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COVID-19 Expert: Virus Will Rage Until Infection Rate Hits 60%-70%’
Gateway Pundit ^ | 05/12/2020 | Eric A. Blair

Posted on 05/12/2020 5:24:12 PM PDT by SeekAndFind

Isolation doesn’t work.

Dr. Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, says the SARS-CoV-2 virus sweeping the U.S. cannot be shut down by simply isolation or social distancing. Instead, the virus will spread until herd imminity kicks in.

“This damn virus is going to keep going until it infects everybody it possibly can,” Osterholm said Monday during a meeting with the USA Today editorial board. “It surely won’t slow down until it hits 60 to 70%” of the population. That’s the number that would create herd immunity and end the spread of the virus, he said.

Herd immunity kicks in when a majority of people have been exposed to a virus and thus built up antibodies, which — for many viruses but not all — means people cannot be reinfected.

Osterholm warned that a second wave could reappear in the fall, just as the flu disappears for the most part during hotter and more humid seasons.

“It’s the big peak that’s really going to do us in,” he said. “As much pain, suffering, death and economic disruption we’ve had, there’s been 5 to 20% of the people infected, … That’s a long ways to get to 60 to 70%.”

But the virus is most dangerous to the elderly. The Centers for Disease Control (CDC), in it’s latest filing on May 6, put the “provisional death count” at 44,016. The age of death breaks down like this:

0-54 — 7.8%
55-64 — 12.3%
65-74 — 21.2%
75+ — 58.6%

And because the coronavirus can be asymptomatic in as many as 50% of those infected, there are likely millions who have already had the virus but didn’t even know.

An antibody study was conducted last month in New York City and found that 1 in 5 (21.2%) of residents have already been infected with the coronavirus. There are 8.5 million people in New York City, so that would mean 1.8 million New Yorkers have had the virus.

At the time of the study, there were 16,249 deaths in the city attributed to COVID-19, which means the death rate in the city was 0.89% at the time — far lower than reports in the U.S. media.

Results of antibody survey last month in Los Angeles also found as many as 442,000 Los Angeles County residents might have already been infected with the coronavirus by early April, a number far higher than the 8,000 cases confirmed at the time. The survey suggested that the death rate from the virus could be as low as 0.18% of COVID-19 patients, which means the actual death rate in the city is far lower than reported.

Meanwhile, professor Michael Levitt, who won the 2013 Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 2013, says the lockdowns ordered by state governors were a complete overreaction to COVID-19 and may actually backfire.

Levitt, who teaches structural biology at the Stanford School of Medicine, has been analyzing the COVID-19 outbreak from a statistical perspective ever since January, according to Unherd.com.

He says that despite all the predictions, the data show that the COVID-19 outbreak never actually grew exponentially, which means the draconian lockdown measures were most likely unnecessary.

According to UnHerd:

His observation is a simple one: that in outbreak after outbreak of this disease, a similar mathematical pattern is observable regardless of government interventions. After around a two week exponential growth of cases (and, subsequently, deaths) some kind of break kicks in, and growth starts slowing down. The curve quickly becomes “sub-exponential.”

This may seem like a technical distinction, but its implications are profound. The ‘unmitigated’ scenarios modelled by (among others) Imperial College, and which tilted governments across the world into drastic action, relied on a presumption of continued exponential growth — that with a consistent R number of significantly above 1 and a consistent death rate, very quickly the majority of the population would be infected and huge numbers of deaths would be recorded. But Professor Levitt’s point is that that hasn’t actually happened anywhere, even in countries that have been relatively lax in their responses.



TOPICS: Health/Medicine; Science; Society
KEYWORDS: covid19; infectionrate
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1 posted on 05/12/2020 5:24:12 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind
But Professor Levitt’s point is that that hasn’t actually happened anywhere, even in countries that have been relatively lax in their responses.

That sounds reasonable and reassuring. But then, why did the Chinese react so strongly in Wuhan?

2 posted on 05/12/2020 5:27:24 PM PDT by Pearls Before Swine
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To: SeekAndFind

Fine with me


3 posted on 05/12/2020 5:29:18 PM PDT by Phillyred
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To: SeekAndFind

It’s not the infection rate we should worry about, it’s the death rate. If infection is 100%, and no one dies - who cares?


4 posted on 05/12/2020 5:36:34 PM PDT by Baldwin77 (They hated Reagan too ! TRUMP TOUGH - AMERICA STRONG)
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To: Pearls Before Swine

“why did the Chinese react so strongly in Wuhan?”

That is why the US and other Governments lock down. We will not know until Fall if the experts are right...

Maybe the USA lock down to early, the large outbreak did not start until mid-spring timeframe. Not enough infected to make a difference for herd immunity, this fall might be hell.


5 posted on 05/12/2020 5:43:38 PM PDT by DEPcom
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To: Baldwin77

Unless you are infected with the COLIB 2 virus that seems to be running unchecked through our country. It manifests itself in the uncontrollable desire to force people live as they say in the enforced grayness of socialism.


6 posted on 05/12/2020 5:44:03 PM PDT by Cold War Veteran - Submarines
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To: Baldwin77

+1


7 posted on 05/12/2020 5:45:25 PM PDT by lightman (I am a binary Trinitarian. Deal with it!)
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To: SeekAndFind
"Covid-19 Expert"

Oh come on!

8 posted on 05/12/2020 5:49:32 PM PDT by tinyowl
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To: SeekAndFind

We’re not going to get through this until this goes through us.


9 posted on 05/12/2020 5:56:02 PM PDT by _longranger81 (Speak up for those who cannot speak for themselves; defend the defenseless; care for the unloved.)
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To: Baldwin77

80000 dead already.


