three possible solutions.
1. LISA continues westward as KARL moves away, and a HP ridge develops between the two cyclones. This is the solution favored by the NHC98 model.
2. LISA follows in train behind KARL. This is the solution favored by NOGAPS and UKMET.
3. LISA moves to the SW as the disturbance behind it (yes, this season is FAR from over!) intensifies.
Since there aren't any indications solutions two and three are occurring, the first is adopted. A slight move to the NW at VT forecast plus five days is introduced as there should be a weakness in the HP ridge north of LISA at that point--if the cyclone survives.
And that brings us to intensity. Significant shear is working on the system, predominantly north winds from the outflow out of KARL. This could considerably damage LISA. Then there's the new disturbance to the east of LISA. It is possible that LISA could be absorbed by the new disturbance.
IF LISA survives to VT forecast plus five days, it will be a hurricane.
WATCHES/WARNINGS
[None at this time.]
STORM DATA
Fix Time: 5 AM ET/AT (0900Z)
Location: 14.0N by 38.9W, or 1005 miles W of the Cape Verde Islands.
Vector: W at 12 MPH. This motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.
Winds: 60 MPH 1-minute sustained. Little change in strength is likely during the next 24 hours.
Pressure: 998 MB or 29.47"
Diameter of Hurricane Force Winds: N/A.
Diameter of Tropical Storm Force Winds: 100 miles.
Anticipated Landfall Time: N/A
Anticipated Landfall Location: N/A
HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENTS
[None at this time.]
NEXRAD IMAGERY
[No portion of KARL is within 124 nautical miles of CONUS or Puerto Rico NEXRAD stations.]
SLOSH DATA
[None at this time.]
TOD DATA
[None at this time. TOD data will be calculated if and when hurricane warnings are posted for CONUS and apply only to CONUS territories.]
STATE-ISSUED OFFICIAL EVACUATION INSTRUCTIONS AND OTHER INFORMATION
[There are no such documents for this system at this time.]
INTEREST WATCH AREA
Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of LISA.
I agree, RATher should go to jail.
Shake-up won't save K. Dick Morris
US Hostage decapitated NY Post story
K. adviser spoke to Burkett about docsCNN
Duped Dan's big black eye Deb Orin
K aide: Network steered me to source Deb Orin
Dan in Denial John Podhoretz
Teresa is still shooting from the lip Boston Herald...She's C-RAAAAAAAAAAAAZY!
Bush gains in crucial blue states BLUE states??? YIPPEE!
Blowing hard, glowing red Wes Pruden
AQ seen planning for spectacular attack Bill Gertz
CBS arranged Meeting with Lockhart
K's Iraq Escape Jed Babbin
The Noble Victim Geroge Neumayr
Oh give me a freakin' break! The RATs and mcawful wouldn't be able to recognize the "facts" or the "truth" if they jumped up and bit them on the hillary!
It is so obvious there was/is coordinated collusion between the RATs-SeeBS-kerry-dnc on this debacle. How else do they intend to explain how kerry was bragging to reporters on his plane that this show was "must see TV" (weeks before it aired), or how they had ads produced, purchased, and ready to go the very next day (after the show aired) featuring clips from the 60 minutes show and gunga dan the forgery man, or the simple fact that johnny-effin's campaign communications director, joe-kneepads-lockjaw was put in contact with burkett via SeeBS....no, no coordination here folks. Move along, nothing to see here...
This is starting to make Watergate look like jaywalking in comparison!
Thank you chairman...can't believe how Ivan returned to FL!! Talk about weird weather...
Sorry, RlD, but I'm going to have to disagree.
I think the other networks and other media outlets are going to be forced to get to the bottom of this. If they don't, they are going to be painted with the same brush as Cbs. Guilt by Association, you know.
It's way to early to know exactly what the fall out from this incident will be. But if I had to guess, I'd say Congress will approve some stronger penalties for those who use fraud to attempt to swing an election.
And there's always the outside chance that that Congress will look at legislation to force the news media to reveal sources. If the media wants to retain all the rights they currently enjoy they're going to have to get to the bottom of this.
jtill, worried about you. Did you go to Maine later than usual?? Please check in!
My mind is in a fog...not enough coffee...help me blow that opinion apart. Other than WMD were used previously what else is there?
Rest assured, I still believe they may be found..either in Iraq or another country.
Hi.. so good to hear from you and the report on the campus scene. YOu'll have to help the Campus republicans find their backbone, it appears..
did you contact Jason?
Is there only ONE church for you to chose from?s
Oh, goody (no offense).
Now we're doing what the other side does--let's just pass a new law. (Again, no offense.)
There are already laws to cover this, and the GOP needs to force the day and make sure they're enforced!!
speaking of the CBS incident going away, what is going on with Sandy Berger?
Thanks for the links. Great reading.
We were just talking about Sandy B. the other day. Wonder what the status is on him?
You may have shared info & I missed it. Few weeks ago you mentioned you were going on a program (patches?) to stop smoking...
did you do it? how is it going?
Regarding WMDs--
Saddam wanted everyone to believe it was true. The US Congress believed it was true. The UN believed it was true. Some of Saddam's own generals believed it was true. France believed it was true. Germany believed it was true. Russia believed it was true. The mainstream media believed it was true. I am sure that Dan Rather beleived it was true.
In short everyone acted upon what they believed was truth.
Regarding Rathergate--
CBS didn't conduct any "pre-attack" intelligence gathering. If they had...
FreeRepublic would have told them it wasn't true. Several web blogs would have told them it wasn't true. The Washington Post (yep!) would have told them it wasn't true. The Air Force would have told them it wasn't true. Heck, probably Saddam would have told them it wasn't true.
I think that should do it.
Actually I believe it has been told that CBS did do pre intelligence & the experts, family etc all said it was NOT true. The went ahead anyway
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