Posted on 09/11/2022 8:26:33 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
Saturday, I posted on the new Ukrainian offensive in Kharkiv Oblast that has liberated several hundred square miles of territory and threatens to unravel the entire Russian invasion; see Russia’s Disaster in Kharkiv Turns Into an Avalanche of Failure as Ukraine’s Army Advances Without Opposition.
The main effort in yesterday’s report was Kupiansk, a critical rail and highway node on the Oskil river. That city is firmly in Ukrainian hands. As I noted yesterday, this places the main railroad line from Russian forces in Ukraine to Russia within range of Ukrainian tube artillery.
The Ukrainian offensive in Kharkiv Oblast shows some signs of slowing down, unlike the Russian withdrawal.
Russian Army currently experiencing in Ukraine its "2015 Idlib moment", when SAA was routed in Idlib & lost entire province.
Russia then launched its military intervention in Syria to prevent Assad's collapse.
Watch until the end👇 pic.twitter.com/xswdMqZa9V— QalaatM (@QalaatM) September 10, 2022
Luhansk Region Surroundings of Starobilsk. The Russians are fleeing towards Luhansk.#RussianArmy pic.twitter.com/wp8IKwTBIL
— NO WAR! (@Milan8662) September 11, 2022
Huge Russian column fleeing near Oskol River, Kharkiv Oblast after a major successful Ukrainian counteroffensive. pic.twitter.com/2QbSVMuwS9
— CaucasusWarReport (@Caucasuswar) September 11, 2022
Video of combat between Ukrainian and Russian soldiers.
The Ukrainian soldier filming says “oh how many of them have I killed today”. pic.twitter.com/oskqaTou5o
— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) September 11, 2022
But progress continues. I’d thought the Oskil River/reservoir running south from Kupiansk might mark a line of advance for this phase of the operation. New reports indicate the Ukrainians have vaulted the Oskil River and are in hot pursuit of the fleeing Russians with the possibility of re-conquering the fake Luhansk People’s Republic created by the Russians in 2014.
🔥🔥Confirmed
🇷🇺 forces are fleeing Svatove
– General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports.
pic.twitter.com/U25mP26f2V— NOËL (@Noel_dotsol) September 11, 2022
Ukraine being able to bounce the recapture of occupied Northern Luhansk from the march is looking more likely.🤔
https://t.co/IDwhXPNctl— Trent Telenko (@TrentTelenko) September 11, 2022
In the north, Ukraine has successfully reestablished control of all of its territory up to its border with Russia.
In my post yesterday, I mentioned that the Russian military in the town of Vovchansk had announced it was withdrawing. There are credible reports that the opposing armies negotiated the evacuation of Vovchansk and neighboring towns. According to the ISW/Critical Threats interactive map, this is what the frontline looks like today.
The Kharkiv front. Ukraine has reestablished control of most of its territory on the border with Russia.
Via @criticalthreats and @TheStudyofWar https://t.co/5pKWZaUiVK pic.twitter.com/sLGDGlQMcC— streiff (@streiffredstate) September 11, 2022
The Ukrainians have not advanced on the border crossing point between Pisky (UKR) and Logachevka (RUS), which is basically where the rightmost part of the blue-shaded area touches the Russian border. My guess is that they have no interest in stopping the flight of pro-Russian residents. It also looks like the Russians aren’t crazy about admitting them.
🇷🇺🇺🇦 Queues at the Logachevka checkpoint from those wishing to leave the Kharkov region for Russia. pic.twitter.com/A7rdyR9cPM
— marina alikantes (@Marianna9110) September 10, 2022
Russian volunteers are reporting a queue of around 500 cars formed on the way from Kupiansk to the Belgorod Region. A line of refugees formed on the way to the checkpoint in Logachevka.
