Posted on 05/05/2022 3:56:08 AM PDT by blam
The world’s largest fertilizer company warned supply disruptions could extend into 2023. A bulk of the world’s supply has been taken offline due to the invasion of Ukraine by Russia. This has sparked soaring prices and shortages of crop nutrients in top growing areas worldwide; an early indication of a global food crisis could be in the beginning innings.
Bloomberg reports Canada-based Nutrien Ltd.’s CEO Ken Seitz told investors on Tuesday during a conference call that he expects to increase potash production following supply disruptions in Russia and Ukraine (both major fertilizer suppliers). Seitz expects disruptions “could last well beyond 2022.”
Seitz said the conflict plus Western sanctions on Russia and Belarus has reduced fertilizer supply on global markets and could reshape crop nutrient trade, thus creating even more supply uncertainty.
“Could there be a change in global trade patterns as a result? We think that’s a possibility,” he said.
Fertilizer disruptions could be a multi-year event. Already, farmers worldwide are reducing fertilizers, which may threaten yields come harvest time. The repercussions could be huge: Lower yields may exacerbate the food crisis.
Here are the latest signs commercial farmers worldwide are reducing fertilizer usage because of higher prices or shortages.
Revealed last week, SLC Agricola SA, one of Brazil’s largest farming operations, managing fields of soybeans, corn, and cotton fields in an area larger than the state of Delaware, will reduce the use of fertilizer by 20% and 25%.
Coffee farmers in Brazil, Nicaragua, Guatemala, and Costa Rica, some of the largest coffee-producing countries, are expected to spread less fertilizer because of high costs and shortages. A coffee cooperative representing 1,200 farmers in Costa Rica predicts coffee output could slip 15% next year because of soaring fertilizer costs.
The International Fertilizer Development Center (IFDC) warned a reduction in fertilizer use would shrink yields of rice and corn come harvest time. Farmers in China, India, Bangladesh, Indonesia, and Vietnam — the largest rice-producing countries — are spreading less fertilizer, and may result in a 10% reduction in output, equating to about 36 million tons of rice, or enough food to feed a half billion people.
Fertilizer prices in North America have surged hundreds of percent since the summer of 2020.
“Maybe it will be a two-year problem and even then it will take two to four years after that for the deficit to catch up,” The Mosaic Company’s CEO Joc O’Rourke told investors during a call on Tuesday. Mosaic is a top fertilizer company in the US.
America has all it needs to be an island unto itself, but our betters seem to think that means we’re a racist, bigoted patriarchy, and so we need to be “taken down a peg” as a result.
I wonder if all this scare mongering is bullchit?
We'll know in a little while.
Seems to be to widespread for it to all be BS.
Don't know?
This is a world wide problem. This may be why China is hoarding grain, worrying there might be a famine.
Ain't globalism grand? There should be a long list of items we're self sustainable on instead of relying on 'global markets'. Anything to do with food for one.
Welllllll...
I live smack dab in the middle of farm country ( including some amish farms )...
Fields are being plowed
Crops are being planted
Winter wheat is a growin...
I believe what I see, not what some talking head on the boob tube tells me
Good to hear.
Actually this is very real.
The Haber Bosch process requires lots of natural gas to work.
It doesn’t work with solar, wind or hydro.
If you quadruple the cost of natural gas, NH3 costs will go up by 8x.
Nothing is going to get better until the pipe lines are flowing and well opened Biden a stooge crew have no idea how things work in the real world in utopia it is to be a slave to the state.
(From the article):" The world’s largest fertilizer company warned supply disruptions could extend into 2023.
A bulk of the world’s supply has been taken offline due to the invasion of Ukraine by Russia.
This has sparked soaring prices and shortages of crop nutrients in top growing areas worldwide;
an early indication of a global food crisis could be in the beginning innings."
"Bloomberg reports Canada-based Nutrien Ltd.’s CEO Ken Seitz told investors on Tuesday during a conference call that he expects to increase potash production
following supply disruptions in Russia and Ukraine (both major fertilizer suppliers).
