1. "Demilitarization" of the Ukraine;
2. "Denazification" of the Ukraine;
3. "Neutralization" (no NATO membership) of the Ukraine.
4. Ending the "genocide on the Russian people" in the Ukraine.
Everything Putin said boiled down to those four goals. (It's useful to the discussion to explicitly remind us of those things.)
Translation:
1. Military victory over Ukraine.
2. Decapitation of the current Ukrainian leadership and installation of a puppet state.
3. This one goal is a relatively straight-forward one. Putin wants to force Ukraine to forever renounce NATO membership and he wants to force NATO to accept this and back off!
4. Securing the "sovereignty" of the two Donbass "People's Republics," i.e., effectively denying those territories to the Ukraine for all future time.
Translation of translation:
1. Ukraine loses the war. At least: Russian battlefield performance is optically better than Ukrainian battlefield performance. At least at least: Ukrainian losses are greater than Russian losses.
2. Zelinskyy either assassinated or forced to abdicate (and flee the country or be captured and tried as a war criminal). New Russian-backed puppet leader installed.
3. Puppet Ukrainian rump state vows eternal neutrality.
4. Ukrainian military operations to retake Luhansk an Donetsk territories cease, Ukrainians withdraw, LPR and DPR take their "rightful place" as sovereign nations and are recognized by Ukraine.
Now, let's compare those goals with what the Russians have actually accomplished or have any hope of accomplishing:
1. Russia doesn't have a snowflake's chance in hell of achieving any sort of "equitable" military victory over Ukraine. The best he's looking at right now is some sort of a draw. Russian losses (personnel and materiel) have been devastating. It will take years for it to recover, at least partially - but it will NEVER again be able to field as many soldiers. The world's estimation of Russia as a preeminent military force has plummeted.
2. Zelinskyy is alive and functioning. Zelinskyy has become a hero to the world, is being "courted" by all the major powers. His govt. is intact. His standing as a world leader has been established. His reputation as a stateman has been burnished. There is no foreseeable scenario where that would change.
3. Ukraine has been promised fast-track membership in NATO, and the E.U. has likewise promised to expedite the membership process. SWEDEN and FINLAND are now breaking from their longstanding position of neutrality and hurrying to join NATO. Russia's NATO border thus at least DOUBLES in length!
4. Putin still has some semblance of retaining the Donbass, at this point - though that could change once Ukraine is re-armed with NATO weapons and should it decide to "forge on." There's even a possibility that, if Russia is delivered a humiliating military defeat elsewhere, it might even have to surrender the Crimea at the negotiating table (I DON'T think that Ukraine can reconquer it / has the will to reconquer it.)
At this stage, let's also point out that Putin is also pursuing militarily certain UNSTATED goals, e.g.: The absorption of a contiguous land bridge stretching to Transnistria. This one is a no-go from the start.
Regards,
All that still boils down to the fact there is no win for either side......and further Ukraine will not be allowd in Nato regardless of what’s said now or in th future. That is just not going to happen.
How much of Ukraine Russia ends up with has yet to be determined. I suspect Crimea and the land bridge might.
US will be highly involved in whatever Governing body remains in Ukraine - with or without Zelensky.
The Orcs do have a chance of winning, but not through direct military confrontation, but by destroying Ukraine infrastructure and economy.
They are well on their way with the destruction of critical bridges and many locomotives (which cannot be replaced).
Because of Ukraine’s geography rail is the only efficient way to move large quantities of heavy cargoes - like ammo and weapons. Also the land is bisected by the Dniepr River and hosts of smaller meander rivers everywhere necessitating some 20-30 major bridges just to cross the 700-900 miles from the Polish border to the Orc border.
Then there is the self-inflicted fuel crisis, with wholesalers closing shop because they are forced by the government to sell at a loss, drying up civilian gas and diesel - with the attendant loss of jobs and income. In a few months, not only will the government be broke, but so will most civilians.
Because of all of these factors, the weapons and ammo being shipped in, are in jeopardy of ever reaching the front, certainly continued resupply is in doubt. Fuel shortages will hasten this disaster.
Grain harvest will be at best 40% of normal with most going to feed the Ukraine population. It is no longer economical for farmers to plant wheat and are planting buckwheat and oats instead.
The southern bridge at Bilhorod-Dnistrovis’kyi to Romania is apparently still functioning despite being hit many times. Meaning fuel can get in from Romania and some agriculture products can still be exported. Loss would completely cut off those items to most of Ukraine.