Pennsylvania General Election, September 2024, Trump 47.5% / Harris 45.3%

www.thetrafalgargroup.org ^ | September 30, 2024 | Staff

[Red Badger]

Conducted 09/26/24 - 09/29/24

• 1090 Respondents

• Likely 2024 General Election Voters

• Response Rate: 3.89%

• Margin of Error: 2.9%

• Confidence: 95%

• Response Distribution: 50%

• Methodology: TheTrafalgarGroup.org/Polling-Methodology

[Owen]

It would never be reported.

We are FAR past the point where policy means anything.

It’s all about getting ballots harvested now. For whatever reason.

[Bob Wills is still the king]

Trafalgar “adjusts” its polls to account for “shy Trump voters,” and adds that number to their totals.

It’s not a reliable pollster, so we need to keep working.

[FenwickBabbitt]

In 2020, Trafalgar’s battleground state polls on average were more accurate than polls by Emerson, NBC, ABC, Quinnipiac, CNN, Fox News, Morning Consult, and every other mainstream media poll. Atlas Intel was slightly more accurate, and Insider Advantage was essentially tied in accuracy for state polls. Rasmussen was slightly behind Trafalgar.

How is Trafalgar not a “reliable pollster” when it was just a fraction of a point away from being the most accurate pollster of the whole 2020 elections? And it was Trafalgar alone that signaled Trump winning Michigan in 2016. Yes, when Trafalgar errs, it’s on the side of Republicans, but they are still far more reliable than the other, more publicized polls—at least when Trump is on the ballot. And yes, we very much need to keep working (https://www.donaldjtrump.com/), but there’s no reason to dismiss polls with a good history of digging out actual Trump support.

[JesusIsLord]

PA has a Democrat governor. The PA SOS responsible for PA elections is Albert Schmidt who was a Philadelphia City Commissioner from 2012 to 2022. A member of the Republican Party, Schmidt refused to cooperate with efforts to overturn the 2020 presidential election, which led him to be publicly attacked by then-President Donald Trump on Twitter. Schmidt provided testimony before the January 6 Committee in 2022. He was chosen to serve as Secretary of the Commonwealth by Democrat Governor Josh Shapiro.

Democrat control of Philly and Pittsburgh is akin to that of Tammany Hall.

The Democrat party in PA can manufacture as many votes as it needs to win. When you have SOS's like Schmidt unwilling to investigate fraud and prevent certification - it becomes unlikely that Trump and McCormick can win in PA - I'm sorry to say.

[Lod881019]

It’s September 30 not October 30 they’ll be fine

[Lod881019]

Elise Slotkin own internal polls have Kamala losing Michigan and that’s the DNC candidate for senate seems Donald is doing his usually closing the last month deal

[Lod881019]

Well go hide under your bed and prepare for the rapture

[nathanbedford]

Thanks for introducing facts into the speculation.

[convoter2016]

When it comes to the popular national vote in 2020, Nate Silver said that AtlasIntel was the most accurate polster and Trafalgar Group wasn’t that far behind AtlasIntel.

[Mark17]

Anything less than 5% can be cheated.

Yes, now they know just how many fraudulent votes they need.

[dp0622]

YAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

There will be lots of negative comments here I’m sure....about cheating and this and that or the other thing.

They aven’t had their oatmeal yet :)

But this is GOOD NEWS and sometiems GOOD NEWS IS JUST GOOD NEWS!!

[BamaBelle]

To me Pennsylvania is like Lucy's football. We always think we are going to win it, but we never do By my prediction, Trump needs either Michigan, Wisconsin, OR Pennsylvania to win.