Putin has pushed several times and met almost no real opposition, in Georgia and then Ukraine, but also violating INF and the Conventional Forces in Europe treaty.
He believed Germany's economic and political ties to his regime would mean Germany would veto any forceful response.
He fundamentally misunderstood his own army's capabilities and the ability of the Ukrainians to resist, and how those miscalculations would derail the role he expected Germany to play. I think he expected Germany to come out of this as neutral, destroying NATO and even weakening the EU.
The Chinese also have reason to worry, not just because of Putin's military failures but especially because the West has shown it can create a walled garden for its economies where only those who play by the rules can play. North America, Europe, Japan, Australia and New Zealand still account for 60% of the world's GDP. Xi can push for autarky, but China still needs a lot of exports and those long sea lanes carrying raw materials are still critically exposed.
Good points. Ironically, Putin achieved most of what he wanted AND appeared to have backed down the West without the invasion. I am having a hard time seeing what he gained by doing this even as I do not dispute what you said about how he viewed the feckless West.
He gambled everything for a small gain and it worries me. The longer it drags on the more worried I become because his position in Russia will grow far more precarious over time. What will he do when his own survival and the preservation of his wealth and legacy are on the line?
You nailed it about Germany and frankly I expected the same.