Posted on 04/18/2022 7:23:58 AM PDT by Texas Fossil
MacGregor thought the Ukrainians in the Donbass literally had 24 hours left a month and a half ago. That's lot more than just an error of timing.
The problem the Russians have is that every attempt to actually encircle the Ukrainians has been chopped off at the shoulders of the attempted flanking maneuver. So they still aren't surrounded, and still are being supplied.
Try to find even one-time since the invasion that he's admitted to overestimating Russian capabilities, or underestimating Ukrainian. Instead of saying "yeah, I was wrong", he keeps repeating the same predictions in the hopes that he be able to pull a proverbial "stopped clock" correct prediction out of this.
In the case of Ukraine, all Gaul is divided into two parts. There is Kiev and there is Eastern Ukraine. Russia does not have to troops to occupy a 3 million populus urban area like Kiev if Kiev resists. At the outset, Putin gambled that Kiev would fold and not resist. They did. So, he exercised some flexibility to move on to the much easier plan B which is to lock down eastern Ukraine where, unlike Kiev, he has a much more open battlefield and supportive Russian ethnic population. The question is if he is able to lock it down, does he gamble again and start marching on Kiev hoping they will be demoralized enough to sue for peace on his terms to keep him out of there.
Perhaps the leader of Yanukovych’s own political party said it best why such would be the case: “The Party of Regions faction and members of our party, strongly condemn the criminal orders that led to human victims, an empty state treasury, huge debts, shame before the eyes of the Ukrainian people and the entire world.”
If his objective was merely to secure the east of Ukraine, his gamble seems stupid and arrogant, risking a great deal for that which he could have had a bit more slowly by way of diplomatic and economic pressure.
But if his original objective was to reincorporate Ukraine into russia, a la a small military operation that resulted in a kind of modern-day Anschluss, then less so.
In that case, he merely miscalculated badly.
he merely miscalculated badly.
Very badly even if he declares victory by some measurement.
It will be at best a Pyrrhic victory because the Ukraine will never provide what has been and will be lost to Russia and it has made them less secure no matter what.
I cannot think of anything (even Trump’s demands) that could more invigorate or expand NATO than Russia going to war with its neighbors and the economic set-back is going to be brutal for the average Russian.
Not sure about the quote, however the people of Ukraine couldn’t wait to vote out Yanukovich like all Democratic systems? They couldn’t censure him? America had to assist in a violent overthrow?
I agree.
But the risk of getting all Ukraine was worth a little (a lot in tiny vlad’s eyes) more gamble than to just more firmly secure his hold on the east.
He still badly lost his bet. He has exposed russia’s military weakness, lost a lot of men and materiel, all but become china’s vassal state, damaged his economy, and reinvigorated NATO beyond any neo-con’s wildest pre-war dreams. But the gamble, seen in the light of conquering and re-incorporating Ukraine, was less insane, and more explicable.
Biden needs a war to save him.
I plead ignorance about the internals in the Ukraine.
What you said makes sense, but battles do not always make sense.
Putin may be more calculated than the average leader. He was the accountant within the KGB from what I have read.
I am no fan of Putin. But I am not a fan of the EU and Klauss Schwab and George Soros.
Putin is a nationalist.
The leadership in the Ukraine is in league with our Leftists ho hate the USA and our freedom. They are also fans of the EU.
Not sure which I dislike most.
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