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Kharkiv: Russian Troops Retreat From Ukraine to Russia: Planned Redeployment or the Beginning of Collapse?
Red State ^ | 05/10/2022 | Streiff

Posted on 05/10/2022 7:57:05 PM PDT by SeekAndFind

Over the last week, the Russian position north of Kharkiv has collapsed. There are two explanations, and both involve an endgame for Putin’s War.

Most commentary on military operations over the last week has focused on what is assumed to be the center of gravity of the Russian campaign in Ukraine, Donbas, and the siege of Mariupol. However, in my opinion, the real activity to watch has been occurring on the Ukraine-Russia border. Kharkiv had been under daily artillery and rocket fire, destroying most of it.

When I saw the city center of Kharkiv, destroyed by air bombs, I was shocked. Last time I saw such images on the photographs of the WWII. Then it was bombed by the Germans, 76 years later it is bombed by the Russians.


pic.twitter.com/4VsdJrrWGM

— Maxim Dondyuk 🇺🇦 (@maximdondyuk) May 10, 2022

However, you can see a significant shift in positions northeast of Kharkiv over the last week. My tweet below gives a side-by-side view of the front line today and one week ago.

What a difference a week makes. Russian positions a week ago on the left; from yesterday on the right. h/t @Militarylandnet


pic.twitter.com/5gVye2hQra

— streiff (@streiffredstate) May 10, 2022

The Ukrainian counteroffensive has pushed Russian artillery out of range of Kharkiv, but the big news is that, in advance, that covered 40 kilometers, Ukrainian troops have reached the border with Russia, and Russian troops seem to be withdrawing from that area of operations back into Russia.

Unconfirmed but solid reports that Ukrainian troops have reached the Russian border to the North-East of Kharkiv near the town of Ternova. Today the UAF General Staff announced that Russian troops have withdrawn across the border. This unconfirmed news makes that seem more likely


pic.twitter.com/UNt0aWChQi

— Nathan Ruser (@Nrg8000) May 10, 2022

As I’ve pointed out many times, the Russians attempt to do too much with too few assets. This diffusion of effort results in their inability to muster overwhelming force at the critical point on the battlefield. Even now, with Russia on the glideslope to technical and numerical inferiority, we see four separate operations underway.

There is one operation centered on Kharkiv, one on northern Donbas, a third on southern Donbas, a fourth around Kherson, and politicians pushing for a fifth campaign to take Odesa and create a land bridge that connects Russia to Donbas, Crimea, Odesa, and the Transnistria region of Moldova (Putin Decides to Widen the War With Ukraine to Achieve His Objectives). At most, two of these campaigns actually support one another. Some of these campaigns are critical (Ukraine’s Future Depends on These Three Fights That Russia Must Win), and some are sideshows, but the point is that only one campaign should be ongoing.

Everything else takes assets that could be used for the main effort and grinding them down. The concept of the “tyranny of numbers” doesn’t just apply to computers. Russia started the war with about 120 battalion tactical groups (BTGs).

At full strength, a BTG will have about 600-800 men. There is a growing body of evidence that Russian BTGs did not enter the war at full strength, and they are at less than full strength now. Moreover, only about 100 BTGs still exist. If you divide them up to carry out five different campaigns, no one has the strength to do anything.

The campaign around Kharkiv had no purpose other than to tie down some number of Ukrainian units at the cost of tying down a larger number of Russian units. There was never any danger the Russian force could generate the combat power to take a major city, and the perimeter the Russians held required many more troops than needed by the defenders. After the Battle of Kiev, Ukraine’s actions show that it does not intend to physically invade Russia (though it might use air, missile, and special forces strikes against key assets). A smart move would be for Russia to abandon the operation directed at Kharkiv, reconstitute those units, and feed them into the Donbas campaign where they could make a difference.

The other possibility is that we’re seeing the leading edge of a loss of will on the part of the Russian Army. There have been multiple reports of combat refusals and unauthorized retreats.