"There are over 400-500 cars in the queue and around 200 people on foot." pic.twitter.com/hGjBPocDMP
— JAMnews (@JAMnewsCaucasus) September 10, 2022
Video at the broder town of Logachevka with pro-RU civilians/refugees setting up camps with what looks like 🇷🇺 EMERCOM assitance. https://t.co/oREg0xseoO
— Evergreen Intel (@vcdgf555) September 11, 2022
There are mixed calls on the town of Lyman; see my report from yesterday for the location; my assessment is that the calls of “contested’ are overly conservative. I think Lyman has fallen, but I also understand the imperative of being right on calls for Ukrainian advances.
The Donetsk front had some action. Indications are that the quality of Russian forces working there may be of higher quality than those routed over the last week. A Ukrainian mechanized platoon attempted a hasty attack without artillery support about 12 miles northwest of the city of Donetsk and got mauled for their efforts, losing two T-72 tanks.
Ukraine lost 2 tanks in an attack on Pisky.
It’s all here on video, tanks, infantry and Russian artillery strikes.
If drones with cameras would have been around during WW2, this is what they would have recorded. pic.twitter.com/LGub2iPO3b
— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) September 11, 2022
The Kherson offensive continues to grind out a few kilometers daily, despite what Putin’s mouthpieces say.
Zelensky’s counterattack on Kherson and Nikolaev has been a complete disaster. Total defeat for the Ukrainian side.
— Ian Miles Cheong (@stillgray) August 29, 2022
The Russians have voluntarily withdrawn some distance on the western side of this sector; the assumption is that they are bringing their troops within supporting range of artillery on the south side of the Dnieper River.
In Kherson region Russian army withdraw from some positions, – General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukrainehttps://t.co/DYCKqvQvHk
pic.twitter.com/AlpghVsJbs— Liveuamap (@Liveuamap) September 11, 2022
That could be, and it could also be that the Russians are withdrawing across the Dnieper—remember, all the bridges across that river are destroyed, and the only way to cross is by pontoon raft—and this requires shortening defensive lines. As much as giving up Kherson would be embarrassing, evacuating that city and everything north of the river would be a very astute operational move. Russia moved about 20,000 troops from Kharkiv and Donetsk across the Dnieper to confront the much-ballyhooed offensive. I’m pretty sure they’d like them back.
An intriguing story is bouncing around that the Russians and Ukrainians are negotiating the evacuation of Kherson.
“According to our information, from the evening of September 9, the command of the Russian Armed Forces grouping in the Kherson region began to negotiate with the command ‘South’ of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on leaving the occupied…” — 😼👇https://t.co/wfKZbCaE9t
— Garuda 🇪🇺🇨🇵🇺🇦 (@Simorgh_Blue) September 11, 2022
That could explain the relative passivity of the Kherson front and the slow compression of Russian lines. The Ukrainians might very well calculate that liberating Ukrainian territory, including Kherson City, without a fight might be worth the cost of letting 20,000 Russian troops pass through a “humanitarian corridor.”
There are major politico-military issues brewing.
If Ukraine, as seems inevitable, moves into the territory claimed by the Potemkin republics created by Russia in 2014, then the character of the war changes dramatically on the ground. In that case, the ground war objectives would come more congruent with the stated position of the Ukrainian government that they intend to reclaim Luhansk and Donetsk. It also means the “Special Military Operation” fiction maintained by the Kremlin is no longer viable.
While Russia was unable to carry out a single missile attack or airstrike on the Ukrainian offensive in Kherson, they have continued to carry out what can only be called terror attacks on civilian targets far removed from the battlefield. The city of Kharkiv is hit daily by rocket attacks from across the Russian border. I believe Ukraine has been constrained in its ability to retaliate because I’ve been told that one of the terms of receiving HIMARS and MLRS was that they would not hit targets inside Russia. The new northern border places Belgorod and other cities within the 30-mile range of the 203mm 2S7 “Pion” self-propelled guns operated by Ukraine. Any agreement with a Western nation does not govern these weapons. It is difficult to see how the Ukrainian government continues to allow attacks from Russia without retaliation.
