Posted on 09/23/2020 4:48:18 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
If there was some feeling over the last couple of weeks that Donald Trump was moving in the right direction electorally, we now have more empirical evidence to back that up.
ABC News has released their latest state polling and the President has now taken the lead in two key states, pointing to a race that is tightening and moving in Trump’s direction as Joe Biden continues to hide in his basement most days.
Biden still leads Trump with support among registered hispanic voters in the states — a voting group w/ a diversity of opinions.
In Florida, his 13-point lead trails the 27 point lead @HillaryClinton had in 2016
In Arizona, Biden leads 61%-34% among Hispanic registered voters
— Molly Nagle (@MollyNagle3) September 23, 2020
There’s obviously a lot of moving parts when it comes to an election ultimately decided by the electoral college. The response from Democrats to this will be that Biden doesn’t need Florida and Arizona. Yet, that eschews how connected everything ultimately is. If Trump wins Florida by 3 points, he’s going to be a clear favorite to snag one or two of the former “blue wall” states he took from Hillary in 2016. There’s not much of a scenario where Trump wins with that margin in Florida but can’t pull Wisconsin or Pennsylvania.
Arizona was also a state Democrats were really banking on to cement a Biden victory. It has been trending blue for a while. But if Trump is able to hold on there again, it’s a very good sign for possible shifts happening elsewhere.
Another thing to note here is that Trump is far outpacing Joe Biden with Hispanic voters compared to Hillary Clinton. We’ve seen hints of that in other polls and this newest offering undergirds that notion. If Trump over-performs 2016 with Hispanics by 5-10 points, that could swing the election in his favor. We are also seeing reports of sky-high voter registration among non-college-educated whites in the midwest. That’s a demographic that heavily favors Trump. In other words, there are a lot of factors lining up here for a photo finish, and all of the recent news is bad news for Biden.
I’ll note that the former VP has been calling lids (i.e. no more press access) on his campaign early in the morning a lot lately. It sure seems like his handlers are having to keep him inside because he’s having good and bad days mentally. There’s little other explanation for a presidential candidate who refuses to campaign, and when he does, he often shows up hours late. Something is going on the voters deserve to know about it. Meanwhile, Kamala Harris hasn’t answered questions in 42 days of being the VP nominee for Biden. That’s incredibly unusual.
Biden is floundering right now, and while I suspect Democrats have plenty to unleash in October, Trump has made up most of the ground he needed to make up to be competitive in November. Now, he just needs to remain disciplined, which he’s done a great job of lately, and finish this out. Biden’s playing prevent-defense against a top offense. That doesn’t usually work out well.
(Please follow me on Twitter! @bonchieredstate)
They rarely show their internal samplings, usually inflating Dems by several points.
Nobody watches them.
The riots will carry Trump to a win...then he should send in army with live ammo and shot anyone rioting..
The polls will get better and better as we approach the election...they do not want to look like fools...there fake polls are not working evidently
My state (CT) just sent a request for absentee ballot form to a “registered voter” at my address.
They haven’t lived here for _thirty_ years—no clue whether they are even alive or dead, or where they live if alive.
Trump has got PA, mark it down.
What makes you confident about PA?
Time for the media to save face. They likely do not want to look as foolish as in 2016. They have pushed the “Biden trumping Trump” narrative about as far as they can take it.
“My state (CT) just sent a request for absentee ballot form to a ‘registered voter” at my address.”
That’s really ass backward. The VOTER does the requesting for a true absentee ballot. The state doesn’t (isn’t supposed to) send them out willy-nilly. This is the fraud we were anticipating.
I can only guess, but the media/polls (same thing) got it SOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO wrong last time and its going to be such a LANDSLIDE this time, that they are realizing that even they can’t drag Biden across the finish line. So they better try to save a little face now.
Trump will triumphantly be crossing the finish line while Biden is still in the basement watching TV to see himself cross the finish line first.
Is this map your realistic, or worst case scenario?
Fill it out for your cat.
Election software firm Tyler Technologies discloses system hack: Report
“The only way he loses is with massive and I mean MASSIVE mail in voter fraud.”
