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The Sources Of Rip-Your-Face-Off Inflation Few Dare Discuss
Of Two Minds ^ | 6-9-2021 | Charles Hugh Smith

Posted on 06/09/2021 6:12:55 PM PDT by blam

We're getting a real-world economics lesson in rip-your-face-off increases in prices, and the tuition is about to go up--way up.

Inflation will be transitory, blah-blah-blah--I beg to differ, for these reasons. There are numerous structural sources of inflation, which I define as prices rise while the quality and quantity of goods and services remain the same or diminish. Since the word inflation is so loaded, let's use the more neutral (and more accurate) term decline in purchasing power: an hour of your labor buys fewer goods and services of lesser quality than it did a decade ago or a generation ago.

While the conventional discussion focuses on monetary inflation, i.e. expansion of money supply, the real rip-your-face-off sources have nothing to do with money supply. The rip-your-face-off sources are scarcities that cannot be filled by substitution or globalization.

Consider skilled hands-on labor as an example. Let's say some essential parts in essential infrastructure require welding. There is no substitute for skilled welders. But wait, doesn't economic dogma hold that whenever costs rise, a cheaper substitute will magically manifest out of a swirl of dust? That dogma is false in cases such as skilled labor.

The only substitute for a skilled welder is another skilled welder, and while theory holds that there will be cheaper welders who can be brought in from elsewhere, this is also not true: due to deficiencies in education and a cultural bias against manual labor, there is a shortage of skilled welders virtually everywhere.

But wait, can't we just offshore the project? Globalization always lowers costs, right? So by all means, load your busted boat trailer on a container ship to China, find a welder in Shanghai to do the work, and then ship the boat trailer back. Weeks later, you discover the plan and the specs weren't followed, so all the time and money was wasted. It would have been so much cheaper and faster if you'd just paid the welder in town a few extra bucks and had it done right in a few hours.

But wait--we'll just automate welding and have a robot do it all for next to nothing. OK, fine, pal--you manufacture the robot and program it to trundle out to the busted boat trailer, examine the breaks and do the welding so it actually works again. Go ahead and do that (at gargantuan expense), and then let's see the robot do it right in dozens of different jobs in all sorts of situations, and then add up the cost of all that compared to the relatively low cost of an experienced welder.

Meanwhile, back in the real world, people with high levels of craft skills and experience are scarce, and the fantasy of robots replacing them are untethered from reality.

As I've noted before, central banks can conjure trillions of dollars out of thin air but they can't conjure up experienced, motivated workers willing to work for lousy pay. As I noted last week, the minimum wage would have to double to even get close to the purchasing power of the minimum wage I earned two generations ago. If an economy can't pay its workers enough to live, it doesn't deserve to exist and should be shoveled into the dustbin of history.

Will Skilled Hands-On Labor Finally Become More Valuable? (8/20/20)

Fans of automation are rarely if ever the people tasked with designing, manufacturing and programming robots. Fans of automation don't recognize any limits on the cost and efficacy of automation because their faith in technology is quasi-religious, but in the real world, there are many tasks that don't lend themselves to automation.

If automation was as cheap and easy as many seem to think, then why does Amazon need 1.3 million human employees? In terms of automation, what could be easier than vast warehouses, vehicles and delivery? Amazon certainly has the money and talent to automate everything that can be automated, so why is Amazon hiring hundreds of thousands of humans and boosting wages for 500,000 humans? Amazon to raise pay for 500,000 workers (April 2021, NYT.com)

Although it's heresy to true believers in automation, humans are cheaper and create more value than robots in many settings. Simply put, there are limits on the cost effectiveness and value creation of robotics and automation.

A strong case can be made that automation has drastically reduced the quality of services and created the illusion of effectiveness. For example, you go online, check the inventory in your local outlet, drive down there and discover a bare shelf even though the online app indicates dozens in stock. Where is the value in this travesty of a mockery of a sham?

Those at the top of the wealth-power pyramid avoid the systems they profit from like the plague. Abysmal customer service, poor quality goods, apps that don't work--that's all the debt-serfs will ever experience. Those who own the systems know how awful it all is and they never touch any of the goods and services they pour into the slop buckets of the commoners.

Few seem to have noticed that we're already on the downside of Peak Globalization: labor costs are rising in China, too, for the same reason labor costs are rising here and elsewhere: the number of people willing to do dirty, boring, difficult work for low pay and no benefits is diminishing. Some of this scarcity is due to demographics, as the workforce shrinks, some of it is increasing opportunities for flexible gig work that pays as well or better, and some is a rejection of the status quo. Post-Pandemic Metamorphosis: Never Going Back (6/7/21).

