” If you do what Japan is doing, which is all it can. You end up with a population that can’t inoculate itself. So, while its slope is low, it will keep going until it reaches a similar percent of the population. Germany and Italy will get a large percentage very fast. And while that may overwhelm the health system, it will also inoculate the population. Japan is saving the health system, not the population. There will be some beneficial affects of the Japanese way. Obviously the slower the rate of cases, means you will likely have the ventilators to treat more truly sick people. But it also means the economic price will be catastrophic. Japan will need to clamp down longer than Germany will. So, Japan’s economy will be stopped longer, causing a larger economic depression.”
Could you elaborate further on the situation in Japan ? I live there . Not sure I fully get the gist of what you are saying .
Thanks for posting; let us know how it goes where you are.
Ok, I had a trip to Japan that I just canceled. The hotels in Tokyo and Kyoto were trying to do whatever they could to get us to come. The restaurants have food they can’t sell. Not the little local restaurants but the bigger ones with more food. They gave us free breakfast. In Kyoto they were offering free dinners. Now the rooms they were selling me, are empty even at half price. I had 6 people. Shinjuku looks like a ghost town. A few people strolling around. Schools, museums, tourist sites all closed. Japan is doing a great job. They are rule following clean people. And this may work. But what happens when the tourists come back. What happens when the foreign students come back. Japan will have a population that is not immune. They will get the virus then. It will just come in the second wave. People act as though this thing only has one wave. Their will be echos. And if you do better in the first wave, the echo will be worse.
Economically Japan will have paid a higher price. They will have killed many businesses. Germany will make a half hearted try at it. And after the first devastation, they will be back in business. You can’t hide from this virus as a country. Maybe an individual can do it. But a country will get it. Just look at The Faroe Islands, The Maldives, Iceland, Tasmania. The list goes on.