Trusted 🇷🇺 SpN source comment. Mobilized DNR units in Kharkiv direction were withdrawn to Russia due to low motivation. Units were untrained, lightly equipped, unprepared for battle. Rebellion started after first contact with 🇺🇦 forces. Artillery fire as main reason of panic.

— Russian_VDV_Textbooks (@VDV_Textbooks) May 10, 2022

Putin yesterday: "Everything is going as planned in Ukraine."
Reality in Ukraine today: Bridge collapsed under Russian forces who were fleeing from Ukrainian forces north of Kharkiv.🤣 pic.twitter.com/KCFAqXgceG

— WorldOnAlert (@worldonalert) May 10, 2022

An area of operations like that north of Kharkiv would be a logical place for this to start happening. The Ukrainians have devoted men and resources to the counteroffensive to force Russian artillery away from Kharkiv. On the other hand, the Russians are on a low-priority front and could be sucking hind teat, as they say, when it comes to food, ammunition, and fuel. If the troops are not down with the program, once you start moving them to the rear, if for no other reason than to shorten your defensive lines, it can be difficult to stop them.

Should this movement by the Russians continue, Ukraine will clear Russian troops from all of Ukraine, save Donbas, in the next week or so. What does it mean?

Suppose it is a deliberate decision to abandon a dead-end operation and use those troops to greater effect in Donbas. In that case, it will signal that Russia’s war aims have been reduced to annexing Donbas (see Russia Is Creating Facts on the Ground to Support Annexing Eastern Ukraine). Moreover, the tactical withdrawal from around Kharkiv would return to Ukrainian control territory, not within the boundaries of Donetsk Oblast, and provide Moscow with a bargaining chip in any negotiations.

On the other hand, if it is a morale collapse like that experience by the German Army in 1918, this problem is not going to get better. In the next month, we should see it happen again, perhaps serially, as units that have been in heavy combat for nearly 90 days and are now feeling the brunt of Western European weaponry decide they have had enough fun and start making their own decisions.

Either Putin is abandoning territory outside of Donbas to free up troops and set a new border for cease-fire talks, or the Russian Army is beginning to fall apart. Regardless of the reason, I think this move can be viewed as part of an endgame.



TOPICS: Military/Veterans; Society
KEYWORDS: 1putinsbeachfront; 1toldyou; 2hahahahaha; adieutoukraine; bidensbuttboys; bidenworshippers; butbutfrexperts; butbutqtards; chechens; chechnya; clownworld; deathcabforpootie; deathcabforpooty; deathtoputin; fullofstreiff; ghostofkiev; globalistpropaganda; goatsofkiev; hateamericafirst; kharkiv; natoaggression; neoclownstreiff; odessagoesnext; pedosforputin; putinlovertrollsonfr; putinsbuttboys; putinworshippers; redstate; russia; russianaggression; russianswinmariupol; scottritter; skedaddle; streiff; streiffisaclown; suckstosuck; tedstate; ukraine; vladtheimploder; yousankmyazovstal; zottherussiantrolls
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To: allendale

Sooner or later you will have to call his bluff.


21 posted on 05/10/2022 9:27:12 PM PDT by Oklahoma
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To: BitWielder1

Since this began any time Putin withdrew from an area it was reported by Ukraine they drove them back. I tend to think Putin state he had certain missions he was going to accomplish and layed them out pretty specifically. But the press consistantly pushes He wants Ukraine, or he’s going for the entire eastern area, or he’s going for Moldova etc. etc.

If you check what Putin said over what the press has stated it looks like he’s simply pulling back from areas he’s accomplished his purpose in.


22 posted on 05/10/2022 9:31:33 PM PDT by caww ( )
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To: All

It’s really important to understand that none of the bloggers who get quoted know anything. They all resort to telepathy and type out words imagining they know who was or is thinking what.

