Posted on 08/31/2004 12:50:42 PM PDT by My Favorite Headache
Edited on 08/31/2004 4:05:13 PM PDT by Admin Moderator. [history]
Hurricane Frances Now A Severe Category 4 Hurricane VORTEX Bulletin:
--Previous Message-- : 000 : URNT12 KNHC 311907 : VORTEX DATA MESSAGE : A. 31/1907Z : B. 20 DEG 22 MIN N : 65 DEG 20 MIN W : C. 700 MB 2579 M : D. 50 KT : E. 226 DEG 084 NM : F. 323 DEG 123 KT : G. 238 DEG 011 NM : H. 940 MB : I. 13 C/ 3074 M : J. 24 C/ 3057 M : K. 10 C/ NA : L. CLOSED WALL : M. C28 : N. 12345/07 : O. .1 /2 NM : P. AF985 1006A FRANCES OB 11 : MAX FL WIND 139 KT NW QUAD 1735Z. : SMALL HAIL IN SW EYEWALL.
Category Five Hurricane:
Winds greater than 155 mph (135 kt or 249 km/hr).
Correct. Winds measured up where the Hurricane Hunters fly are higher than surface winds, which is what the NHC uses to categorize a storm. They'll use that flight-level wind of 139 knots in a formula to estimate the surface wind, and that's what gets reported.
My guess is they'll say 115 or 120 knots, which is still a Category Four. And correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't Frances a particularly big mama size-wise? That thing looks awfully big compared to some others.
}:-)4
Category Five Hurricane:
Winds greater than 155 mph (135 kt or 249 km/hr).
yes...i know the definition of cat 5 storm.....and Frances is well below that at this time.....
cat 5 designation is not based on flight level winds.
I hope everyone on the coast is taking notice and getting the hell out of the way!!!!!
Sorry to threadjack, but what's the origin of that expression? Just wondering... I recently moved near, then away from, Great Seneca Hwy in Maryland...
Greater than 155 at sea level not flight level
Just get out of its way.
Is Daytona on this track so far?
I know from experience that after one of these major storms, lots of insurers will pull out of the state or cancel policies for trumped up reasons. When you try to get a new policy, it will cost twice as much.
Man, that's a scary radar signature!
Must be the 'chad effect'.
Seriously though, folks in the path of the storm, be prepared to bug out. You will be in my prayers.
Cat 5 is approx 930 millibar or lower pressure and 155mph+ at sea-level.
But I wouldn't put it past the storm to strengthen further. There are no high level winds to rip it up, the water only gets warmer, etc.
Anything from Palm Beach north is in play.
Agreed it was my own ignorance to post flight level winds...I didn't pay mind to the FL next to the knots..lol...but jumped when I saw the recon vortex.
Nothing about Cat 5 here.
000 WTNT31 KNHC 311757 TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE FRANCES INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 27A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM AST TUE AUG 31 2004 ...POWERFULL HURRICANE FRANCES...WITH 140 MPH WINDS...MOVING WESTWARD A LITTLE FASTER... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ...WHICH INCLUDES ACKLINS...CROOKED...INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA AND RAGGED ISLANDS...AND FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WHICH INCLUDES CAT...EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY AND SAN SALVADOR. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO... CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OF ST. THOMAS...ST. JOHN AND SURROUNDING ISLANDS...AND FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA GORDA WESTWARD TO MANZANILLO BAY AND HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH SOUTH OF PUNTA GORDA. AT 2 PM AST...1800Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 65.0 WEST OR ABOUT 140 MILES...230 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH ...26 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE PASSING PASS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE U.S AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO LATER TODAY. SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO RADAR SHOWS RAINBANS APPROACHING PUERTO RICO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 140 MPH...225 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM. A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE JUST MEASURED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 942 MB...27.82 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER...ARE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRANCES TODAY. LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG NORTH COAST OF THE ISLANDS IN THE WARNING AREA.
crazieman....latest sat pics show a contracting eye and that "smooth" eyewall appearance........could be heading towards 930 soon....
I remember that very well...it just got the ever living hell sucked out of it. Everyone was so fearful of that storm too.
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