Posted on 11/30/2024 5:29:44 PM PST by SeekAndFind
Multiple sources report that a military coup may be underway in Damascus. The Republican Guard is reportedly engaged in combat with a division of the Syrian Army. Ordinarily, the Republican Guard is the regime protection force, but the situation is so confused in Syria that it is hard to tell. Speculation has identified the coup leader as a member of Assad's inner circle.
Interesting, coup underway in Damascus by Hassan Louka, Assad’s chief of General Security and Assad’s point man on moving Syria out of Irans orbit and more towards the Russians. Possibly a Russian sponsored coup.
pic.twitter.com/449OmW9O0g— RomanMeehar (@MeeharRoman) November 30, 2024
Take that for what it's worth.
Syrian state television has just gone off the air.
Reports of coup underway in Damascus. Gunfire can be heard in this video. Game changing events unfolding if true. Assad remains out of the country. pic.twitter.com/KCw5nLisrc— Firas Maksad (@FirasMaksad) November 30, 2024
🇸🇾 There are reports of a possible coup attempt taking place in Damascus, Syria. The Syrian Republican Guard and the 4th Division of the Syrian Arab Army (Assad’s forces) are reportedly clashing in the capital of Syria, more specifically in the Kafr Sousa district of Damascus.… pic.twitter.com/utzDEk3U0n— Conflict Dispatch (@ConflictDISP) November 30, 2024
This is just another in a series of signs that the Bashar al-Assad regime is in its last days.
Yesterday, Aleppo fell after a 72-hour offensive; see Assad Loyalists and Russians in Headlong Retreat After Surprise Rebel Offensive on Aleppo. To put it in context, Aleppo has been controlled by Assad's forces since 2011. Today, two other major Syrian cities have fallen to the insurgents: Hamah and Homs.
If reports are accurate on the fall of Hamah, opposition forces are already halfway to Damascus. Assad’s best forces are supposedly in Damascus, but giving up so many defensible points along the way is not a viable long-term strategy. It’s inviting a siege with the city cutoff.
pic.twitter.com/IEfcQX4v83— John Jackson (@hissgoescobra) November 30, 2024
If you want to know more or less how this soccer match ends here's a map.
If rebels take Homs & then Al-Qusayr just south of it they'll have split the regime in Damascus from its Alawite strongholds along the coast.
pic.twitter.com/zypSoheeub— Druze Saher (@DruzeSaher32) November 30, 2024
Adding further fuel to the fire is the fact that Assad and his family were in Moscow while Putin attended a conference in Kazakhstan. Many members of Assad's family are reportedly holed up in the UAE.
Well placed sources say #Assad remains in #Moscow, while much of his family & close allies are also abroad — in #Russia & the #UAE.
That adds a stunning extra angle to the collapse of northern #Syria.— Charles Lister (@Charles_Lister) November 30, 2024
There is a report of a plane arriving from Moscow overnight, which some are taking to mean Assad has returned. I find it very unlikely that Assad would return to Syria under these circumstances.
A Russian jet lands in Damascus tonight. Likely Syrian President Assad returned from Moscow
pic.twitter.com/HaI73La78Q— Ragıp Soylu (@ragipsoylu) November 30, 2024
Bottom Line
The insurgent breakthrough toward Damascus and the inability of the Syrian Army to rally is not a good sign for Assad. The initial interpretation of the offensive taking place while Assad was out of the country as a sign that the regime was caught flatfooted now seems, to me, to be in error. Assad was in Moscow with his family while Russia's foreign minister and Putin were out of the country. So, it clearly was not a state visit. It is beginning to look like he knew what was coming. If a coup is underway in Damascus, there is a high probability that it will succeed, and an immediate attempt will be made to reach an arrangement with the insurgents. What happens then is anyone's guess.
What’s in it for us-anything?
Assad family fleeing? To whrere?
Bad guys fighting bad guys as far as I can tell. If so, may they both be successful killing each other, and leave what there may be of innocent civilians alone.
The odds are whoever wins will suck.
I’ll believe it when it reads less like made up propaganda (“multiple sources” and “well-placed source” all unnamed) and more reliably sourced. There’s no question in my mind that an attempted “colour revolution” promoted by the usual suspects is underway.
Erodgan backed forces (Aleppo) and the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood (Homs and hamah), vying for Russian support to replace the Mullahs of Tehran as Putin’s partners in Syria, in which Putin would force Assad to make deals with Erdogan and the Syrian Musim Brotherhood, weakinging Assad long term.
Did John Kerry’s Buddy flee to Moscow?
For us? Nothing good. Libya and Syria were idiot moves by Hillary Clinton to get oil contacts for her cronies in Libya and Syria.
In Dec 2015 all the Presidential candidates, but Trump, were trying to out macho each other about establishing a no fly zone over Syria to prevent Russia supporting Assad.
Trump got my unreserved support when he spoke out against it.
Syria been a Russian client state since the 1950s. We have no US National interest there
“ What’s in it for us-anything?”
Nothing.
But you’ll notice the Putin shills will make a big deal of it.
As if it’s bad.
If the Islamists take over, they'll kill all religious minorities in Syria. And Syria will become a hotbed for terrorism similar to Afghanistan.
Interesting.
The one thing Obama etc. & Israel agreed on- Assad had to go.
If Erdogan and the Syrian Musim Brotherhood (obama’s muslim pals) are behind it, I would prefer Assad.
“As if it’s bad.”
Well, it looks like those taking over are hard-core Islamists.
And that IS bad. I want all hard-core Islamists everywhere — and especially those near Israel — to eat all manner of explosive-driven shrapnel and DIE. The sooner and more brutal their deaths, the better.
Does that make me a Putin shill?
If Assad falls, get ready for a purge of all religious minorities in Syria.
Syrian Christians are going to be massacred ..
“Does that make me a Putin shill?”
No. I agree with your comment. “I want all hard-core Islamists everywhere — and especially those near Israel — to eat all manner of explosive-driven shrapnel and DIE.“
But closing with “Does that make me a Putin shill?” Does make it sound like it.
I’m not sure why you felt compelled to add that.
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