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Will Putin nuke London?
Washington Examiner ^ | September 26, 2022 09:29 AM | by Dan Hannan, Contributor

Posted on 09/26/2022 6:55:16 AM PDT by Red Badger

We are bizarrely one-tracked in our historical memory. Anything we dislike is compared to the Nazis. So, when Vladimir Putin actually invaded a neighbor, he was inevitably likened to Adolf Hitler.

But we don’t have to look far to find an apter parallel.

In September 1939, Stalin seized the eastern half of Poland. Unlike his Nazi allies, who simply absorbed the territory they wanted, Stalin made the conquered population vote in sham elections. Two congresses were established in eastern Poland — one supposedly representing ethnic Belarusians, the other ethnic Ukrainians. These two assemblies immediately petitioned to join, respectively, the Belarusian and Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republics. Stalin graciously consented, and the sham congresses promptly dissolved themselves.

Putin is following Stalin’s playbook, right down to the hammer-and-sickle flags being hoisted in the towns his troops occupy. Four Ukrainian regions are now being made to vote on integration with Russia. There is, however, an important difference. Six months into the war, Stalin was starting to turn things around. Putin, in contrast, is losing badly.

Just before the invasion, the impassive tyrant released a video in which he humiliated the head of his foreign intelligence service, Sergei Naryshkin. When the terrified spy chief was asked whether Russia should recognize the breakaway Donetsk and Luhansk republics, he stammered that they might be admitted into the Russian Federation, only for Putin to snap: “We’re not talking about that.”

Well, he’s certainly talking about it now. The formal annexation of four Ukrainian regions will allow Putin to claim that Russian territory is being attacked, justifying both the deployment of conscripts and, conceivably, a nuclear response.

Neither option would serve any military purpose. The draft has pushed thousands more Russians into protest or emigration, but it is of no practical value. Russia already does not have enough weapons for its regulars. What is it going to give 300,000 reluctant conscripts? World War Two-era T-34s? And what will be the economic impact of diverting so many young men from productive work?

The nuclear option (how extraordinary to use that phrase literally after all these decades) is even harder to justify militarily. On Wednesday, Putin sent one of his propagandists, former MP Sergei Markov, onto the BBC to threaten a nuclear strike “against Great Britain.” Russia, Markov said, would not use battlefield nuclear weapons but would go straight to ICBMs: “Ukrainians are our brothers, but Ukraine is occupied by Western countries who make a proxy army from Ukrainians. It’s Western countries fighting against the Russian army using Ukrainian soldiers as their slaves.”

It is far from clear how attacking the West would stop Ukraine from fighting and, indeed, winning. Even if the strike failed — we presumably have spies and double-agents, cyberdefenses, interdiction mechanisms, space-based shields — it would mean the end of Putin. The international community would stop at nothing to convict a man who attempts global annihilation. Putin’s name would displace Hitler’s as shorthand for evil.

Even during the depths of the Cold War, there was a well-understood no-first-strike convention. Until last week, Russia was clear that nuclear weapons were a final resort, to be used only in the face of an existential threat.

True, Putin expressed that doctrine with unsettling glee. “If someone decides to annihilate Russia, we have the legal right to retaliate,” he told an interviewer in 2018. “Yes, it will be a catastrophe for humanity and for the world, but we will ascend to heaven as martyrs, while they will just croak before they know what hit them.” On another occasion, he asked, “What use to us is a world without Russia?”

But no one outside the fantasies of some pro-Kremlin TV presenters thinks that the West is threatening Russia with destruction. NATO troops have meticulously stayed away from Ukraine. Hence Putin’s deliberate widening of the nuclear doctrine. Russia, he says, will go nuclear to preserve its territorial integrity. In theory, that means he might retaliate against the West if Ukraine recovers any of its lost lands.

It is possible, I suppose, that Putin has lost his wits and will pull the world down rather than face defeat. It is even conceivable that he might get away with it — that is to say, that there is no posse of sane Russians ready to stop him from pressing the button, that his nuclear rockets system will work better than any of his conventional weapons, and that the West’s defenses will fail.

But does it not seem more plausible that we are dealing with a tawdry, frightened dictator who realizes that he has made a terrible blunder, can see no way out of it, and is playing for time as defeat closes in?


TOPICS: Government; History; Military/Veterans; Society
KEYWORDS: bidenwarbandwagon; bogeymanpooty; concerntroll; concerntrolls; diaperjoestartsww3; emptythreat; emptythreats; globalistpropaganda; imaginarydefenses; joebeatputin; notamericaswar; notnatoswar; ntsa; nukes; pootyishitler; pootyistheantichrist; putin; russia; spacebasedshields; ukraine; ukraineisnotinnato
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To: Red Badger
"doesn’t let anybody get near him...................."

Which over time removes him from control.

41 posted on 09/26/2022 8:25:55 AM PDT by blackdog ("That's an applause line you useful idiots" )
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To: maddog55

“He could nuke...Chicago... and numerous Dem run cities and no one would ever know.”

Well, in the case of Chicago, if it is going to be nuked I would hope it is a low-yield kt kind of thing, and not Tsar Bomba; the latter of which would wipe out NE Illinois, SE Wisconsin, NW Indiana, and would probably poison the waters of Lake Michigan, which is a fresh water source for much of the upper Midwest.


42 posted on 09/26/2022 8:41:59 AM PDT by ought-six (Multiculturalism is national suicide, and political correctness is the cyanide capsule. )
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To: Leaning Right

“Britain has four ballistic missile submarines.”

And each is armed with 16 Trident missiles. That’s a lot of boom.


43 posted on 09/26/2022 8:45:49 AM PDT by ought-six (Multiculturalism is national suicide, and political correctness is the cyanide capsule. )
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To: FarCenter

“In The Third World War by John W. Hackett, Birmingham and Minsk were traded.”

