Posted on 03/12/2020 10:29:28 PM PDT by amorphous
Yesterday the World Health Organization officially declared Covid-19 a pandemic (like we didn’t already know this.) As well, President Trump addressed the nation, closing American borders to all flights from Europe and announcing some ways he intends to help the people of the United States financially.
In unofficial terms, this is sh#t getting real.
Things are going to get worse – possibly much worse – before they get better. Illness completely aside, this will cause financial problems that many folks will feel for years after the pandemic is over.
The biggest question people are asking now is, “When?”
When will the US begin to see measures being taken to lockdown areas or put people into quarantine? What would that lockdown look like? How long will quarantines last?
We can look at how this has gone in other countries to get a general idea of the pattern. Of course, we’re Americans and we do things differently. Our geography is quite different as is our population density. So this isn’t an exact science. We’re looking at patterns to predict (not in a crystal ball kind of way but an analysis kind of way) what could happen here. Here’s how things have gone in Italy and China.
We can still learn a lot from observing the patterns of the breakdowns there.
The United States is probably closer culturally to Italy and other European countries than we are to China. For example, Italy is far more concerned about human rights than China. However, geographically, we’re a lot more similar to China than we are to Italy. China has 9.3 million square kilometers and the United States has 9.1 million square kilometers. Meanwhile, Italy is 301,340 square kilometers.
Both of these things play a role in the spread of the virus and containment efforts.
What about China? Well, I don’t trust the numbers and information coming out of China to include them in this model by very much, but note that the situation of which we’re aware has been going on for about 8 weeks. The first cases of a mystery illness were heard of when Dr. Li Wenliang, who later died of the coronavirus, blew the whistle on China on December 30, 2019.
To our knowledge, the quarantines began in Wuhan on January 22. So from the first patients to the initial lockdowns was 23 days. From the date the first noted illness became public to now has been 73 days. From the date of the first quarantines in Wuhan until now has been 51 days. Although the quarantine has been loosened, there are still serious restrictions on movement in China. The country may or may not be getting back to normal, depending on who you believe. If they are not getting back to normal, then this 7-week window is inaccurate.
Back to Europe. Italy, specifically.
On about the 20th of February, three cases of Covid-19 were confirmed in Northern Italy. Officials acted quickly to lock the area down but unfortunately, their quick actions weren’t enough. What began as a lockdown of a few villages in the Lombardy region in northern Italy on the 21st spread to a nationwide lockdown on March 9th.
From the first patients to local lockdowns was one day. From the first patients to the entire country being quarantined was 22 days. In just 22 days, the virus had spread to such a degree that an entire country has suspended mortgage payments, stopped all non-essential movement, and ceased business. Their medical system is so overwhelmed that they are forced to choose who to save and many people over 65 are not even assessed as the hospitals reserve their resources and space for those who have a higher chance of survival.
Less than a month ago, everything was normal in Italy. Tourists were making wishes at Trevi Fountain, people were enjoying sunny days having coffee with friends on a cafe patio, and businesses were thriving.
As of yesterday, Italy had 12,462 cases of Covid-19 and the death toll leapt from 196 to 827. In a day. Everything has been ordered closed except food stores and pharmacies.
This is how fast things can go.
And Italy is currently on day 25 since the first 3 cases were diagnosed. If it took China at least 50 days of quarantine, then Italy is potentially halfway through the worst of this outbreak.
Countries across Europe are slamming their borders shut in an effort to contain the virus. Whether they’ve acted soon enough remains to be seen. Where is the United States in all this?
The first case of Covid-19 was diagnosed in the United States on January 22nd in Snohomish County, Washington. Incidentally, that was the same day the city of Wuhan went into lockdown.
We have already had some small regional lockdowns and people in quarantine after traveling, but the quarantining of large groups of people has not yet occurred in the US. YET. We are on day 50 since the initial case was diagnosed in the United States. However, the first case of community spread was on February 26, and this may be a more important marker than the first case in a country the size of ours. “Community spread” means the illness was not contracted through traceable means, like a family member with the virus or travel history to places where the illness was running rampant. So if we’re counting from the first day of community spread, the US is on day 15.
If massive lockdowns are occurring on about day 22-23 in other countries, that means we may have 7-8 days before we see major lockdowns and quarantines here. That would put us at March 19th or 20th. We may see some early lockdowns of cities or regions where the virus is rapidly spreading like Seattle and New York City. The lockdowns in other countries expanded in about a week to encompass greater geographic areas and larger numbers of people. This would put us at approximately March 26-27th.
