Posted on 11/29/2022 5:35:24 AM PST by Red Badger
Let me explain.
Here are charts graphing each of Pennsylvania’s daily Democratic Mail-In Ballot Applications and Returns for the 2022 Midterm. You can see all 67 counties here. (2/32)
PA Mail In Ballot County Charts.pdf
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1N9JygwKFPFCDrCTvPExmsukG_Anbp-68/view?usp=share_li
This is what a Democratic Mail-In Ballot Application and Return cycle looks like for a typical Pennsylvania county. Almost every county, including Philadelphia and Allegheny, looks like this.
Nearly 2/3’s of all Democratic Mail-In Ballot Applications happen in the Spring. That’s because counties are statutorily required to mail the prior year’s Mail-In Ballot Applicants if they wish to re-enroll for the current year. (4/32)
Essentially, Democratic campaigns “chase” those county mailers with digital ads, texts, robocalls or even their own mailer to get Democratic voters to re-enroll for a Mail-In Ballot. (5/32)
Democratic campaigns leverage taxpayer-funded mailers to do most of their ballot harvesting and save money. Smart! (6/32)
The remaining 1/3 of Democratic Mail-In Ballot Applications happen in late Fall when campaign activity is at a fever-pitch...much of it organic. (7/32)
While some Fall prospecting happens, Democratic harvesting efforts tend to pump the breaks by late September because +15% of Democrats don’t return ballots. It often becomes an uncast vote. (8/32)
One would assume that the Dobbs abortion decision, released in late June 2022, would have led to a summer surge in Democratic Mail-In Ballot Applications. (9/32)
The Democrats thought so, too. So much so that left-leaning organizations began mailing female democrats under the age of 40 across Pennsylvania who hadn’t voted in a decade, asking them to apply for a Mail-In Ballot. (10/32)
Shockingly, the Dobbs Summer Surge never came. The summer was dead for Democratic ballot harvesters, even in Pittsburgh and Philly. Make no mistake, @JohnFetterman and @JoshShapiroPA had the resources to do it. (11/32)
Likewise, the summer surge never came in Montgomery County, which home to the Democratic suburban base. (12/32)
However, the Dobbs Summer Surge did happen in one place: Delaware County. (13/32)
How anomalous was Delaware County? If you break 2022 into Pre-Dobbs, Dobbs Summer, and Fall, Delaware County Democrats got MOST of their Mail-In Applications during the summer which is when the other 66 counties got THE FEWEST. (14/32)
What did the Delaware County democrats do? Let’s start with what they didn’t do. (15/32)
Ballot harvesting in Pennsylvania is hard because the ballot harvester must have a voter’s Social Security or Driver’s License number. Here’s the application. (16/32)
County Boards of Elections are required to verify the Social Security or Driver’s License number on each application. (17/32)
Fraudulent ballot harvesting can happen at two points: the harvester illegally obtains a list of Social Security or Driver’s Licenses numbers to complete applications without a voter’s knowledge, or, Board of Elections workers conspire to not validate applications. (18/32)
There is NO evidence of either happening at-scale in Delaware County. So, how were Democratic ballots harvested in Delaware County this summer? (19/32)
Competitive State House races saw the largest surge in Mail-In Ballot applicants, meaning candidates and their volunteers/paid canvassers carried the Mail-In Ballot Applications with them while door-knocking. (20/32)
The Mail-In Ballot Summer Application Surge was spread across Delaware County. Furthermore, fewer than 10% failed to return their ballot, which is significantly better than the statewide average. Delaware County Dems chased those applicants, hard. (21/32)
Delaware County Democrats defied political gravity through elbow grease by working a plan. Republicans need to do the same. (22/32)
Republicans need to treat Mail-In Ballots just like voter registration, where the GOP has excelled in Pennsylvania for the past decade. Wherever GOP voters are registered is where they should be solicited for a Mail-In Ballot. (23/32)
In a few weeks, a little over 300,000 Republicans will receive an application from their county Board of Elections to re-enroll in Mail-In voting. That’s over a quarter million GOP voters who understand the process. (24/32)
These are the low-hanging fruit. The GOP needs a program to chase those applications via digital ads, texts and robocalls…just like the Democrats do. And, knock on doors. (25/32)
After that, the GOP targeting must expand to re-enrolling 2020 GOP Vote-By-Mail applicants. (26/32)
Then, the GOP needs an education campaign detailing to GOP voters that there is a greater chance of getting struck by lightning than having your Mail-In Ballot uncounted. (27/32)
Put it this way…over 80% of PA’s counties are GOP-run and have no interest in disenfranchising republicans. In the 20% of counties run by Dems, the Dems in-charge have no interest in bouncing GOP ballots because it imperils Dem ballots which tend to be more flawed. (28/32)
Mail-In Ballot education and enrollment must be the PA Republican project for 2023, and, build upon it for 2024. Anything else is noise. (29/32)
Before Mail-In Ballots existed, the GOP dominated Absentee Ballots. Republicans know how to do this. Just have to dust-off the old playbook. (30/32)
Truth be told, Pennsylvania’s Democrats aren’t that great at ballot harvesting. If they are good at it, the hide it really well! In Florida, Republicans absolutely crush Mail-In Ballots. (31/32)
https://www.tampabay.com/news/florida-politics/elections/2022/10/28/florida-democrats-fall-behind-early-voting-lag-with-mail-in-ballots/
Republicans can start winning again by getting back to basics. If you would like to help, follow me on Twitter and sign up here. (32/32)
https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSceIyUZJE6_HHpuba-76z_iKE8YDdeAl3hJycKN47C2WqB-HA/viewform
Very well done, explains much!