I read that book back in 1979. A real page-turner.


44 posted on 09/26/2022 8:47:46 AM PDT by ought-six (Multiculturalism is national suicide, and political correctness is the cyanide capsule. )
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To: BobL

“I don’t remember Reagan starting a hot war in on Russia’s border, and then sending Ukraine front-line weapons there.”

Neither do I. But I do remember the USSR (really, Russia, because Moscow called all the shots) starting a hot war on its border in 1979 (Afghanistan); Russia starting a hot war on its border in 1993 (Chechnya) and again in 1996 (Chechnya); Russia starting a hot war on its border in 2008 (Georgia); Russia starting a hot war on its border in 2014 (Ukraine); Russia starting a hot war on its border in 2022 (Ukraine).


45 posted on 09/26/2022 8:57:25 AM PDT by ought-six (Multiculturalism is national suicide, and political correctness is the cyanide capsule. )
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To: BobL

Evil psychopathic murderous despots don’t “need” a cause or a reason.


46 posted on 09/26/2022 8:59:18 AM PDT by Vaden (Real conservatives will not allow our wagon to be hitched to fascist Russia)
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To: Huskrrrr

“I will go out on a limb and predict Putin will be assassinated before he pushes a button.”

I think you are right.


47 posted on 09/26/2022 9:00:36 AM PDT by ought-six (Multiculturalism is national suicide, and political correctness is the cyanide capsule. )
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To: Red Badger

“He doesn’t let anybody get near him..................”

So, all those recent photos of him have been photoshopped?


48 posted on 09/26/2022 9:01:37 AM PDT by ought-six (Multiculturalism is national suicide, and political correctness is the cyanide capsule. )
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To: ought-six

Yep and we knew enough to KEEP CLEAR of the Soviets during the Cold War, and so never had to deal with nuclear scenarios.


49 posted on 09/26/2022 9:03:31 AM PDT by BobL (By the way, low tonight in Estonia: 42 degrees)
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To: BobL

My point is that Russia has a history of invading its neighbors.


50 posted on 09/26/2022 9:04:43 AM PDT by ought-six (Multiculturalism is national suicide, and political correctness is the cyanide capsule. )
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To: Vaden

“Evil psychopathic murderous despots don’t “need” a cause or a reason.”

I’m not sure if I’d put Neuland in that category but Skunk Cabbage sounded just like that regarding Russia, when she ran in 2016.


51 posted on 09/26/2022 9:04:56 AM PDT by BobL (By the way, low tonight in Estonia: 42 degrees)
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To: ought-six

“My point is that Russia has a history of invading its neighbors.”

And we have a history of beating the crap out of countries that NEVER threatened us...but, again, Russia didn’t see a need to challenge that.


52 posted on 09/26/2022 9:06:03 AM PDT by BobL (By the way, low tonight in Estonia: 42 degrees)
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To: Red Badger
In the early sixties I was a member of Civil Defense in the UK.

My home was a long way from London. The theory was that if Russia dropped an atom bomb on the Capital, it would be units from the outposts that would be able to help.

I very wise family friend laughed at me. He argued that Russia would not do pin prick bombing, but raze the entire island. The recourses would still be there in 50 or 100 years when the radiation had dissipated.

53 posted on 09/26/2022 9:11:32 AM PDT by Churchillspirit (Pray for President Trump)
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To: Vaden
My fear - that Putin knows he is dying and decides (if he can be rational) to take half the world with him.

I pray I am wrong.

54 posted on 09/26/2022 9:14:35 AM PDT by Churchillspirit (Pray for President Trump)
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To: BobL

“And we have a history of beating the crap out of countries that NEVER threatened us...but, again, Russia didn’t see a need to challenge that.”

I know you’re young now. The Korean War had to have been before your time, as was the Vietnam War. Russia also challenged the Grenada invasion; the Panama invasion; Gulf War II.


55 posted on 09/26/2022 9:14:47 AM PDT by ought-six (Multiculturalism is national suicide, and political correctness is the cyanide capsule. )
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To: Red Badger

No nukes will fly anywhere before military communications are disabled.


56 posted on 09/26/2022 9:18:05 AM PDT by viewfromthefrontier
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To: MMusson

Europe’s Worst Nightmare:

Putin makes peace in Ukraine and Still does not send Gas to Germany!

__

That would only hurt Russia.

We can sell them all the gas they need.


57 posted on 09/26/2022 9:20:47 AM PDT by ifinnegan (Democrats kill babies and harvest their organs to sell)
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To: Red Badger

Putin is making his paranoia a self-fulfilling prophecy.


58 posted on 09/26/2022 9:21:55 AM PDT by ifinnegan (Democrats kill babies and harvest their organs to sell)
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To: Churchillspirit

Try this out:

https://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/


59 posted on 09/26/2022 9:26:57 AM PDT by Red Badger (Homeless veterans camp in the streets while illegal aliens are put up in hotels.....................)
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To: Red Badger

If Putin is stupid enough to launch missiles at NATO then he runs multiple risks:

1. How many of Russia’s missiles will fail to launch?
2. How many Russian nuclear warheads will fail to detonate?
3. Does NATO have an effective anti-missile capability?

The worst case scenario here is Russia launches an all-out nuclear attack and maybe seven or eight weapons reach their targets and then go off causing a war.

Then several thousand nuclear weapons get launched by NATO at Russia. Russian defenses are proving to be ineffective at stopping Ukrainian missiles and it’s questionable what they can do to NATO ICBMs.

So...Mr. Putin. Do you feel lucky? Well, do ya’ punk?


60 posted on 09/26/2022 9:47:13 AM PDT by MeganC (There is nothing feminine about feminism. )
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