DEAR MR. GORDON CHANG, WHAT EVER HAPPENED TO YOUR PREDICTION IN THIS 2001 BOOK OF YOURS?
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Posted on 03/24/2021 6:54:17 AM PDT by Onthebrink
Beijing has not announced births for last year, but early numbers indicate they plummeted from 2019. Births in the household registration—hukou—system plunged 14.9% to 10,035,000 last year. Because births so registered constitute about 80% of total births, He Yafu, a demographer, estimates total births for the country last year came in at 12,540,000.
Yi told me that the number of births for the country was in reality about 8 million and could not have exceeded 10 million.
(Excerpt) Read more at nationalinterest.org ...
Look at the demographics of every where else.
Very interesting. Thanks for posting. CCP could use some ZPG.
Predictable consequence of the forced “one child only” policies, the preference for males and the willful, widespread abortion of female fetuses. One consequence id that the CCP is reluctant to suffer the political consequences if their army of “one child” soldiers takes severe casualties. That is not an inconsequential factor in preventing a military invasion of Taiwan.
Thanks to widespread abortion, birth control and material desires, the birth rate in China is declining as it has throughout the West. Need people, go to Africa.
This is exactly why Prophecy is going to happen sooner rather than later.
Iran, Russia, and Turkey also have massive demographic collapses coming soon.
Heck, 25% of Russia’s population is Muslim.
Luke 21:28
China has had a demographic problem for 20 years. They have created a culture of one child. And so they are getting one child even though they are allowed two. Abortions are routine in China. They have far more abortions than anywhere else in the world. While their population may not be shrinking yet, due to longer life expectancy, they are topping out and will soon start falling. And that means trouble right now.
In the early stages of population growth through births, there is also an economic boom. Families spend money, and are very productive in the economy. But in the later stages of a population boom, the births fall off, and the elderly boom. This just adds costs without benefits of workers. China’s population is probably below India’s now. And their economy will soon stagnate as well. They have about 20 years of decreasing growth ahead of them before it becomes negative. The boom times are over.
Our companies don’t go to china for cheap labor. They go to China to pollute. There are few regulations in China. And you can bribe local officials to look the other way on any pollution. And when necessary you can buy slaves from companies who bring in temporary workers. When you see a Nike swish you should think pollution and slaves made those shoes. The NBA loves them.
With that, we would also see a return to "normal" birth rates, notwithstanding other economic factors impacting health and food supplies.
great we have about 50 million third worlders here who will fit right in. let’s send them to ji-nah
Indeed. Everyone imagines China’s condition and ideology is so different from the rest of the world. We have the same debt-fueled statist, materialist, entertainment, anti-spiritual ideology - they have just taken it to different extremes. Their Marxism was taken from the 20th century West, in their attempt to “catch up” with the West.
they have caught up, all right.
30 years ago companies went for cheap labor and fewer regulations - now there are a ton of regulations in China.
The reason US companies must buy there now, is because they used that period to control so many critical industries. Now we don’t have a choice.
American Idol recently had a Chinese born young man contestant who said he was abandoned at birth probably because of China’s one-child policy. IIRC he said something like he was fortunate to be adopted by US parents or he would not have made it.
Is there the tiniest slightest of turn in the media? The NYT just ran an article explains that restricted immigration was historically in-line with Progressive thinking and said that Biden’s policy wasn’t a poor policy because simply said he has no policy.
As China’s population declines to 800 mil the US’ climbs to 400. So the ratio goes from today’s 4-5x to 2x. That’s a huge shift.
So long as the Progs don’t take us full Venezuela China will never surpass the US economically.
If I had one Yen for every article over the last 50+ years on the coming imminent collapse of China, I’d have lots of dollars by now.
There is a choice. There are lots of other countries. If you do business in China you will lose your business sooner or later.
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That last paragraph is the absolute truth that nobody and I mean nobody else is saying out loud.
I think you have that a little backwards. The end of a population boom is where the economic growth occurs and that is what happened in China. The birth dearth not a baby boom triggers the economic boom. The lack of young people to backfill the jobs as they age out of the economy then leads into the demographic economic crash.
Essentially children are a human capital investment. A business invests in machinery to increase productive capacity and increase profit. However if the business fails to reinvest and replace the machinery as it breaks or becomes obsolete the output will fall and eventually the business will fail because it will not keep up with the competition.
China’s one child policy was like a company that defers capital investments to make the quarterly balance sheets look good. Management is banking on cashing out their stock options before the business implodes on itself.
I guess it depends on what you call the end. When the births stop out pacing the growth in elderly its the end (or I should say its the end 20 years later). And as I said, there is decreasing growth. When each 10 new elderly persons are replaced by 8 new workers, the problem begins. Labor costs go up, family costs go up. But the economic output goes down. An individual family makes more, and spends more. But the country’s GDP goes down. China is getting there super fast because of the one child policy (now two child policy). It took 50 years for Japan and Europe to get there. China is speeding to the issue. They thought they could just lift the one child policy and everyone would have more children. That is not happening. Women have gotten too used to one child, too used to abortions, too used to supporting their parents and grand parents instead of their children.
You are spot on. My son just finished a macroeconomics class and this very topic was covered in his research paper. Less workers in the work force means lower GDP.
The US is headed there in just a few years. According to this article, the US experienced the lowest birth rates in 35 years in 2019, but they have been falling ever since the recession of 2008. Add that to the baby boomer population aging out of the work force and the labor force participation rate will drop, leading to a lower GDP. I expect we will see the fallout of this in the next 10 years.
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