The successful offensive makes it less likely that Ukraine will be interested in negotiating. As a result, president Zelensky’s hard line (Ukraine President Zelensky Sets His Terms to End Russia’s Aggression in Ukraine and Vladimir Putin Isn’t Laughing) got a lot harder.
Zelensky to Russia, tonight…
pic.twitter.com/6Hgot3zKhY— Christo Grozev (@christogrozev) September 11, 2022
Ukraine showing that it can wage a successful offensive campaign makes it much more likely that modern tanks and aircraft may be on the way.
The U.S. is now thinking about supplying Ukraine with Western tanks and IFVs.
This would be a crucial step that would strongly contribute to Ukraine winning the war.
🇺🇸🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/uRZl4CdH8i
— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) September 12, 2022
The next week promises to be just as exciting as this one.
They have a bottomless well of lies to draw on.
They can only reroute the grid so much if that’s even true
Freepers always claim total war which always makes me chuckle
They haven’t been near one apparently
Right now though in the east pro Russian citizens better be hauling ass or they are going to find out quick what it feels like
Ukes wiping them out is a two fold pleasure
Gets rid of pesky population
And bloodlust
And they don’t have to worry about anyone in the west except those of us who dig finding out about it
Right now someone’s wife is being raped before their brains are blown out
With impunity as valiant heroes
Total war can be fun when you are doing globalist bidding
If you want to defeat these Cabal/pro-SOros posts, there may be an easier way. I think what is posting these is likely a part of the intel operation which has taken over America, and established a decent-sized domestic surveillance infrastructure along the lines of the East German Stasi.
If I am correct, they might stop posting if every thread becomes a thread exposing the domestic surveillance in the US.
If you see these posts, and drop the link below in them. if these are regular Freepers, with a viewpoint, they will not care. But if they are the intel operation I suspect, they will have to choose between posting these posts, and exposing the surveillance machine, and giving up the propaganda push for Soros, to hide the surveillance.
The forbidden link is:
https://www.anonymousconservative.com/blog/surveillance
That’s more the MO of the Russian Army, and most of the pro-Russia population will flee anyway. But I’m sure they’re not being too punctilious about taking Russian prisoners.
On July 10, 2001, his article "The Declining Terrorist Threat" was published. Two months later 9/11 happened.
First Thread, 7/11/2002.
Second thread, 7/20/2005.
He spent GHW Bush's term opposing his policies and called the Valerie Plame leak was a political attack, not a inside job to attack the Presidency.
WSJ- 'Stupid' Intelligence: Some of our spooks simply oppose Bush anti-terror policy. October 3, 2003
I’ve studied this since 2014
Ukes are not accommodating to the separatist population which is a majority in most of Donbas and a major impetus for this invasion
However most of the pro Russian separatist infantry is not Russian army
It’s DPR and separatist militias like Wagner and Chechens who when unleashed play rough too btw
I’m sure they shoot Wagner on sight
Why not
No one is watching and if need be our media will claim it’s uke civilans and DPR is executing them
As we already know here given Russiagate and the 2020 election
If you own the media you can get away with anything
You have to truly dig to get alternate sourcing on this conflict
And it’s all with a grain of salt
However after scores of interviews with survivors in Donbas a picture emerged
One side is simply better served by killing prisoners and civilians who oppose them anyhow
Russia has nothing to gain by killing folks sympathetic to them whereas Ukraine does especially since they know the west has blinders on
There is no The Hague in Donbas
An irony considering Chechens there
The Putin man on the ground was a Chechen warlord commander
The DPR wanted to execute a fair mount of the Azov brigade neonazi leadership except the women when Azovstahl steel plant fell in Mariupol
Chechen commander said nope and that’s an order from the top
And they did not
It’s a knife can cut both ways
Civil war enmity
I understand I’m surrounded by the ghosts of it but we made up
Until now anyhow
Nice story.
Fir months you talked about Russian military on the ground.