Now keep in mind, this is not engraved in stone. I don’t trust our numbers any more than I trusted China’s because the testing protocols have been nothing short of disastrous. First, faulty tests were sent out to health departments across the country and then the criteria for being tested was so narrow that many cases were likely overlooked. It took one person who caught the virus through community spread 10 days to be tested because she didn’t fit the criteria.
The US might still manage to get a handle on this outbreak and contain it. A successful treatment regimen could be discovered. But if you’re looking for a general idea of when we may see lockdowns and quarantines, this pattern seems to be repeating itself and possibly speeding up.
This chart shows how far behind Italy other countries are in the grand scheme of this outbreak. Based on this chart we are 11.5 days behind Italy, who instituted their country-wide quarantine three days ago. If this chart is correct, we’d be looking at massive quarantines on approximately the 20th as opposed to the more gradual schedule used by China.
How long are quarantines lasting?
If the information coming out of China is accurate, their period of extensive lockdown has lasted 7-8 weeks. Italy is right at the midpoint of that, at 3.5 weeks and the situation appears to be nowhere near under control.
Based on this, I would expect a quarantine or lockdown in the US to last for up to 2-3 months. There are lots of variables, of course, but this would be a good general guide for getting supplies.
I have to stress that whether you are personally concerned about getting the coronavirus or not, a mandatory quarantine will still affect you and you’ll want to be prepared. Otherwise, those folks you made fun of for buying toilet paper will be laughing at you for using the pages of a phonebook to wipe. So what’s going to happen?
It’s impossible to predict exactly how the coronavirus is going to affect the United States. Americans are far more independence-minded that folks in China and much less likely to cooperate with draconian containment measures. At the same time, healthcare here is outrageously expensive for those of us who are uninsured, which up until this point may have caused many people to skip medical treatment or diagnosis, potentially spreading the virus faster.
However, as of today, March 12, a number of universities across the country are shutting down classes until April. Workplaces are taking more thorough sanitation measures. Large gatherings, conferences, and conventions are being canceled. The NBA has canceled the rest of the season, the MLB has canceled spring training, and NCAA tournaments have also been canceled. (source) Last night, President Trump announced the suspension of air traffic from the EU much to the outrage of Europe, and today he said that suspension of domestic travel is also a possibility.
We know there is community spread in New York, Washington state, and now potentially Houston, Texas. Containment efforts thus far have failed.
While we aren’t in lockdown yet, anyone who is paying attention can see that we’re certainly headed in that direction.
There are some things that could change this. If we begin having a lot more positive cases in clusters, it could accelerate the timeline. On the other hand, if the growth in the number of cases slows down, it would show that containment efforts are working and it might never get as far as government-mandated quarantines.
Either way, if you aren’t prepared, I would strongly recommend you put some plans in place. It’s time to make some decisions.
While again, I must stress, we don’t know for sure what will happen, it’s time to make some decisions just in case.
Where do you want to be during a quarantine or lockdown? When will you stop going to work or sending the kids to school? Do you have enough supplies to see you through 7-8 weeks or longer?
You’re the only person who can answer these questions for yourself and your family. But you should probably answer them soon, or the decisions will most likely be made for you.
Yes to an extent but rapid over exertion may be causing rapid hypoxia which leads to the “suddenly dropping dead” syndrome you may heave read about.
Moving and changing positions, forcing one-self to cough and deep breath and resting while sick, that is often the best way to go.
Good sanitation is key. Especially washing hands and avoiding the need to touch your face. If it’s like other viruses, you can reinfect yourself.
Rush is showing the frailties of his own humanity...He has lung cancer and may be afraid this disease will take him out. He may be trying to reassure himself. Pray for Rush,
..... beginning this Monday, would you be prepared?”.......
Yes. Two - three months.
.....”When will America say ENOUGH OF THIS BULL SHIT?”.....
Probably not until it stops spreading.
.....”When will America say ENOUGH OF THIS BULL SHIT?”.....
Probably not until it stops spreading.
.....”The West and East Coast already look pretty hot on J.Hopkins map”.....
That’s where all the tourists go. Take a look at Florida’s Gulf side clusters, that’s where the Seniors Dominate in the state....I think each state has their own areas of vulnerability.
I just can’t answer why Washington State got hit so hard. Practically the entire state is a cluster of positives for the virus.
