Posted on 08/30/2021 6:27:59 PM PDT by blam
North American fertilizer prices are nearing a decade high this week as soaring commodity prices allow farmers to expand crop production, boosting demand for nutrients essential to producing food.
The fertilizer industry is experiencing supply-side constraints while demand is rising.
Rabobank’s latest commodity note explained that farmers are expanding plantings and dispensing more fertilizer on fields to increase crop yields since ag prices have jumped due to money printing by the central bank, weather-related issues worldwide, and supply chain issues. The Dutch bank warns, higher prices will curb purchases of fertilizers.
“Matched against the furor of trade and geopolitics, fertilizer prices will near the equilibrium under which relative value creates demand destruction,” analyst Matheus Almeida said.
Bloomberg lists several factors driving up the costs of fertilizer, include “elevated freight rates, increased tariffs, higher energy costs and supply constraints for nitrogen, potash, and phosphate.”
It’s unclear how long fertilizer prices will remain at 9-year highs, but increased farming costs will put upward pressure on food prices. So much for the “transitory” narrative the Federal Reserve and mainstream media continue to pedal.
In early March, we quoted Citi’s commodity desk who expressed optimism in the agri space. At the time, they pointed out: “We remain positive on all Ag names, and our rank order is MOS, NTR, CF, CTVA, and FMC.”
There’s enough coming out of Washington to ensure an unending supply.
I got a chain letter once where you were supposed to go to the first name on the list and crap on their front lawn, put your name at the bottom, and mail it to five more people.
Beat me to it by miliseconds.
Oh Crap, if only there was something we could use as a substitute...
Well, I was speaking to some farmers a few years ago, and found that farming is a high-stakes economic game of risks, inputs, and outputs. If it takes more money for input...it will need to cost more for their output. Probably some marginal farmers on marginal land won’t be planting next year or will plant something if possible with cheaper inputs (less/cheaper fertilizer). So, less output, same or more customers = higher prices.
“I got a chain letter once where you were supposed to go to the first name on the list and crap on their front lawn, put your name at the bottom, and mail it to five more people.”
My dad got one, and it stated that breaking the chain would cause some number of people to crap on YOUR lawn overnight. We were concerned.
I’ve heard about The Great Reset. And this reeks of it
So, the dairy farmers and poultry people need to get together with the farmers. Win-win-win
In general terms fertilizer season is well over except for California and Florida. From March thru June. I used to buy and spread about 80 tons of nitrogen and about 200 tons of potash every year. Very expensive.
“I’ve heard about The Great Reset. And this reeks of it”
The Great Reset has already started.
They are screwing things up on purpose to expedite the collapse. Then they can fully implement their Tyranny. And it won’t be benevolent as they advertise.
Put up a sign:
If you can read this,
... you are in range.
That global grain production chart is impressive. Where’s it all going? I doubt population increase compares.
Beef production? Ethanol?
If someone has US numbers, that’d be interesting too. The crops in my region generally look great. Timely rains and all that.
No sh!t?
DAP had an average price of $695/ton, MAP $755/ton, potash $564/ton, urea $556/ton, 10-34-0 $631/ton, anhydrous $743/ton, UAN28 $369/ton and UAN32 $420/ton.
8/25/21 Progressive Farmer Magazine
(Prepaid for 2021 in Dec 2020 28% @ $185/t)
....and supply constraints for nitrogen, potash, and phosphate.”....
Hmmmmm.....where do we import these from?
Just squeeze a Democrat and you’ll get all the fertilizer you will need. Pelosi could fertilize the “back 40” in no time, and Stacey Abrams could do a whole county.
bkmk
Then on the other end of the fertilizer spectrum you have feed lots where thousands of cows basically stand in one spot all day eating and shitting and ruining that land with too much manure.
The real solution would be to have 200 smaller diverse farms to replace every huge farm. That would require a LOT of people to become farmers. Distribution would need a remake too.
Illustration of stupid design. 2 + 2 = 3.36294538 mentality
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