10 posted on 05/12/2020 5:59:39 PM PDT by Kozak (DIVERSITY+PROXIMITY=CONFLICT)
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To: Pearls Before Swine

Who knows? New virus, related to SARS, but worse. Logical on their part.


11 posted on 05/12/2020 6:05:37 PM PDT by PghBaldy (12/14 - 930am -rampage begins... 12/15 - 1030am - Obama's advance team scouts photo-op locations.)
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To: Pearls Before Swine
That sounds reasonable and reassuring. But then, why did the Chinese react so strongly in Wuhan?

No one, including the Chinese, understood the course of the virus outside of human intervention, and to a point we still don't. Italy (and later Spain) scared the crap out of governments around the world when they started out employing only minimal precautions only to see the virus rage out of control. Then the world watched as new infections subsided a few weeks after Italy's lock down, reinforcing the lock down strategy. We still don't know what the virus does without mitigating action, as while Sweden hasn't locked down, they have implemented significant policies to reduce spread, and they benefit from global mitigation as well as the efforts of their close neighbors. How would Sweden be doing with hundreds of thousands of tourist running around, large public gatherings, open borders throughout the EU, international air travel, cruise ships, etc? How much worse would Italy, Spain, England and others have been had they done nothing when the disease got out of control?

For now, we have to live with this bug. It seems to be a lot harder to control in very dense population centers, not so hard in smaller urban and suburban areas, and pretty easy in rural areas. Keeping it out of nursing homes would go a long way toward reducing the most serious cases. Apply the mitigating actions where they make the most difference and make small course corrections rather than sweeping actions.

12 posted on 05/12/2020 6:06:51 PM PDT by ETCM
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To: Pearls Before Swine

To cover up the leak of virus from their virology lab in Wuhan.


13 posted on 05/12/2020 6:09:33 PM PDT by rfp1234 (Caveat Emperor)
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To: SeekAndFind

LIBERATE WISCONSIN!


14 posted on 05/12/2020 6:20:01 PM PDT by Diana in Wisconsin (I don't have 'hobbies.' I'm developing a robust post-Apocalyptic skill set.)
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To: SeekAndFind

The narrative now is to inflate the curve again since we were itching to “flat”. What a total scam and deadly on so many levels.


15 posted on 05/12/2020 6:22:39 PM PDT by shanover (...To disarm the people is the best and most effectual way to enslave them.-S.Adams)
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To: Pearls Before Swine

...why did the Chinese react so strongly in Wuhan?
_________________________________________

1)They knew it was virulent, their population was vulnerable and worst of all, they would be castigated internationally for the release.

2) They saw an opportunity to spread it and simultaneously exploit the situation to their own putative advantage.

3) They are politically frugal and didn’t want to let the crisis go to waste.


16 posted on 05/12/2020 6:29:46 PM PDT by reformedliberal
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To: SeekAndFind

Meanwhile the lockdown indefinitely lobby is floating the idea that there’s no guarantee of immunity if you’ve had the virus once. Anything to scare the prolls into maintaining the lockdown.


17 posted on 05/12/2020 6:31:57 PM PDT by Tallguy (Facts be d@mned! The narrative must be protected at all costs!))
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To: Baldwin77

It’s not the infection rate we should worry about, it’s the death rate.

If infection is 100%, and no one dies - who cares?

Covid 19 then becomes like the common cold or seasonal allergies.


18 posted on 05/12/2020 6:47:38 PM PDT by Grampa Dave (Are the ChiComs/PRC, owners of America's Fake news media, WHO, CDCNN, Dems, the real Deep Staters!)
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To: DEPcom

This reality is from your home page. Thanks for posting it.

I think the final numbers will be 0.2 to 0.8% of confirm cases, just to be on record. You can find where I stated that in the pass.
Be wary of Demigods they are out to influence people by using their fears…

Yes some Governors have foolishly overstep their powers

Yes the Coronavirus is real, it is a danger to people older then 65 and others with underlying heath conditions. If you are not one those you have know need to worry about dying. Just be mindful of your health if you go around a person over 65 or people with heath conditions

No the virus does not come from 5G do not believe the Demigods

Yes President Trump believes this virus is serious and should be taken serious. He gives a briefing everyday stating so. The President has power over who is his advisors. If they are lying to him, I am sure he will figure it out and fired them.

Experts stated this virus outbreak will die down in the hot humid weather. The hot weather is just starting and the virus is dying down. Experts also believe the virus could come back in the fall just like the flu does every year.

Today a lot places have AC, the AC may allow the virus to spread during the summer but not as bad as the Flu season months

We do not have a vaccine for this, it might not be with us for a long time, we have to learn how to live with it without shutting down. We now have possible treatments


19 posted on 05/12/2020 6:51:40 PM PDT by Grampa Dave (Are the ChiComs/PRC, owners of America's Fake news media, WHO, CDCNN, Dems, the real Deep Staters!)
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To: shanover

The goal is probably to fine tune measures to get to the appropriate infection rate, a rate the medical system can withstand without collapsing. The dramatic reduction of infection rate outside NYC probably surprised the health people. We were surprised that we didn’t need the medical ships or the emergency hospitals that were thrown up. Was it over-reaction? I don’t think so given what we actually knew at the time. I wouldn’t be surprised if there were back channel private communications from China saying how bad it could get.

The second wave of Spanish flu in 1918 was triggered by all the soldiers returning from Europe to the states. The only thing we have like that today is the usual domestic and international jet travel which isn’t going to resume quickly. So we may not get a huge fall wave.


20 posted on 05/12/2020 7:01:31 PM PDT by ProtectOurFreedom
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