he merely miscalculated badly.
Very badly even if he declares victory by some measurement.
It will be at best a Pyrrhic victory because the Ukraine will never provide what has been and will be lost to Russia and it has made them less secure no matter what.
I cannot think of anything (even Trump’s demands) that could more invigorate or expand NATO than Russia going to war with its neighbors and the economic set-back is going to be brutal for the average Russian.
I agree.
But the risk of getting all Ukraine was worth a little (a lot in tiny vlad’s eyes) more gamble than to just more firmly secure his hold on the east.
He still badly lost his bet. He has exposed russia’s military weakness, lost a lot of men and materiel, all but become china’s vassal state, damaged his economy, and reinvigorated NATO beyond any neo-con’s wildest pre-war dreams. But the gamble, seen in the light of conquering and re-incorporating Ukraine, was less insane, and more explicable.