None of them know anything.

1) This is the first war in history where both sides had access to excellent satellite recon imagery. No one can do anything without being seen.

2) If you’re seen, long range weapons can hit you. This erases the concept of occupying this or that being meaningful.

3) Ukraine has 1500 locomotives. Only 300 are diesel. This is why electric substations are hit in the west.

4) 35% of US exports are arms. 22% of Russian exports are arms. Ukraine is an enormous arms expo and frankly, because Russian weapons are used by both sides, and much talked about by both sides, the marketing campaign favors Russia. It is surprising stuff getting advertised, like Turkish drones. We hear about US weapons shipped. The rest of the customers around hear about weapons used.

5) In 40 yrs no one will know or care about who started the war. Only the winner will be known. That’s all the history books will have room to mention.


23 posted on 05/10/2022 9:32:10 PM PDT by Owen
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To: SeekAndFind

It may just be that reality is catching up with the Russian army. I’m reminded of medieval air knights on horseback. Very powerful at first, but if you goad them into a long attack in the hot sun, they and their horses become exhausted and dehydrated and they can be slaughtered.
And now they have to face all this NATO weaponry.
IF Russian morale collapses and the Ukrainians have plenty of morale ....
It appears a lot of the Russian recruits see the reality and don’t see the reason for why they’re doing this to Ukraine
In marked contrast to the propoganda view believed by many of Putin’s fans on here.


24 posted on 05/10/2022 9:35:14 PM PDT by Williams (Stop Tolerating The Intolerant)
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To: packagingguy
#4. Not at all. Ukraine's goal is to drive Russia completely out of Ukraine and they do not care what anyone else thinks about it.

The attack around north eastern Kharkiv will move east, to relieve Ukrainian forces have been holding out in the northern Donbas. That's where Ukraine has been under "immanent encirclement and collapse" for a few weeks. "Imminent" because that is where Ukraine spent several years building up defenses and Russia has been unable to make any advances.

Which means in a few weeks, the experts who say they have been saying all along that Ukraine cannot win will have to change what they have been saying they have been saying all along, again.

25 posted on 05/10/2022 9:39:54 PM PDT by Widget Jr
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To: Williams

Inbox --> The Pentagon just distributed this rundown of U.S. military assistance provided to Ukraine: pic.twitter.com/qvKRA9ql2p— Andrew deGrandpré (@adegrandpre) May 11, 2022


26 posted on 05/10/2022 10:29:42 PM PDT by Berlin_Freeper
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To: allendale
"IMHO 1russia cannot win."

Agree. A big invading army that has not maintained the tires on $20 million combat vehicles is not going to beat a smaller defending army that has properly maintained its $20 million combat vehicles. There are way too many who should understand this who are ignoring the implications of what this means.

However it is a made mistake for Western leaders to not pursue a diplomatic settlement but to totally humiliate Russia.

Disagree. Direct threats to national interests supersede politics and diplomacy. Ukraine's national interest is to survive by expelling the Russian army. If that humiliates Putin that is his problem.

Feel free to disagree with me on this next point. So far Putin has not made any truly credible nuclear threat. The speculation about him using nuclear weapons is for the press so they have something to be hyperventilate over. Putin wants to survive, and nuclear weapons means he won't. The hints that Russia might rattle sabers means they are trying to intimidate and they are not serious about it.

27 posted on 05/10/2022 11:16:02 PM PDT by Widget Jr
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To: Cronos

Battlefield neutron devices with adjustable kill radius.

Also, no fallout across NATO countries would make it harder to claim they were also targeted.


28 posted on 05/10/2022 11:25:44 PM PDT by Bobalu (Some people are psychopaths and the left is their natural home)
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To: caww; All
[...] he had certain missions he was going to accomplish and layed laid them out pretty specifically.

1. "Demilitarization" of the Ukraine;

2. "Denazification" of the Ukraine;

3. "Neutralization" (no NATO membership) of the Ukraine.