I’m self locking down for the most part. Planning to spring clean, haul out, and prepare walls for painting. That’s enough to keep me occupied for a couple months or longer.
Have a comfortable second floor deck to enjoy the outdoors as the weather changes. And will be painting Wrought Iron table set.
So I’m good.
I’m self locking down for the most part. Planning to spring clean, haul out, and prepare walls for painting. That’s enough to keep me occupied for a couple months or longer.
Have a comfortable second floor deck to enjoy the outdoors as the weather changes. And will be painting Wrought Iron table set.
So I’m good.
There was an article years ago I read in my pulmonary specialists office where the Israelis did a study on dry heat to treat cold viruses. It shortened the cold by a LOT.
They had people get under a cover with a electric heater and turned it on high. They breathed that heat in and it broke up the congestion faster than any over the counter drug on the market at that time
- -
This works because many chemical reactions run faster at higher temperatures and your body repairing itself or fighting infection is a chemical process. That may be the reason many people spike a fever when infected. The body is attempting to go into overdrive to repair itself.
Surprising isn’t it that this panic was not sounded in 2009 when H7N7 virus killed over 12,00 US citizens.
As more test are done you will see more confirmed cases abut death rate dropping as it already has started to do that’s because it is more mild than reported for most people and so far only serious cases get counted for the most part. There will be more deaths, it might even surpass the 12,461 deaths in US in 2009 from H7N9 aka swine flu.
But the fatality rate for COVID 19 is nowhere near as high as some alarmist make it out to be. That is why no one, repeat ZERO under the age of 10 has died anywhere in the world.
The country that has done the most testing that can be relied upon is S Korea , they have tested well over 250,000 and have 7,869 cases and 66 deaths for a fatality rate of .008 or less than 1%. That is more than the flu but nothing like what some are reporting here and in the news.
As a matter of fact if you add up the top 15 countries with reported cases excluding China, Italy and Iran ) you get over 20,446 cases and 247 deaths for a fatality rate of .012-about 1%. It’s probably lower and more in line with S Korea as many cases are even more mild.
” If you do what Japan is doing, which is all it can. You end up with a population that can’t inoculate itself. So, while its slope is low, it will keep going until it reaches a similar percent of the population. Germany and Italy will get a large percentage very fast. And while that may overwhelm the health system, it will also inoculate the population. Japan is saving the health system, not the population. There will be some beneficial affects of the Japanese way. Obviously the slower the rate of cases, means you will likely have the ventilators to treat more truly sick people. But it also means the economic price will be catastrophic. Japan will need to clamp down longer than Germany will. So, Japan’s economy will be stopped longer, causing a larger economic depression.”
Could you elaborate further on the situation in Japan ? I live there . Not sure I fully get the gist of what you are saying .
Maybe some of those people who made it out of China before we shut down travel, had mild or no symptoms and spread it around unknowingly.
There was community spread before they even knew there was a case, is what it looks like.
Seattle is one of the quarantine camps, but I don’t recall anyone being taken there.
WA state probably has the clusters for the same reason as Italy — a bad combination of enhanced Asian travel and business contacts, and a social climate that is very active.
People might speculate it has something to do with the Canadian border but on our side of that border (I’m in BC) the perception is more in the other direction, like close the border to keep it under control here.
It would be easy to blur distinctions between large local ethnic populations and business travel, I think the latter is the more dangerous of the two situations. Just because local residents are of Chinese origin does not make them that much more likely to contract the virus if they don’t travel to China (and most have no desire to go back).
Thinking it might be a while before this dies out, give it to early or mid May perhaps.
I've been trying to state something like this but you did it very succinctly. It bears repeating so forgive for me recopying your post.
What we should be doing is:
Will a few more people die? Maybe. But people die in a whole lot of unexpected ways. You may die from the virus in a lock down anyway save for the few months you were holed up in your house.
If we don't keep a majority of people working, people will start losing their jobs and it will take 10 years to recover. Not to mention the wrecked marriages and foreclosed homes because of money problems.
The government can't protect you from this. There is no treatment, no vaccine. Take reasonable precautions but hide in your house with your toilet paper? No thank you.
You get arrested and 5 yr. prison sentence in Russia if you fail to self-isolate after being tested or have the virus.
Stop your reckless ranting .
You are no expert in public health or even in the medical field .
Thanks for posting; let us know how it goes where you are.
Excellent article—they are going to do it anyway.
That is why sooner is better.
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