Now suddenly it is Donbas militia
And that they'll blame it on the Russians, with the willing silence of the Western Media.
The same Media that was silent during the Holodomor of 1932-33.
A couple of months ago you said with arrogant certainty that Russia had already achieved most of its objectives. The only issue not decided was Odessa. Today, the ole pro-invader scalawag from Mississippi tells us he has studied these Ukrainian issue extensively and most of the Donbas supports the invaders. Well Jack you’studied from trashy sources.
Russia has no reserves They are all chewed up. It is like France in 1940—They are routed and in full retreat. The Ukraine air force will dominate the skies now. They are held back and will finish off the Russian invaders. Russia will be unable to hold back the Million Man Ukraine Army. The war will be over in weeks with a Full Ukraine Victory and a humbling Russian defeat. Surrounded, you will see whole Russian Armies surrender. It will be like The Germans at Stalingrad. This is the end of Russia as a nation and the Rise of Greater Ukraine as the most powerful force in NATO. They will force Russia to accept Modern ideas and pull down their gold domed churches! A new Democratic, Ukrainian Controlled Russia. To bring democracy to Russia like they have in Ukraine. Russia must be DeNuked too. All Weapons turned over to the USA for destruction. No more will these brutes be able to cause fear and terror in our new peaceful world. Let this be the Last war humanity need fight.
Nice update comrade.
Acknowledging you’ve been deceived by Russian propaganda is a good first step. Congratulations on this newfound self awareness.
So, for all of you arm chair generals out there second guessing Russia’s command decisions, please explain how Ukraine comes out on top? I look forward to your answers.
It’s simple. The Russian invaders are being driven back. Once they’re driven out of Ukraine the invasion is over.
According to the story originally posted, it’s not the Russian Army predominantly fighting in eastern Ukraine, it’s militias with the People’s Republic of Donbas. Reading comprehension is truly a lost art these days.
The Soviets moved people around forcibly to justify expansion of Soviet borders during and after WWII. It would not be surprising if Putin is moving pro-Russian folks to settle in the most coveted regions like the Donbas. The Russian economy doesn’t produce housing for refugees happily.
I just want to say, I have absolutely no idea what the facts are.
Are the reports of Ukraine winning victories true? Maybe, but the people telling me this have openly reported many chains of untrue information in the past without consequence. They don’t care, that they have or I know that they have.
Is Russia invincible with Ukraine fighting “outside their weight class” and is backing off for strategic reasons... Maybe.. but it all sounds a bit like “Trust Putin’s Plan” as well. And again, there is no way to actually know.
I think most would agree that the “News” about the war should be taken with a grain of salt.
“Reading comprehension is truly a lost art these days.”
Just reviewed the original article. Reference after reference to “Russian army”. Including this one.
“ Indications are that the quality of Russian forces working there may be of higher quality than those routed over the last week”
And this one.
“ Russian Army currently experiencing in Ukraine its “2015 Idlib moment”,”
In fact, I couldn’t find a single reference to militias. So help me out. What are you talking about?
I wasn’t arrogant
I said Russia controls most of Luhansk and Donbas
And they do
I’m about the facts of the war not the globalist narrative or Putins
If I had to pick which oligarch dictator to live under I’d pick Putin mostly since he’s unwoke
The western media today is one voice and it’s been proven in this war to be 95% bullshit
The west contributed to this war with maiden and stay on track till this day
“...I said Russia controls most of Luhansk and Donbas...”
No this is what you actually said, “...the separatist population which is a majority in most of Donbas...”
The Russian speakers in the Donbas are fighting the Russians. The Russian started the separatist movement with agents, Mafia tactics, and finally troops. Putin isn’t woke but he is pedo, a murderer, and has a net worth over 1000 times that of Zelensky. Putin also set himself up in permanent power which is another earmark of a real despot. You must hate to see the Ukrainians haul down all those Hammer and Sickle flags in the towns they liberate.
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