Posted on 08/25/2020 10:23:26 AM PDT by Red Badger
Gamblers are shying away from Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden after he failed to get a substantial poll bounce from the Democratic National Convention, cutting in half his once-massive lead over President Trump.
The latest from the betting-market site Smarkets still shows odds favoring a Biden win, but they are tightening, and Trump still has three more nights to make his case at the virtual Republican National Convention.
The analysis shared with Secrets said, “Joe Biden’s lead over Donald Trump in our ‘Next President’ market has more than halved since its peak at the beginning of August. Trading activity on Smarkets currently gives Biden a 56% chance of winning the presidency, a drop of seven points since the end of July. Trump has climbed eight points over the same period to 43% — his highest position in over two months.”
Patrick Flynn, the political analyst for the British betting site, said that the “anticipated post-convention bounce for Biden has failed to materialize in our market, with his lead sliding to 13 percentage points, down from an all-time high of 28 points at the start of August.”
He added, “We do not know whether this is due to the content of the event itself or the fact this scaled-down edition took place virtually in the midst of the ongoing coronavirus pandemic. Either way, it has provided something of a window of opportunity to Donald Trump as he accepts his own party nomination at the Republican National Convention this week.”
The site also unveiled an Electoral College map that showed Biden ahead 312 electoral votes to Trump’s 226. In order to win, 270 votes are needed.
The United States website "270 to Win" currently shows 278 electoral votes for Biden and 169 votes for Trump.
The Democrat National Convention gave a pretty good bump to Trump....
Bahahaha
Pretty sure half of nothing is still nothing. Butt, common core math........
instead of believing polls, wouldn’t gambling odds be incredible way to figure out what the people want?
500 Anti-trumo memes a day shared on facebook and 1000 tweets, but 3rd grade indoctrinator Mrs. Cortez, wouldnt dare bet $500 of her money on Biden winning.
What are the odds that Biden is still on the ticket by Nov. 4? To me that’s the only relevant thing to bet on.
Can we get from the US, on any site? Anyone know?
“his once massive lead over Trump”
What a bunch of crap.
I trust the gambler more than the polls. The gamblers are objective. When they bet on a college football game they don’t care who wins the game just as long as the team that they bet on covers the point spread. Gamblers are not emotional. They are rational. Losers let the emotions decide.
Bookies and gamblers have no idea about elections.
That's a problem, especially given Hillary was given 95% odds of winning.
I’ve seen sites that merely “post odds” favoring Biden, but a site I looked at that was actually taking bets had Trump with slightly better odds.
I don’t know if this site takes bets, but this was typical of the odds I saw:
https://www.usracing.com/odds/us-presidential-election
-120 is better than -110.
Wasn’t Hillary at a 80% chance at this point in 2016?
ROTFLOL. ......after convention flop......Biden’s odds lead cut in half .....
Bookies do have an idea about gamblers' habits...............
Yeah Biden will be ditched by the rats before the election...who they will roll out next in their desperation will be interesting...their candidates are chosen in a coke filled back room anyway...rat voters have no say in the process..hellary I reckon...
I’m not surprised.
I’m just some dumb rube, but I don’t know of anyone who voted Trump in 2016 who is not voting for him again. However, I know of one usually democrat voter who is talking about voting for him.
This hurricane is another opportunity for him to shine. He’s one heck of a project manager, and the opposition can only carp and complain.
Or burn things.
Bookies change the odds to keep the books even. Giving odds on Biden means they have too much money out on Trump. It’s simple math and has zero to do with popularity.
Just wait until the Presidential debates.
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