Young Chinese take a stand against pressures of modern life -- by lying down (Washington Post)

Apologists for the wunnerfulness of globalization also fail to take into account the nationalization of critical resources or resources being cut off for geopolitical reasons. Nice copper mine you got there, but now it's ours, and we're raising prices. Go find a substitute for copper, cobalt, rare earths-- gosh, there are no substitutes? Wait a minute, economists promised us scarcity was impossible because there's always a substitute.

In the real world, essentials for which there are no substitutes are scarce, and the world is awakening to the power of those who control these essentials. Globalization was always based on the notion that there was always another place to stripmine, but now the entire planet has been stripmined, put under the plow or clearcut.

The primary source of cost-cutting and profit-boosting--lowering quality and reducing quantities-- have reached limits: if the package gets any smaller, we'll need a microscope to see it. Cutting corners has been going on so long that there are no corners left to be trimmed. Shrinkflation has reduced cereal boxes such that the boxes are not wide enough to stand up on the shelf.

Producers have to raise prices to maintain profits, period. And anyone who lets profit margins slip is cashiered, to be replaced by someone even more pathological and ruthless.

So let's review the sources of inflation:

-- Scarcities of labor across the board. (see job openings chart below).

-- Deglobalization / Peak Globalization.

-- Cost and value-creation limits on automation.

-- All the corners have been cut, now prices have to rise or companies will bankrupt themselves.

-- The 'Take This Job and Shove It' Recession (5/12/21) -- Never Going Back -- people are abandoning the status quo hamster wheel.

Few are willing to acknowledge these sources because they run counter the the fantasy world narrative that's spinning the frenzied hamster wheel. Purchasing power is prosperity, and since purchasing power is in free-fall, so is prosperity--at least for the bottom 90%. Trillions in free money have masked the decline temporarily, but what's transitory isn't inflation-- it's the illusion of prosperity that's transitory. And that's why nobody in a position of power wants to discuss prices being driven by scarcities caused by actual physical limits.

Those who think prices can't double or triple haven't experienced scarcities caused by actual physical limits. There are no substitutes for essentials or skilled labor, globalization has already stripmined the planet and central banks can't print experienced workers willing to work for rapidly devaluing wages in dead-end jobs while billionaires pay pennies in taxes.

We're getting a real-world economics lesson in rip-your-face-off increases in prices, and the tuition is about to go up--way up.



TOPICS: Business/Economy
KEYWORDS: automation; economy; inflation; labor; prices; shortages; stagflation
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To: Lazamataz

Yup,
BOHICA Baby.
.
I just Retired,
Think I’ll collect
Soda Bottles and
Live in a Van
Down by the River.


21 posted on 06/09/2021 7:07:49 PM PDT by Big Red Badger (Be Still and Know that I Am God. Rev 19)
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To: blam; 100American; 3D-JOY; abner; Abundy; AGreatPer; AliVeritas; alisasny; ALlRightAllTheTime; ...

PING!


22 posted on 06/09/2021 7:10:35 PM PDT by Tolerance Sucks Rocks (Florida: America's new free zone.)
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To: central_va

There is not wage inflation...

That’s the paradox. Employers can’t maintain their profit margins due to the expected increase in business taxes and thus are not paying wages that people are willing to accept. SO there are all of thes job openings, but the wages are so low, that people won’t work for that, and thus we have to import more people for the third world to take those jobs.

Welcome to North Mexico.


23 posted on 06/09/2021 7:11:26 PM PDT by Ouderkirk (Life is about ass, you're either covering, hauling, laughing, kicking, kissing, or behaving like one)
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To: Big Red Badger
"Down by the River."

Be careful, somebody shot their baby down there.

24 posted on 06/09/2021 7:18:17 PM PDT by blam
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To: montag813

It is foolish to take a shortage of workers due to government support payments incentivizing them to sit on the couch with a natural shortage. Also foolish to act as if monetary inflation is causing prices to rise when they are due to supply chain problems due to other government policies.


25 posted on 06/09/2021 7:19:56 PM PDT by BiglyCommentary
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To: technically right
$2,000 dollar signing bonuses everywhere you look for one.

And yet that hasn't helped fill open positions in many industries.

Ironically, the signing bonuses are probably making things WORSE for many employers by "churning" the work force and encouraging lateral moves. The company that offers a $2,000 signing bonus isn't attracting the lazy bum who has been collecting expanded unemployment benefits for the last 15 months. Instead, they're attracting the employee who is working for another company across the street who leaves one job to take another one just because of the $2,000 signing bonus.

26 posted on 06/09/2021 7:22:09 PM PDT by Alberta's Child ("And once in a night I dreamed you were there; I canceled my flight from going nowhere.")
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To: Pollard

Henry Ford paid double the average wage.


