Posted on 12/04/2023 10:54:26 AM PST by davikkm
Be careful what you wish for, as the looming rate cut anticipated at the Fed’s March 20th meeting might not bring the desired outcome. History suggests that the first cut often aligns with a market decline, typically indicative of a slowing economy or crisis.
Concerns are surfacing, especially in California, where tax receipts have plummeted by 25%, raising questions about an impending recession. The Legislative Analyst’s Office (LAO) report indicates a downturn in 2022, supported by the triggering of the Sahm Rule, even though applying it to states sparks controversy.
(Excerpt) Read more at citizenwatchreport.com ...
They are putting out the fire with gasoline..................
crisis
CRISIS!
We need more inflation.
Whistling past the graveyard. Wishful hoping about a rate cut that I do not believe is going to happen. More likely another hike.
Easy fix.
Print more dollars. Ten trillion ought to do it, for starters.
2024-2025 will be ugly.
I was actually looking at the Sahm Rule’s historical data yesterday, and found that it usually triggers 3-4 months after a recession has already started.
Most likely, it stays the same.
The Fed needs a rate cut to contain rising Fed debt servicing costs, which will top one trillion dollars this fiscal year.
The run up of the stock market in 2023 is eerily similar to what happened in 1929. Despite inherent weaknesses in the economy stocks through most of 1929 rose steadily until the collapse. The stock market in 2023 has defied economic realities. Despite enormous government and consumer debt, inflation,banking instability, money printing and policies designed to stall and even sabotage economic growth and production, stocks have risen. Fear what is coming in 2024 will make 1930 look tame. Then a conservative government was replaced by quasi socialists. In 2024 suspect the current socialist government will be replaced by conservative American patriots. Economic recovery however will not come easily.
The run up of the stock market in 2023 is eerily similar to what happened in 1929. Despite inherent weaknesses in the economy stocks through most of 1929 rose steadily until the collapse. The stock market in 2023 has defied economic realities. Despite enormous government and consumer debt, inflation,banking instability, money printing and policies designed to stall and even sabotage economic growth and production, stocks have risen. Fear what is coming in 2024 will make 1930 look tame. Then a conservative government was replaced by quasi socialists. In 2024 suspect the current socialist government will be replaced by conservative American patriots. Economic recovery however will not come easily.
It’s an election year would you expect any thing different. Give the economy another hit of meth.
Fed needs a rate cut to contain rising Fed debt servicing costs, which will top one trillion dollars this fiscal year.
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Put in a simple way- we are paying close to $1 Trillion a year in interest payments for n our debt. Madness….and rate cuts will not stop supply side inflation. Any sane economist realizes we are in a box, no way out without ALOT of financial pain…..default is predicted by many in the financial field.
Agreed. I think the next Fed move is another rate hike by the end of 2024 Q1. No cut will happen until something breaks, like the stock market. That will open the floodgates from the Fed for the last round of money printing in the trillions. All assets (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, oil) will have a blow-off top in response. That will be followed by a sharp increase in interest rates and a severe, multi-year depression.
After 17 months of the central bank tightening, the cheap money pimps want rate cuts.
However, Powell’s hearing aids went “belly up” & he can’t hear them at the moment.
The USG needs lower interest rates to reduce debt servicing costs. 40% of the total revenue from income taxes are needed to pay just debt servicing costs.
Rates go down: bad
Rates go up: bad
If the Fed reduces the rate, how will it sell the $1.6 Trillions in Bonds?
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