Posted on 08/25/2020 10:23:26 AM PDT by Red Badger
Gamblers are shying away from Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden after he failed to get a substantial poll bounce from the Democratic National Convention, cutting in half his once-massive lead over President Trump.
The latest from the betting-market site Smarkets still shows odds favoring a Biden win, but they are tightening, and Trump still has three more nights to make his case at the virtual Republican National Convention.
The analysis shared with Secrets said, “Joe Biden’s lead over Donald Trump in our ‘Next President’ market has more than halved since its peak at the beginning of August. Trading activity on Smarkets currently gives Biden a 56% chance of winning the presidency, a drop of seven points since the end of July. Trump has climbed eight points over the same period to 43% — his highest position in over two months.”
Patrick Flynn, the political analyst for the British betting site, said that the “anticipated post-convention bounce for Biden has failed to materialize in our market, with his lead sliding to 13 percentage points, down from an all-time high of 28 points at the start of August.”
He added, “We do not know whether this is due to the content of the event itself or the fact this scaled-down edition took place virtually in the midst of the ongoing coronavirus pandemic. Either way, it has provided something of a window of opportunity to Donald Trump as he accepts his own party nomination at the Republican National Convention this week.”
The site also unveiled an Electoral College map that showed Biden ahead 312 electoral votes to Trump’s 226. In order to win, 270 votes are needed.
The United States website "270 to Win" currently shows 278 electoral votes for Biden and 169 votes for Trump.
I think they are pinning their hopes on 2024. This is just a practice run which has been a disaster.
There most likely won’t be any........
The trouble with that is the ballots are being printed soon. Any change after that means a write in vote which makes the replacements odds steeper.
I just love how foreigners tell me what the deal is concerning my nations political system. Especially Brits. They hate us. Always have. They’ve never gotten over 1776.
Don’t underestimate the corrupt democrat party. They can concoct a third 2020 crisis for Trump to handle. They can tell their hos-in-waiting to release the made up story about Trump 30 years ago. They can tell their friends the bearded ones to do what they have been waiting to do since 9/11.
This means that if there is too much money on Trump, you raise his probability of success in order to lower the payout.
Product of a misspent youth.
Biden got only a dead cat bounce from his “stellar” and likely edited speech and days of doom and gloom visions for America.
Bookies cleaning up on the idiocracy!
He has Biden at 278 (And then he woke up).
They will claim that emerging from his basement caused him to contract Covid-19 and as a high-risk patient he cannot debate, talk, meet the public until January or a vaccine has been given to 99% of the country.
“The November 3rd date is absurd, we CANNOT go forward with it and must postpone for everyone’s safety.”
My dyslexia knows no bounds. :)
It wasn’t Hiden, it was Willie’s concubine that flopped.
IIRC, Kerry got a dead cat bounce in 2004; he got a small one and it evaporated quickly.
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