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Posted on 10/11/2026 4:54:08 PM PDT by MinorityRepublican
The prospect of a Democratic "blue wave" in the US midterm elections may be less certain than some polls suggest, with experts warning that Donald Trump’s supporters could be under-represented in surveys.
Democrats currently hold an advantage over Republicans in several polls ahead of the 3 November elections. However, some pollsters have questioned whether that lead is being overstated because Republican voters are less likely to respond to surveys, according to a report by Axios.
Polls underestimated Trump’s support in the 2016, 2020 and 2024 presidential elections. Although surveys have generally been more accurate in midterm elections, some also underestimated Republican support in 2022, Scott Keeter, a senior survey adviser at the Pew Research Center, told Axios.
The RealClearPolling average of the generic congressional vote currently puts Democrats about eight percentage points ahead of Republicans.
The Cook Political Report forecasts that Democrats could gain between nine and 19 seats in the House of Representatives, potentially giving them a narrow majority. In the Senate, it projects a net Democratic gain of two to six seats. The party would need to gain four seats to take control of the chamber.
However, researchers say Republicans have become less likely than Democrats to participate in telephone surveys. Pollsters have responded by giving greater weight to Republican respondents, but this approach may not fully account for those who do not answer.
(Excerpt) Read more at timesnownews.com ...
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You don't say?
I wonder why anyone would think that polls are biased no matter what.
Also....follow the money.
[sigh] I’m old enough to remember when “red” meant communist and “blue” meant patriot.
The media flipped the table back when Algore was fighting his failed election.
I long for the days when we hated commie red and loved patriot blue.
Now there’s purple. What the heck?
Prediction: record low midterm turnout. Neither side will be happy with the results.
I can say a couple of things with confidence here in Texas:
1. The undecided portion is usually large— about 8 percent. That suggests a late group of voters who plan to go against the rhetoric of the polsters. You don’t see much dem over 50 polling meaning undecideds could easily break against dems.
2. Blacks are not happy with what dems are offering. Angry white women, communists and Islamists do not create the 80-% vote they need.
Rasmussen has President Trump down 17%.
That doesn’t bode well when he’s declaring the midterms a referendum on him.
You should also consider RCP’s Democrat favourability rating poll in which the Dems are at -14.9. The Republican number is at -17.1, so no great shakes for them either. However, with the Democrat number at that level, I can’t imagine that real great deal of enthusiasm being there for them.
Didja ever notice FR bashes polls when they’re against us, but not the other way around?
the rats enthusiasm is based totally on getting Trump....the fact the rats have so many loony candidates should help Republicans with independents...
The bottom line is people need to get out and vote...i am here in liberal NY and the rats are running more ads than usual which tells me they are concerned...
Translation: They aren’t buying our fake polls.
I love the pessimism. Very inspiring.
RealClear Politics polling uses the “Averaging Method:”
It combines multiple public opinion polls to smooth out individual house effects and reduce margins of error compared to looking at a single survey.
RCP has Industry trust: Its polling averages are regularly referenced by major news organizations and campaign teams.
Aggregating data across many pollsters generally provides a more reliable snapshot of public opinion than trusting any single poll. National averages over multi-week or multi-month stretches tend to capture broad directional trends in major races.
• RealClearPolling relies on the quality of the individual polls it includes. If underlying polling methods across the industry are skewed (such as missing turnout shifts or underestimating specific voter blocks), the average will reflect those errors.
• The aggregation has faced criticism when major elections shifted outside expectations—such as underestimating Donald Trump’s support in key swing states during the 2016 presidential election.
• Critics and media watchdogs have occasionally questioned its inclusion or exclusion criteria for certain polls or noted a shift in the platform’s broader commentary and media posture over time.
You can view current data directly on the RealClearPolling platform, keeping in mind that polls are snapshots in time rather than guaranteed predictions of an outcome.
Yup, and there are those here who are wrong every election but people still like their positive spin.
Hedging now in effect
Life is one big drum roll.
We’re being played ladies and gents.
They know exactly how much they underestimate Trump supporters in the polls so should be adjusting for that...but they don’t and won’t.
They aren’t real polls they are fake polls used to hopefully shape public opinion. It didn’t work for President Hillary.
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