Trafalgar “adjusts” its polls to account for “shy Trump voters,” and adds that number to their totals.
It’s not a reliable pollster, so we need to keep working.
In 2020, Trafalgar’s battleground state polls on average were more accurate than polls by Emerson, NBC, ABC, Quinnipiac, CNN, Fox News, Morning Consult, and every other mainstream media poll. Atlas Intel was slightly more accurate, and Insider Advantage was essentially tied in accuracy for state polls. Rasmussen was slightly behind Trafalgar.
How is Trafalgar not a “reliable pollster” when it was just a fraction of a point away from being the most accurate pollster of the whole 2020 elections? And it was Trafalgar alone that signaled Trump winning Michigan in 2016. Yes, when Trafalgar errs, it’s on the side of Republicans, but they are still far more reliable than the other, more publicized polls—at least when Trump is on the ballot. And yes, we very much need to keep working (https://www.donaldjtrump.com/), but there’s no reason to dismiss polls with a good history of digging out actual Trump support.
When it comes to the popular national vote in 2020, Nate Silver said that AtlasIntel was the most accurate polster and Trafalgar Group wasn’t that far behind AtlasIntel.