I wouldn't call what the Russians did anything more than a gambit...their serious intentions have always been in the east and the south, and maps like these have been floating around for years.
Posted on 04/18/2022 7:23:58 AM PDT by Texas Fossil
“Macgregor notes the current Russian objective is to encircle those eastern Ukraine forces, cut them off from western supply lines, and then slowly and methodically eliminate them”
Putards like FLState (whatever) and Kazan say this has happened weeks ago....yeahhhhhh
The article claims him as an authority, by claiming he has been almost entirely correct.
Obviously, that is a significant overstatement.
“The Russians are not going to take all of Ukraine. Only Russian Speaking Separatist Republics. Ukraine will not get them back because they’ve already seceded (since 2014)”
Europe is a funny place. They have had borders and languages change more time than I can count. The change in separatist republics occurred after the Russians invaded. That will always be a sticking point for peace. Further, Russia recognized those areas as Ukraine first in 1991 and again later when Ukraine gave up it’s nuclear weapons.
Frankly, it’s a huge mess now. I don’t see a diplomatic resolution, that’s long standing, with Russia occupying territory it recognized previously by treaty.
Telling Ukrainians to surrender when they have been attacked is also easy.
Our state department is a wreck and the Euro’s as well as the UN types suffer the same meddling disease.
I imagine most Americans would be outraged if they knew all the games we have played for the past few decades in the Ukraine and how our tax dollars went to globalist NGO’s who don’t represent American values AND to the corrupt cabal of Ukrainian leaders.
While this does not excuse the move by Putin there is little doubt in my mind that it did and will continue to contribute to the disaster.
Ironically, the very people in power here in our own nation believe they are pushing “American values” when they do the bidding of the globalists. It is sad that they cannot see that the biggest threat to the “globalists” is the existence and power of the US! They must crush us to dominate the world and that is what they seek with assistance from within our own government. Interestingly, Russia was another nation that threatens them as do some of the former Eastern Bloc nations on the edge of the current conflict.
These fools are so arrogant that they 1) admire the CCP and 2) believe that they will be able to control the CCP when the time comes.
Scary times FRiend.
I highly suggest reading Macgregor’s book “Warriors Rage’’ about this very battle.
A very good read.
Especially when the Ukrainians can claim they have had significant military successes.
I don’t know about your analysis.
I don’t pretend to understand the details of this one.
I have a friend who was a Russian analyst, when I want perspective, she is my “go to”. Her view is not BS. She speaks the language and knows the history.
Its not my analysis, its Putard claims that the Ukes have been surrounded already. Complete Bunk.
MacGregor? I send you to his earlier BS claims as posted by another FRer
They didnt secede. Putin sent in his little green men to create such “secession”...
Putin has pushed several times and met almost no real opposition, in Georgia and then Ukraine, but also violating INF and the Conventional Forces in Europe treaty.
He believed Germany's economic and political ties to his regime would mean Germany would veto any forceful response.
He fundamentally misunderstood his own army's capabilities and the ability of the Ukrainians to resist, and how those miscalculations would derail the role he expected Germany to play. I think he expected Germany to come out of this as neutral, destroying NATO and even weakening the EU.
The Chinese also have reason to worry, not just because of Putin's military failures but especially because the West has shown it can create a walled garden for its economies where only those who play by the rules can play. North America, Europe, Japan, Australia and New Zealand still account for 60% of the world's GDP. Xi can push for autarky, but China still needs a lot of exports and those long sea lanes carrying raw materials are still critically exposed.
I’m not here to argue with you.
I thought it was an interesting interview.
End Trans.
Good points. Ironically, Putin achieved most of what he wanted AND appeared to have backed down the West without the invasion. I am having a hard time seeing what he gained by doing this even as I do not dispute what you said about how he viewed the feckless West.
He gambled everything for a small gain and it worries me. The longer it drags on the more worried I become because his position in Russia will grow far more precarious over time. What will he do when his own survival and the preservation of his wealth and legacy are on the line?
You nailed it about Germany and frankly I expected the same.
After Yanukovych ran off in the middle of the night to Russia, the democratically elected Ukraine parliament voted overwhelmingly to remove him from office. Is he still living in the house he bought in Moscow for $52 million?
Interesting…why would Ukrainian’s depose such a Popular President with Strong support from Eastern and Southern Ukraine?
Most people thought Russia was just bluffing before the war started, including most of the people in Ukraine. A smaller number thought Russia would enter the Donetsk and Luhaunsk regions only. I don't know anyone who was seriously predicting Russia would attack Kiev directly before the war started...even Zelensky himself thought that was BS.
I doubt Macgregor was out there predicting a full invasion before the war started, but if he was he's one of only a very few who called it correctly...regardless of whether he got the details of the battle plan wrong.
As for Ukraine's army in the Donbas...it remains largely surrounded, its supply lines are being disrupted, and its effectiveness as a fighting force grows smaller daily. Again, MacGregor is mostly correct about the situation on the ground there, even if the details/timing of the Russian battle plan aren't 100 %.
Macgregor has some experience with war.
He is a career Soldier.
I think that his opinion should be seriously considered.
Thanks.
I like discussion, but not arguments.
Several others were insulting to other FR members over their position on this. Which in my opinion is crazy.
There is no reliable source on what is actually happening there. Not any.
I wouldn't call what the Russians did anything more than a gambit...their serious intentions have always been in the east and the south, and maps like these have been floating around for years.
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