4. Ending the "genocide on the Russian people" in the Ukraine.

Everything Putin said boiled down to those four goals. (It's useful to the discussion to explicitly remind us of those things.)

Translation:

1. Military victory over Ukraine.

2. Decapitation of the current Ukrainian leadership and installation of a puppet state.

3. This one goal is a relatively straight-forward one. Putin wants to force Ukraine to forever renounce NATO membership and he wants to force NATO to accept this and back off!

4. Securing the "sovereignty" of the two Donbass "People's Republics," i.e., effectively denying those territories to the Ukraine for all future time.

Translation of translation:

1. Ukraine loses the war. At least: Russian battlefield performance is optically better than Ukrainian battlefield performance. At least at least: Ukrainian losses are greater than Russian losses.

2. Zelinskyy either assassinated or forced to abdicate (and flee the country or be captured and tried as a war criminal). New Russian-backed puppet leader installed.

3. Puppet Ukrainian rump state vows eternal neutrality.

4. Ukrainian military operations to retake Luhansk an Donetsk territories cease, Ukrainians withdraw, LPR and DPR take their "rightful place" as sovereign nations and are recognized by Ukraine.

Now, let's compare those goals with what the Russians have actually accomplished or have any hope of accomplishing:

1. Russia doesn't have a snowflake's chance in hell of achieving any sort of "equitable" military victory over Ukraine. The best he's looking at right now is some sort of a draw. Russian losses (personnel and materiel) have been devastating. It will take years for it to recover, at least partially - but it will NEVER again be able to field as many soldiers. The world's estimation of Russia as a preeminent military force has plummeted.

2. Zelinskyy is alive and functioning. Zelinskyy has become a hero to the world, is being "courted" by all the major powers. His govt. is intact. His standing as a world leader has been established. His reputation as a stateman has been burnished. There is no foreseeable scenario where that would change.

3. Ukraine has been promised fast-track membership in NATO, and the E.U. has likewise promised to expedite the membership process. SWEDEN and FINLAND are now breaking from their longstanding position of neutrality and hurrying to join NATO. Russia's NATO border thus at least DOUBLES in length!

4. Putin still has some semblance of retaining the Donbass, at this point - though that could change once Ukraine is re-armed with NATO weapons and should it decide to "forge on." There's even a possibility that, if Russia is delivered a humiliating military defeat elsewhere, it might even have to surrender the Crimea at the negotiating table (I DON'T think that Ukraine can reconquer it / has the will to reconquer it.)

At this stage, let's also point out that Putin is also pursuing militarily certain UNSTATED goals, e.g.: The absorption of a contiguous land bridge stretching to Transnistria. This one is a no-go from the start.

Regards,

29 posted on 05/11/2022 12:21:37 AM PDT by alexander_busek (Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.)
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To: Bobalu

Does Russia even have those?


30 posted on 05/11/2022 12:42:18 AM PDT by Cronos
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To: Cronos
Does Russia even have those [neutron bombs]?

Yes. Easy peasy!

Regards,

31 posted on 05/11/2022 12:48:45 AM PDT by alexander_busek (Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.)
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To: alexander_busek

All that still boils down to the fact there is no win for either side......and further Ukraine will not be allowd in Nato regardless of what’s said now or in th future. That is just not going to happen.

How much of Ukraine Russia ends up with has yet to be determined. I suspect Crimea and the land bridge might.

US will be highly involved in whatever Governing body remains in Ukraine - with or without Zelensky.


32 posted on 05/11/2022 1:03:18 AM PDT by caww ( )
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To: Widget Jr

It is incredible how badly maintained, trained and motivated Russias war machine was


33 posted on 05/11/2022 2:22:23 AM PDT by Cronos
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To: Cronos; SeekAndFind; BiglyCommentary; Kevmo; MercyFlush; PIF; All

He is NOT studying latest tactics. He is trying to figure out how to start all those new locked John Deere tractors his troops have looted from Ukraine.


