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Redistricting Isn’t the Democrats’ Problem
The Liberal Patriot ^ | Sep 04, 2025 | Ruy Teixeira

Posted on 09/04/2025 2:38:25 PM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum

The redistricting wars are in full swing. Somewhat implausibly, Democrats claim they will match Republicans’ redistricting moves, as in Texas, with moves of their own that will cancel them out. But Democrats just have fewer places than the GOP to pull off these maneuvers and, even where they are in control of state government, are more likely to face institutional obstacles like nonpartisan commissions specifically designed to prevent gerrymandering. Therefore, the net results of these moves and counter-moves is likely to favor the GOP.

How badly could all this hurt the Democrats in 2026? In all likelihood, not very. As Nate Cohn has pointed out, other factors that make the midterm environment favorable to the Democrats will likely swamp the effects of any pro-GOP redistricting. As he notes, even with a Texas redistricting, the 2026 midterm map will still be less pro-GOP than the 2018 map—and we know what happened then.

So does that mean Democrats shouldn’t worry at all about redistricting shenanigans? No, but it does mean they shouldn’t hit the panic button about it. Their problems lie far deeper than that and go way beyond the marginal House seat in the 2026 election. Indeed the garment-rending about the GOP’s redistricting efforts misses the harm done to Democrats by the continuing concentration of their partisans in ever-less competitive districts, under the press of both redistricting and population sorting.

In the 21st century, the number of Democratic-held districts that are considered competitive has declined steadily to only about a quarter of seats. The Democrats’ median district now has a double-digit partisan lean of +13D, meaning it is 13 points more Democratic than the nation as a whole. This means that Democratic Congressional representatives are under less and less pressure to deviate...

(Excerpt) Read more at liberalpatriot.com ...


TOPICS: Politics
KEYWORDS: democrats; redistricting

1 posted on 09/04/2025 2:38:25 PM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

California has commissions, but they’re ignoring them.


2 posted on 09/04/2025 4:00:13 PM PDT by roving
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To: All

Redistricting Isn’t the Democrats’ Problem,
<><> the number of Democratic-held districts considered competitive has declined steadily
<><>competitive districts now number about a quarter of seats.
<><>Democrats’ median district now has a double-digit partisan lean of +13D,
<><>meaning it is 13 points more Democratic than the nation as a whole.
<><>means that Democratic Cong reps are under less and less pressure to deviate...


3 posted on 09/04/2025 4:05:48 PM PDT by Liz (May you be in Heaven half an hour before the devil kno ws you're dead (Irish blessing))
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To: AdmSmith; AnonymousConservative; Arthur Wildfire! March; Berosus; Bockscar; BraveMan; cardinal4; ...

4 posted on 09/05/2025 9:59:44 AM PDT by SunkenCiv (NeverTrumpin' -- it's not just for DNC shills anymore -- oh, wait, yeah it is.)
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