Posted on 06/12/2024 8:35:51 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
There are two key things we have at our disposal to assess the state of a presidential election. The first, of course, is match-up polling. The second is approval ratings. Even when an incumbent isn't seeking reelection, the approval ratings of the incumbent party are still informative.
If you're following the approval and match-up polls at all this campaign, you know two things: Joe Biden isn't very popular, and Donald Trump is leading in most of the battleground states. Considering these two factors alone — and there are plenty more that suggest Trump is favored to win — things look darn good for President Trump in November.
I want to shout out everyone who worked on this for the past 3 months. This was truly a team effort, with beautiful designs from our interactive team, meticulous fact-checking from our copy team, and a huge data collection effort by our research team.
https://t.co/jo3N13xW1r pic.twitter.com/Qju92VRVPS— Nathaniel Rakich (@baseballot) June 11, 2024
Technically, Nathaniel Rakich, the senior editor and senior elections analyst at FiveThirtyEight, calls it a toss-up, but, as the graphic he posts shows, out of the 100 simulations FiveThirtyEight ran, Biden won 53 times, and Trump just 47 times. In a separate post on X, he insists that FiveThirtyEight's model is based on polls and fundamentals.
How is that possible? A day earlier, Rakich noted that Joe Biden's approval ratings hit an all-time low in FiveThirtyEight's average.
Joe Biden's approval rating has hit 37.4% in 538's average—an all-time low.
https://t.co/sF8buXFup9 pic.twitter.com/lZcLTxOOw2— Nathaniel Rakich (@baseballot) June 10, 2024
(Excerpt) Read more at pjmedia.com ...
“Historically, all incumbents with an approval rating of 50% or higher have won reelection, and presidents with approval ratings much lower than 50% have lost,” noted Jeffrey Jones of Gallup four years ago. See here:
https://news.gallup.com/poll/311825/presidential-job-approval-related-reelection-historically.aspx
37.4% is well below that 50% threshold.
I noticed today that LBJ was polling at 36% in March 1968 when he decided NOT to run for reelection.
Perhaps he knows the margin of cheat?
“Steal like their lives depended on it, Democrats will.” — Yoda
538 is just not very good at it. Remember that in 2016 they had Hillary a 96% probability of winning. Right up till election day.
It’s simple. They know that Joe Biden is using the “special sauce”.
Both could be considered incumbents. Also, Biden is the establishment. So, they will cheat.
2016 was an unique election. The Democrats were overconfident. No one told them that we were going to vote for Donald Trump. So they thought they had the election in the bag.
They're not making that mistake this time.
For God’s sake, WAKE UP.
It doesn’t matter if Democrats think this or that. They, and Republicans, have lost the numbers.
Look at the surveys. Independents are consistently over 45% of the electorate and Dems/GOP sub 30%.
Models that do not focus on that cannot be valid. And they can’t focus on it because there is no precedent.
“Something Fishy” ...
Does this mean that the projection model developers are full of ‘CARP’???
The Economist gives Trump a 66% chance based on a much more robust election forecast model that they update daily here:
https://www.economist.com/interactive/us-2024-election/prediction-model/president
I don’t think they are in on the steal. Try listening to the accompanying podcast. https://abcnews.go.com/538/video/538s-new-forecast-2024-election-toss-111002607
Historical polling error, approval rating, economic variables, State level history/factors, regression to the mean, and time to election are all taken into account.
They have eight “swing states” that they break out in particular-—from Minnesota to North Carolina—and while Trump is leading in enough right now to make him a heavy favourite if the election were held today (around 80%), his lead in the bulk is narrow enough that if historical polling error this far out is taken into account along with regression to the mean that it offsets Biden’s awful popularity. If the same margin is maintained into September, things will shift.
Their “snake”, the outcome if the model is right on every single state, has Trump carrying Arizona, barely, but falling short in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Nebraska 2, which, in that order, are the most likely, according to the model, of the remaining Biden votes to fall to Trump. If any of these three states go his way, while holding the rest that they have Trump at least nominally favoured in, Trump wins. I suspect Nebraska 2 flipping leads to a tie.
Does this mean that the projection model developers are full of ‘CARP’???
The regime has indicated that this is a battle for the sole of the nation.
Plaice your bets!
1) Lies
2) Damnable Lies
3) Statistics
and now a new category
4) Liberal talking points
Ignore everything else, it is ENTIRELY about Pennsylvania, at the moment they have Biden winning that by a nose, even though Trump is ahead in the polls. This is just how their model works.
DEMOCRATS CHEAT!! PERIOD!
:Here's Hopin':
:UK:
:NeverTrumpin':
Figures don’t lie but liars can figure.
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