34 posted on 05/11/2022 3:31:53 AM PDT by gleeaikin (Question authority!)
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To: Owen; Cronos; Widget Jr; alexander_busek; Berlin_Freeper; SeekAndFind; Williams; BiglyCommentary; ..

“...both sides had access to excellent satellite recon imagery. No one can do anything without being seen.”

I just saw a video of Ukraine digging fox holes in a woodland. The trees had full foliage, and the ground would be invisible from the air. I don’t know how extensive these woodlands are, but springtime does bring this invisibility benefit for those who know how to use it.


35 posted on 05/11/2022 3:53:13 AM PDT by gleeaikin (Question authority!)
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To: allendale

“He just might deploy tactical nuclear weapons and risk the end of the world.”

He can’t do that all by his lonesome. At the end, Hitler was going bat poop crazy and some generals were just refusing his orders. He wanted Paris burned down to the ground after they were getting pushed out after DDay and a German general refused the order.


36 posted on 05/11/2022 4:02:24 AM PDT by BiglyCommentary
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To: caww
But the press consistantly pushes He wants Ukraine,

Lol, sure that Russian column 3 1/2 miles long trying to encircle Kyiv was just our imagination.

37 posted on 05/11/2022 4:26:05 AM PDT by tlozo (Trump-the Russian invasion of Ukraine is " truly a crime against humanity")
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To: Does so

Nope.


38 posted on 05/11/2022 4:27:32 AM PDT by dforest (We have to put a stop to this now.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Putin was trying to annex Donbas and the other breakaway region initially, but he overextended himself by trying to collapse the Ukriane government.

Oil and Gas cut this morning to Europe. Europe 3-6 months/18 months away from replacing the energy from Russia with another souce(s).

Putin has signaled that weapons of mass destruction are on the table. It is entirely possible that by withdrawal of his forces from direct contact with Ukraine/Western military assets that tactial nukes or other large Kill-A-Ton weapons are going to be deployed.

From what I’ve read all sources, is that Russia has lost 25K killed and wounded, and that the Ukraine has 50K killed and wounded.

Donbas will be in Russian hands free from 8 years of Ukrainian artillery attacks when this ends.

Biden has yet again advanced the Green Agenda with less natural resources reaching markets while providing no replacement capacity’s.


39 posted on 05/11/2022 5:18:36 AM PDT by Jumper ( )
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To: alexander_busek

The Orcs do have a chance of winning, but not through direct military confrontation, but by destroying Ukraine infrastructure and economy.

They are well on their way with the destruction of critical bridges and many locomotives (which cannot be replaced).

Because of Ukraine’s geography rail is the only efficient way to move large quantities of heavy cargoes - like ammo and weapons. Also the land is bisected by the Dniepr River and hosts of smaller meander rivers everywhere necessitating some 20-30 major bridges just to cross the 700-900 miles from the Polish border to the Orc border.

Then there is the self-inflicted fuel crisis, with wholesalers closing shop because they are forced by the government to sell at a loss, drying up civilian gas and diesel - with the attendant loss of jobs and income. In a few months, not only will the government be broke, but so will most civilians.

Because of all of these factors, the weapons and ammo being shipped in, are in jeopardy of ever reaching the front, certainly continued resupply is in doubt. Fuel shortages will hasten this disaster.

Grain harvest will be at best 40% of normal with most going to feed the Ukraine population. It is no longer economical for farmers to plant wheat and are planting buckwheat and oats instead.

The southern bridge at Bilhorod-Dnistrovis’kyi to Romania is apparently still functioning despite being hit many times. Meaning fuel can get in from Romania and some agriculture products can still be exported. Loss would completely cut off those items to most of Ukraine.


40 posted on 05/11/2022 5:34:38 AM PDT by PIF (They came for me and mine ... now its your turn)
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