Seitz expects disruptions “could last well beyond 2022.”
" Seitz said the conflict plus Western sanctions on Russia and Belarus has reduced fertilizer supply on global markets
and could reshape crop nutrient trade, thus creating even more supply uncertainty. "
"Here are the latest signs commercial farmers worldwide are reducing fertilizer usage because of higher prices or shortages.
Revealed last week, SLC Agricola SA, one of Brazil’s largest farming operations, managing fields of soybeans, corn,
and cotton fields in an area larger than the state of Delaware, will reduce the use of fertilizer by 20% and 25%. "
"The International Fertilizer Development Center (IFDC) warned a reduction in fertilizer use would shrink yields of rice and corn come harvest time.
Farmers in China, India, Bangladesh, Indonesia, and Vietnam — the largest rice-producing countries — are spreading less fertilizer,
and may result in a 10% reduction in output, equating to about 36 million tons of rice, or enough food to feed a half billion people."
Fertilizer prices in North America have surged hundreds of percent since the summer of 2020.
“Maybe it will be a two-year problem and even then it will take two to four years after that for the deficit
to catch up,” The Mosaic Company’s CEO Joc O’Rourke told investors during a call on Tuesday.
Mosaic is a top fertilizer company in the US."
Corn requires large amounts of fertilizer, and a large quantity of corn is used to produce ethanol (which produces CO2) that is added to gasoline and burned, and it is not used for food due to enviro-wacko regulations. Will the .gov let people starve to keep the glowbull warming scare going?
That's all baked in. Except maybe for the cost of bread or other wheat products when that wheat you see in the fields gets put on your grocer's shelves as a retail product.
How about you actually talk to a few of those farmers*? Or go on some farming forums. How are their costs looking?
*I already have. Here in the USA, we will have food. The prices will get nasty, though. Countries whose poor can't afford the prices are gonna have a problem.
It should not come as a surprize to you that the distillation facilities into alcohol for fuel are owned by Dumbocratics fund raisers.
Secondly, it is my understanding that the cultivation, planting, harvesting, and distillation of corn represents a net-loss of energy btu's that are produced.
In other words, it is cropland loss and a financial loss which is subsidized by the government,
just like solar panels, electric automobiles, and wind turbines.
You can educate the ignorant, but, you can't fix purposely stupid.
Hi.
I got an idea. Washington, DC is full of shit, a lot of it.
Ship it to all 50 states, problem solved.
5.56mm
If you quadruple the cost of natural gas, NH3 costs will go up by 8x.
None to blue states; let ‘em starve.
Sorry, DC is full of parasites. Don’t want’em.
Welllllll...
I live smack dab in the middle of farm country ( including some amish farms )...
Fields are being plowed
Crops are being planted
Winter wheat is a growin...
I believe what I see, not what some talking head on the boob tube tells me
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
How about a global perspective versus local?
What crops are “a growin?” — some crops require less nitrogen fertilizer than others—ex. wheat and soybeans, and savvy farmers will plant crops that require less nitrogen if ROI is not profitable...Corn requires a lot of nitrogen, wheat not so much...soybeans nada nitrogen.
Fields plowed? If wheat, when was the winter wheat planted? Usually in the Fall...before some of the wheat shortages took hold...certainly before the Ukraine/Russia conflict. Again, wheat does not require a lot of nitrogen—which is impacted by nat. gas...
When did the Amish buy their fertilizer for what they are planting? Farmers who bought last year are fortunate.
And true, for corn, will put down nitrogen in the Fall... savvy for them...Some have to put down more if wet fields in Spring...
Just trying to provide a different perspective as I have family member with PhD in Agronomy (Worked for years in agriculture) who has been concerned about global crop and fertilizer shortages since last August...They are not a talking head on “boob tube.”
I don’t think it is a bad idea to to plant garden, have some supplies on hand, invest in energy/agribusiness/energy companies...
Those stocks have increased substantially...crude nearly 50% since first of year..
I think the real drama is likely coming in Fall 2022 and Spring 2023.
Just my 2 cents listening to PhD in Agronomy...
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