“Historically, all incumbents with an approval rating of 50% or higher have won reelection, and presidents with approval ratings much lower than 50% have lost,” noted Jeffrey Jones of Gallup four years ago. See here:
https://news.gallup.com/poll/311825/presidential-job-approval-related-reelection-historically.aspx
37.4% is well below that 50% threshold.
I noticed today that LBJ was polling at 36% in March 1968 when he decided NOT to run for reelection.
Both could be considered incumbents. Also, Biden is the establishment. So, they will cheat.