Posted on 06/10/2022 10:39:54 AM PDT by jimjohn
This is going out mainly to the truckers out there, but everyone should start thinking about this: Is there a certain point – a price per gallon if you will, where the wheels start falling off the supply chains, the economy, etc. to the point of no return?
A few weeks ago, I was talking with friends both on and offline; trying to calculate a number in which owner-operators and small fleets simply could no longer afford to operate under the current D.O.T. rules. If/When that happens, by logic, we assume one of more the following would take place:
1. Independent drivers (and small fleets) simply stop driving as they required compensation could no longer compete with other fleet drivers. Mind you, the stats say independents are only 9% of the trucking workforce. But along with the smaller fleets, they haul enough tonnage to make a major difference.
2. Work stoppage actions to force profitable compensation. Last thing we need during on-going supply chain issues.
3. Drivers are forced to ignore D.O.T. rules to maintain profitability.
4. Supply lines get limited to those that can make payment – which will have a domino effect to hurt the poorer, urban areas first, followed by suburban areas.
Without going through all the math, we came up with a number of about $7.50 a gallon for diesel. This number will fluctuate based on the local economy. If there is sudden diesel supply shortage (read: someone or something blows up another diesel refinery), that number will drop. Regardless, this number listed above we predict will set off a chain of events (with emphasis on #4).
Yes, just diesel. I’m not even talking about the price for regular unleaded. Remember, it takes diesel to get unleaded to your local gas pump. And if you find this black pill is hard to swallow, allow me to add a few elements to help it go down easier:
* expected violence upon official abortion ruling (and/or another "Summer of Love")
* full throated invasion into our southern border
* lack of fertilizer for the next harvest (read: food shortages)
* the government’s next attempt at lockdowns before November’s election
* this administration’s refusal to look at the geo-political reality here and around the world.
Now, to be clear: I see NOTHING preventing enough upheavals in the next 4-5 months to prevent a complete breakdown of society as we know it (a.k.a The Purge: When Life Imitates Art – Film at 11). That is, unless there is an abrupt and major course correction by state and local governments, as well as the people themselves. (Anyone see that on the horizon? Be honest.)
I believe more than enough folks have been ‘red pilled’. All it takes is the next fill-up at the gas station. Complaining, and merely speculating about ‘the worst is yet to come’ in non-productive, unless we are driving toward solutions.
So the question comes back to: at what number (or price tag) should we as Real Americans throw our hands up in the air and say to ourselves “It’s been real – we had a nice 246 year run”, and start implementing our own Great Reset, before it’s done for us (and to us)?
I don’t have anything less subjective than what you say.
But I think you are correct.
We are facing great trouble in the year ahead. And I think even a takeover of Congress won’t help because the Democrats (and the bureaucracy/Deep State will only increase their destructiveness - not just in D.C. but across the nation - in reaction to to being rebuked.
It will have to get exponentially worse before we have any chance of making it better.
There will be martial law but violence from left will institute it we conservatives will complain about the Constitution being ignored and do nothing, no different than 29 we quietly starved until Tojo gave us an out.
Don’t think a flyswatter will stop those kind of locust mentioned in Revelations..those will be stinging and men will suffer greatly from the stings.
My husband and I were just talking about that today. Deflation is just as scary if not more.
That can change quickly though, anytime I have to get gas (which is thankfully not often due to my lack of driving) I hear people bitching at the pumps for the prices.
The grocery store is where I really see the desperation on peoples faces. My Lord in Heaven, simple lunchmeat is over $10/lb. Chicken Breasts last year were $1.69/lb. They're $4.99/lb now. Milk is $4+/gal.
All the basics (bread, milk, eggs, cereal, soup, sugar, flour) have gone up anywhere from 50% - doubling in price. And the prices go up EVERY WEEK.
When we hit the tipping point, it's going to be fast and hard. I'm somewhat shaking my head that we haven't yet.
Keep watching. New mortgage applications are cratering because of interest rates, existing home inventories are up (in my area) significantly, prices are coming down and new home starts are way down too.
With the fed signaling four one-half point hikes between now and September, the housing market is going to take a beating.
Minor anecdote here. I live in a small town a few days ago a contractor redoing roads and drainage simply quit and walked off the job. Low bidding and other bad management practices were part of the cause but higher fuel prices were the nail in the coffin or your “tipping point’. I wonder how more are like that out there.
Shipping will be more expensive, and trucks will continue running. Prices of many products will continue to go up. Fertilizer has already been laid down, and crops are growing. Prices of agricultural products will go up, too. Fertilizer is not needed for harvesting. Due to more caution against pregnancy in many, the birth rate will plunge in suburbs and rural areas while enormously increasing in urban areas, among immigrant populations and flooding the suburbs with millions of new arrivals.
spot hire hot shots have parked their trucks in a lot of cases.
No need to bust your butt for negative revenue.
NOTHING has been done about voter fraud NO CONSEQUENCES, so those that believe there will be a HUGE RED WAVE are dreaming, the damage has been done to our election system AND it will continue because they have gotten away with it PERIOD!! Your vote today means NOTHING!! WHY IN THE HELL do you think these bastards have NOT changed course on policies, BECAUSE they WILL WIN with fraud just look at the GA. primary does ANYONE with half a brain believe for one second that Rafensberger won that election with over 50% REALLY???
next pain comes from food. It has been too cheap for too long... Those days are coming to and end.
Correct.
I drove from Charlotte to Baltimore two weeks ago. Heavy truck presence the whole way.
Tell me why a year’s worth of 10% deflation would be a Bad Thing.
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