Posted on 08/10/2023 10:04:13 AM PDT by Kaiser8408a
I don’t know whether Cap’n (Credit) Crunch is Fed Chair Powell or the big spender Boss (Tweed) Biden?
Money supply growth fell again in June, remaining deep in negative territory after turning negative in November 2022 for the first time in twenty-eight years. June’s drop continues a steep downward trend from the unprecedented highs experienced during much of the past two years.
And with M2 Money growth down for 8 consecutive months, bank credit down -0.2% YoY.
(Excerpt) Read more at confoundedinterest.net ...
I haven’t seen a lowering of prices.
I haven’t seen a lowering of prices. Quite the opposite. Maybe part of the inflation is a lowering of money supply.
As I understand it shrinking the money supply is a way to fight inflation. I could be wrong about that.
Milk and eggs have gone down a bunch, at least at my local Aldi. Gasoline is way up though.
More like The Ham-burglar.
Cap’n Crunch is an able seafarer and a noble spokesman. Biden is more like the Crunchberry Beast.
Please correct me if I’m wrong, but in our fiat era, money supply has never dropped without being followed by a recession
And moreover, it previously only dropped as much as it presently has during the Great Depression and 2008 financial crisis.
>Milk and eggs have gone down a bunch, at least at my local Aldi. Gasoline is way up though.
Well, milk and eggs are currently in a glut, while gas is currently tight because of OPEC/Russian oil supply cuts.
The problem is the waves of money shocks as this huge hunk of money the Fed and government hoisted on the economy during COVID finally dissipates. Should take a decade.
Because I think they’re still try to shrink down to the level from before they started printing money for the pandemic. Plus you have to figure in all the lost productivity from that period. You need to additionally shrink the money supply even more to account for that missing productivity.
>And moreover, it previously only dropped as much as it presently has during the Great Depression and 2008 financial crisis.
I have a feeling that we’re finally at the end of the peak, and once house purchases/summer demand wanes in September, you’re going to see the institutional investors dump the market and it should correct to about 25,000 or so by Feb and then the institutional investors will reenter to save Biden.
When all that Covid money that was handed out in 2021 and 2022 stopped, that’s when the money supply started shrinking.
It is, but the effect isn’t going to be instantaneous.
To get zero inflation, you are essentially aiming for a tiny moving target, where the money supply exactly equals the money your economy needs. But that target constantly changes with the productivity of your economy. So if productivity is generally increasing, you can keep increasing the money supply to some degree and avoid inflation.
But if you expanded the money supply well beyond the level of productivity increase, as we did during the pandemic, you can’t just start shrinking the money supply and expect it to have any effect on inflation. Only when you have shrunk it back to where that “moving target” is at the moment will you see an effect on inflation.
And even that is a bit of an oversimplification since there are other factors that can delay when inflation effects start after their original cause, etc.
I would add that the influence of money velocity in the economy is often underestimated. That's why the COVID relief money was so important in 2020. Money velocity had slowed to almost a complete stop by April 2020.
If the U.S. government printed $10 trillion tomorrow and everyone who got a piece of it simply stuffed it in their mattresses, there would be no inflationary impact at all. But if the government printed $500 billion tomorrow and told everyone who received it that they had 30 days to spend it, the inflationary impact would be enormous.
Wonder how much money is sent out of the country by 8 million new illegals to their umm family’s.
And the 30 million who have been here for the last 30 years.
Uhhh...no
The money supply is overextended as is.
It’s going to have to contract further to get us back to normal.
Thanks to bush, fubo, Trump and Brandon for this.
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