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Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 21
The Institute for the Study of War ^ | October 21, 2022 | Katherine Lawlor, Grace Mappes, Kateryna Stepanenko, George Barros, and Frederick W. Kagan

Posted on 10/22/2022 5:04:26 PM PDT by Widget Jr

The Russian withdrawal from western Kherson Oblast has begun. Russian forces likely intend to continue that withdrawal over the next several weeks but may struggle to withdraw in good order if Ukrainian forces choose to attack. Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command stated on October 21 that Russian forces are “quite actively” transferring ammunition, military equipment, and some unspecified units from the Dnipro River’s west bank to the east bank via ferries.[1] The Southern Operational Command added that Russian forces deployed 2,000 mobilized men to hold the frontlines and are continuing to shell Ukrainian positions, likely in an effort to cover their withdrawal.[2] Ukrainian military officials reported that the Russian occupation administration is preparing the evacuation of imported Russian specialists, Ukrainian collaborators, and Kherson’s banking system.[3] Russian occupation administration in Beryslav and humanitarian facilities in Kherson City also reportedly ceased operations.[4]

[ Excerpt / Long article ]


TOPICS: Government; Military/Veterans; Politics
KEYWORDS: frederickwkagan; georgebarros; gracemappes; instituteforwargrift; invasion; isw; katerynastepanenko; katherinelawlor; kherson; putinlostkherson; putinsbuttkissers; russia; ukraine; vatniks; warpigsonparade
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To: Farmerbob

You’ve got to keep your eye on Bolsheviks. They are always air brushing history and gaslighting into the next phase of their psywar op.


21 posted on 10/22/2022 5:53:15 PM PDT by lodi90
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To: NorseViking

The Ukrainians are evacuating Mykolaiv? What source reported that? Are you sure that they aren’t also evacuating Kyiv? 🙄


22 posted on 10/22/2022 5:55:15 PM PDT by Salohcin
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To: Salohcin

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63272202
Olena, is it you?


23 posted on 10/22/2022 5:58:39 PM PDT by NorseViking
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To: Bruce Campbells Chin

Putinists are desperate. The 3 day special operation is now nearing 9 months long. Temporarily turning out the lights isn’t going to make Ukraine surrender. It will just increase their desire to remove Russian occupiers.

What’s really going on her is a gaslighting effort by Russia and its fellow travelers to make it seem Ukraine has lost and is no longer worthy of support from the west. That’s the only way Russia’s fake and Potemkin society can “win” this war. Its army has been soundly beaten and is on the run tonight from Ukrainian “farmers and miners”. Victorious armies don’t retreat, obviously.


24 posted on 10/22/2022 5:59:00 PM PDT by lodi90
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To: Widget Jr

Apologies if this has been mentioned elsewhere, but it looks like another four Ukrainian oblasts will be voting on whether to leave Ukraine and join Russia. Putin’s gettin’ the band back together!


25 posted on 10/22/2022 6:00:09 PM PDT by Blurb2350 (posted from my 1500-watt blow dryer)
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To: Blurb2350

Which four oblasts?


26 posted on 10/22/2022 6:06:13 PM PDT by kiryandil (China Joe and Paycheck Hunter - the Chink in America's defenses)
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To: Widget Jr

The title should be:

“How to win a battle and lose a war.”


27 posted on 10/22/2022 6:11:00 PM PDT by Red6
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To: NorseViking

Did you even read what you link to? There’s no mention on the story of Ukraine evacuating Mykolaiv or anywhere else.


28 posted on 10/22/2022 6:11:04 PM PDT by Salohcin
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To: Widget Jr

Putin is in it for the long haul and no matter what current conditions are on the ground, Russia is surely rejoicing at the political mess in Britain and the bleeding of the U.S. and European economy, the unsustainable U.S. national debt, spiralling inflation, and expected results of our midterm elections. Their strategy is death by a thousand cuts.