Finally, someone with a workable plan instead of crying “fraud” and “dominion” over and over.
Am I the only one who reads and writes in English? The article contains several other "illiteracies."
Wow. The first good article on the election here at FR.
I understand the Three Mc’s are all over this.
Give me a BRAKE!...........................
Read the new Book,” The Parallel Election”. Describes not only this but how the ballots were switched. Delaware County switched Pa. in 2020 and in midterms for Senate. Courts looked the other way.
Used to live in Delco and it was solid Republican. No more.
I think you need to circle back so you understand the ask better.
My County of origin. It’s gone from blue collar Irish and Italian to “more diverse”.
Except Chester. Chester was always a ghetto dump. Philly has history, landmarks, and decent neighborhoods. Chester is a dump completely.
The furthest west of DelCo is nice. Chadds Ford has a lot of history and rich people. Numerous horse farms and large homes with property.
Good public schools as well. I’m sure that will be ruined with busing.
For diversity reasons, all editors are minorities now…
“Courts looked the other way.”
~~~
This is the big thing I took away from 2020.
I recall seeing over and over articles where judges refused to take these cases, or dismissed them, or whatever.
A lot of the lefties I encountered loved to say that the election was proven to be fair and legitimate but wouldn’t acknowledge that there were no real challenges to the claims. The media sniffled it, and censored it. State secretaries turned their backs on it. Judges/courts turned their backs on it. Most state legislatures refused to make any corrections for it.
Ballot harvesting is not fraud. It’s the “new normal”
I don’t know who is really behind it all, but it seems well organized. Obviously the DNC benefits, but who is the ‘emperor palpatine’? No one can say for sure. One this is obvious, many of the peoples listed above act like they are very afraid.
Dems also harvest hundreds of thousands of votes from senior and nursing homes, immigrant enclaves, and similar venues where they convince uninformed voters that they are doing them a favor, picking up (even filling out) ballots these people wouldn’t normally take the trouble to return.
And don’t underestimate the democrat proclivity to scan the obituaries and driver license applications and residence changes to get lots of mail in ballots to fill out knowingregistrars never check or purge rolls.
lol Brilliantly writed!
Once again, we see that fraud does NOT need to be widespread. It can be targeted and limited to just a few precincts. Its also a hidden process, done where the public has zero visibility.
Nearly all voters still feel that things are normal with their voting.
It does and shows the Republicans need to play the game that the rules allow not what they wish the rules were.
Going door to door handing out applications and likely helping people fill them out is not illegal apparently and not doing that is dereliction of duty for the Republican Party.
Great article.
It also shows the urgency for the GOP to get into the ballot-harvesting game. We’re going to be facing two major disadvantages going forward: 1) The Gen-Z vote, and 2) The mail-in/early vote/ballot harvesting. We can somewhat mitigate the uphill battle of #1 by aggressively engaging in #2.
But the “my fraud” crowd will not learn or take the hints. In 2 years they will be bitching about the same things all over again.
I remain convinced the lack of accepted court cases was because of the likelihood of success but no effective way to provide relief.
I hate mail and early voting but its not going away. If we don’t get in the game we will be lost in the wilderness for years.
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