Even with the traditional and customary 2-4% vote fraud that the Dems get, Trump will win. Anything bigger than that will be impossible to cover up and then there will be...”trouble”. I hope that they don’t try it. Well, let me think about that.
It makes people relate and it offsets the gun grabber Kelly running on his astronaut days.
There was also a big difference in her self confidence, she held herself different, walked different, was more comfortable in her skin and that came across on camera. Kelly is leading, if Arizona doesn’t want two democrat senators we need to get behind her. Most of us will vote for her, it’s the swing voters we need.
Yes. These smear attempts cry out their authors’ awareness and laments that their Basement Dweller/Ineligible Whore ticket is a loser. (Who could’ve guessed?)
One big reason is the Keystone State voters calling BS on Biden now (but not before) declaring that his is against banning fracking.
What’s interesting is that ABC admits it.
Even their own polls aren’t working for them any more. Consider below. Note, this accepts the polls at face value, which is problematic of course, but pretends worst case interpretation of current standings. So it takes their numbers and then also assumes 3.5% of Trump supporters won’t self-identify to pollsters. No idea if that is an accurate rate or not but based on other things I’ve read, it is likely at least 3%, probably higher.
Real Clear Politics often buries the fact that their averaging sometimes treats polls from as far back as January as equally weighted as one from last week, which makes no sense. If, instead one looks at the polls within the last month or so, one finds:
Wisconsin: Biden +6.6 - 3.5 = Biden +3.1
Florida: Biden + 1.3 - 3.5 = Trump +2.2
Pennsylvania: RCP shows Biden as +9 but this includes a Marist poll from 9/7 that seems to be an outlier. Taking that out, one gets an average of Biden + 3.8 -3.5 = Biden +0.3
North Carolina: Biden +0.8 - 3.5 = Trump +2.7
Michigan: Biden +5.2 - 3.5 = Biden +1.7
Arizona: Biden +3.2 - 3.5 = Trump +0.3
Minnesota: includes a recent seemingly outlier poll showing Biden as +16 but using their average of +10.2 - 3.5 = Biden +6.7. Still think this is not accurate, however
Ohio: only one poll within the past month which is Rasmussen showing as Biden +4. +4 - 3.5 = Biden +0.5 but this was at the beginning of the month before Trump started catching up in their polls. So, seems Trump at least slightly ahead now.
Iowa: RCP shows as a tie + 3.5 = Trump +3.5
Nevada: Only two polls, one from January showing Biden +8 and one from the beginning of September showing Biden +4. The +4 is more relevant arguably and +4 - 3.5 = Biden +0.5 but, again, this is before reflecting the massive inroads Trump has made in polling over the past month, particularly among Hispanic voters. It suggests Trump is currently ahead in Nevada
New Hampshire: Only one poll from September, about second week of the month - shows Biden +3. Less 3.5 = Trump +0.5
Maine: September polls show Biden ~+16.7. I recognize this doesn’t reflect the fact ME splits and it’s still possible Trump might win that, but since I am assuming worst case scenario using their polls, putting it all as Biden
Virginia: Not enough polling to show for sure- showed Biden +11 at beginning of month and he’s +5 now. Putting as Biden but getting close
Georgia: Trump + 2 or tied in most recent polls + 3.5 = Trump win
Texas: Trump ~+2.5 in recent polls + 3.5 = Trump ~+6
Colorado: Hasn’t been a poll since August. Shows Biden as +10 and only poll on record. Highly suspect given lack of polls but putting as Biden since worst case assumptions
New Mexico: Only one poll in September and was at very beginning of month, showing Biden +15. Again, suspect but assuming worst case.
So, what does all this mean? It means that even properly adjusting their biased polls shows the following: Trump 269-Biden 269 with the assumption that Trump picks up the other +1 for Nebraska (mostly because I gave the Maine +1 to Biden).
In other words, even interpreting these polls in the worst light possible to Trump, even assuming these polls are accurate (when they’re biased in favor of Ds) even these garbage polls are still showing essentially a tie, or, more likely, Trump winning. If even their garbage polls can’t hide what appears to be trending towards a Trump win, you know it will end up being a big win.
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