29 posted on 10/22/2022 6:15:05 PM PDT by Ciexyz (Prayers for America.)
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To: Petrosius
The ISW article makes the claim Russia is withdrawing from Kherson in the first line. Both sides are talking about how Kherson is either succeeding or failing blow by blow. Few are trying to figure out or explain what the big picture of what is happening there. My "2¢ and half guesses" are my opinion of what is going on around Kherson since the Kharkiv offensive started in September. In my mind, in this case, it is not as much about individual sources as doing the best make sense of what is happening over the last month and a half.
30 posted on 10/22/2022 6:15:28 PM PDT by Widget Jr
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To: Bruce Campbells Chin

“Allies”, including those online. Lately The Putin wing is really agitated over Russia winning by accomplishing... not much for two weeks


31 posted on 10/22/2022 6:23:55 PM PDT by Widget Jr (🇺🇦 Sláva Ukrayíni 🇺🇦 - Just say no to CCCP 2.0)
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To: Bruce Campbells Chin

NATO is carried on shoulders of US Neocons. One and the same.


32 posted on 10/22/2022 6:41:46 PM PDT by entropy12
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To: Widget Jr; Kazan

Neocon site no offense maybe the best honestly

Alternative news and podcasts are far different

Admittedly one has to look for them

These same sites all readily acknowledged the ukrop advance into kherson a month ago

Media dead silent on Bakhmut

Dang wonder why that is

Whatever happens literally

The Red Army camped in Kiev and Lviv

Zekensky hanging from a lamppost

Western media would describe it a crushing defeat for ol’ Vlad

Don’t doubt me

Yesterday I saw eyewitness accounts that ukrop artillery bombed many civilians targets in Donbas as they have since 2014

One hit an orphanage

Anyone see one word of that on western media

Of course not

And if they did they would say Russia did it

Despite me watching interviews with the obvious victims

Staged of course right?

Those damn Russians are so meanie they love killing the very people who wish to be part of Russia

Makes perfect sense to neo liberals and neo cons

I mean in WWII we bombed hell out of London and Birmingham

We showed those Nazis didn’t we

(Thinking Belushi)


33 posted on 10/22/2022 6:43:48 PM PDT by wardaddy (Sound and Fury Republic now home to more than a few globalists who really love the mainstream media )
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To: kiryandil

Nikolaev, Odessa, Dnepropetrovsk and Kharkiv. Presumably their Russian populations are smaller than the first batch of four, where the Russians have been treated so abominably by the Ukrainian govt., so the referenda probably won’t pass as overwhelmingly as in the first four . . . if they pass at all. Should be interesting.


34 posted on 10/22/2022 7:02:26 PM PDT by Blurb2350 (posted from my 1500-watt blow dryer)
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To: lodi90
Putinists are desperate. The 3 day special operation is now nearing 9 months long....

Yet incredibly, they still refuse to admit that things haven't gone exactly according to plan. Every single thread since this war began has bottled any reported Ukrainian success, and lauded the continuous flow of Russian victories. And yet...the Russians magically control less territory than they did a few months ago.

35 posted on 10/22/2022 7:04:45 PM PDT by Bruce Campbells Chin
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To: Widget Jr; Kazan; cranked
...support from two major political donors, liberal George Soros...

It figures that kazan and cranked are in reality aligned with George Soros.

36 posted on 10/22/2022 7:09:23 PM PDT by freeandfreezing
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To: ganeemead
Russian propaganda efforts would work better if the Russian soldiers and their allied militias didn't forget to turn off the geo-location features of their phones.

These Russian troops are withdrawing from the Kherson area. And they took pictures to prove it.

37 posted on 10/22/2022 7:12:57 PM PDT by freeandfreezing
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To: wardaddy
Those damn Russians are so meanie they love killing the very people who wish to be part of Russia

The pro-Putin club seems to have forgotten that Ukrainians have no desire to be a part of Russia. Even though they speak Russian the people living in cities destroyed by Russia, and who have suffered the torture, killing, and oppression of the Russians want nothing to do with them.

38 posted on 10/22/2022 7:17:54 PM PDT by freeandfreezing
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To: House Atreides
And they are substantially increasing their forces there.

If that were true wouldn't the barges headed to the right bank be loaded with trucks and soldiers and the empty barges headed the other way?

39 posted on 10/22/2022 7:19:26 PM PDT by freeandfreezing
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To: House Atreides
video of a Russian barge with geolocated data and maps.
40 posted on 10/22/2022 7:22:44 PM PDT by freeandfreezing
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