27 posted on 06/09/2021 7:22:12 PM PDT by BiglyCommentary
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To: eyeamok
I would make two simple points here:

1. Most people can't afford their current standard of living.

2. Bankers and Government exist so that people can pretend they can.

28 posted on 06/09/2021 7:23:59 PM PDT by Alberta's Child ("And once in a night I dreamed you were there; I canceled my flight from going nowhere.")
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To: central_va
Every public policy initiative over the last 30 years has been to reduce wages and earning power of US workers. This is leads to economic insecurity and a rush to bigger government.

Every public policy initiative purchasing decision made by a person or business over the last 30 years has been to reduce wages and earning power of US workers. This is leads to economic insecurity and a rush to bigger government.

That's just the brutal truth. The natural order of things is for people and businesses to charge as much as possible for what they sell (including their LABOR), and pay as little as possible for what they buy.

It's really that simple. Too many people live in a delusional world where they think everyone can get paid $35/hour wages while paying WalMart prices for products that are all made here in the U.S.

29 posted on 06/09/2021 7:28:25 PM PDT by Alberta's Child ("And once in a night I dreamed you were there; I canceled my flight from going nowhere.")
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To: BiglyCommentary
Henry Ford paid double the average wage.

That might be true, but it's also highly misleading in an industry involved in the production of complex products. The assembly line worker may have been very well paid, but none of the other workers in that complex supply chain were. The rubber producers, iron miners, coal miners, etc. weren't paid nearly as well as Henry Ford's workers. That's how something like a car could be produced cost-effectively in the first place.

30 posted on 06/09/2021 7:32:25 PM PDT by Alberta's Child ("And once in a night I dreamed you were there; I canceled my flight from going nowhere.")
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To: blam

Bam-a-lama
Doing Dong!
;)


31 posted on 06/09/2021 7:35:13 PM PDT by Big Red Badger (Be Still and Know that I Am God. Rev 19)
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To: Alberta's Child

The minimum standard of living has gone way, way up over the past several decades and many cofuse lifecstyle inflation with dollar inflation.

When I was young you had one car, one TV, basic sneakers, ate a basic burger, ate out infrequently, etc., etc.

Now people have 2 or 3 high end cars, 5 65” flat screen TVs, $100 designer sneakers (a diiferent pair for each type of activity), buy a quadruple deluxe burger, eat out 5 times a week, ...


32 posted on 06/09/2021 7:37:12 PM PDT by BiglyCommentary
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To: Alberta's Child

And what those non assembly workers been paid if Ford had not come along?


33 posted on 06/09/2021 7:40:48 PM PDT by BiglyCommentary
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To: BiglyCommentary

Wait a minute....no one told me about a quadruple deluxe burger.


34 posted on 06/09/2021 7:42:13 PM PDT by crosdaddy
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To: BiglyCommentary
Great post. You're correct about that.

I recently made that point to someone who was complaining about the cost of health care these days. He said his grandfather paid $25/month for a family insurance plan. I told him that he could probably pay $25/month for insurance coverage today, but it would only cover treatments and medications that existed in 1940.

35 posted on 06/09/2021 7:44:41 PM PDT by Alberta's Child ("And once in a night I dreamed you were there; I canceled my flight from going nowhere.")
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To: BiglyCommentary

It depends on the industry, I guess — right?


36 posted on 06/09/2021 7:45:09 PM PDT by Alberta's Child ("And once in a night I dreamed you were there; I canceled my flight from going nowhere.")
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To: crosdaddy

Otherwise known as the $16.95 fast food burger...


37 posted on 06/09/2021 7:45:19 PM PDT by BiglyCommentary
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To: Alberta's Child

I can remember the friendly neighborhood doctor making house visits. He came with the big black bag. It housed the liquid nitrogen cooling unit that maintained the stethoscope at -400 degrees F, so when you had a fever and it was applied to your chest, it inflicted maximum coldness. Or so it seemed when I was a young kid.

A lot of the rise in health care costs is due to government and big business picking up the costs starting in the 60’s. That house visit doctor would have gotten punched out if he tried to charge my dad 3 months of wages for one visit but today as long as some deep pocket is picking up the the cost, people don’t care.


38 posted on 06/09/2021 7:54:12 PM PDT by BiglyCommentary
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To: Alberta's Child

Yes, but my question (not rhetorical) was did Henry Ford and his assembly lines depress their wages? What would they have gotten paid if the additional demand was not there?


39 posted on 06/09/2021 7:56:25 PM PDT by BiglyCommentary
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To: BiglyCommentary
It's a good point. I wasn't trying to suggest that Henry Ford was depressing anyone's wages.

All I was trying to do was dispel the commonly-held myth -- rooted in Henry Ford's practice of paying his workers well -- that every worker should be able to afford what he produces.

40 posted on 06/09/2021 8:03:57 PM PDT by Alberta's Child ("And once in a night I dreamed you were there; I canceled my flight from going nowhere.")
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