The narrative now is to inflate the curve again since we were itching to “flat”. What a total scam and deadly on so many levels.
The goal is probably to fine tune measures to get to the appropriate infection rate, a rate the medical system can withstand without collapsing. The dramatic reduction of infection rate outside NYC probably surprised the health people. We were surprised that we didn’t need the medical ships or the emergency hospitals that were thrown up. Was it over-reaction? I don’t think so given what we actually knew at the time. I wouldn’t be surprised if there were back channel private communications from China saying how bad it could get.
The second wave of Spanish flu in 1918 was triggered by all the soldiers returning from Europe to the states. The only thing we have like that today is the usual domestic and international jet travel which isn’t going to resume quickly. So we may not get a huge fall wave.