Posted on 03/12/2020 10:29:28 PM PDT by amorphous
Yesterday the World Health Organization officially declared Covid-19 a pandemic (like we didn’t already know this.) As well, President Trump addressed the nation, closing American borders to all flights from Europe and announcing some ways he intends to help the people of the United States financially.
In unofficial terms, this is sh#t getting real.
Things are going to get worse – possibly much worse – before they get better. Illness completely aside, this will cause financial problems that many folks will feel for years after the pandemic is over.
The biggest question people are asking now is, “When?”
When will the US begin to see measures being taken to lockdown areas or put people into quarantine? What would that lockdown look like? How long will quarantines last?
We can look at how this has gone in other countries to get a general idea of the pattern. Of course, we’re Americans and we do things differently. Our geography is quite different as is our population density. So this isn’t an exact science. We’re looking at patterns to predict (not in a crystal ball kind of way but an analysis kind of way) what could happen here. Here’s how things have gone in Italy and China.
We can still learn a lot from observing the patterns of the breakdowns there.
The United States is probably closer culturally to Italy and other European countries than we are to China. For example, Italy is far more concerned about human rights than China. However, geographically, we’re a lot more similar to China than we are to Italy. China has 9.3 million square kilometers and the United States has 9.1 million square kilometers. Meanwhile, Italy is 301,340 square kilometers.
Both of these things play a role in the spread of the virus and containment efforts.
What about China? Well, I don’t trust the numbers and information coming out of China to include them in this model by very much, but note that the situation of which we’re aware has been going on for about 8 weeks. The first cases of a mystery illness were heard of when Dr. Li Wenliang, who later died of the coronavirus, blew the whistle on China on December 30, 2019.
To our knowledge, the quarantines began in Wuhan on January 22. So from the first patients to the initial lockdowns was 23 days. From the date the first noted illness became public to now has been 73 days. From the date of the first quarantines in Wuhan until now has been 51 days. Although the quarantine has been loosened, there are still serious restrictions on movement in China. The country may or may not be getting back to normal, depending on who you believe. If they are not getting back to normal, then this 7-week window is inaccurate.
Back to Europe. Italy, specifically.
On about the 20th of February, three cases of Covid-19 were confirmed in Northern Italy. Officials acted quickly to lock the area down but unfortunately, their quick actions weren’t enough. What began as a lockdown of a few villages in the Lombardy region in northern Italy on the 21st spread to a nationwide lockdown on March 9th.
From the first patients to local lockdowns was one day. From the first patients to the entire country being quarantined was 22 days. In just 22 days, the virus had spread to such a degree that an entire country has suspended mortgage payments, stopped all non-essential movement, and ceased business. Their medical system is so overwhelmed that they are forced to choose who to save and many people over 65 are not even assessed as the hospitals reserve their resources and space for those who have a higher chance of survival.
Less than a month ago, everything was normal in Italy. Tourists were making wishes at Trevi Fountain, people were enjoying sunny days having coffee with friends on a cafe patio, and businesses were thriving.
As of yesterday, Italy had 12,462 cases of Covid-19 and the death toll leapt from 196 to 827. In a day. Everything has been ordered closed except food stores and pharmacies.
This is how fast things can go.
And Italy is currently on day 25 since the first 3 cases were diagnosed. If it took China at least 50 days of quarantine, then Italy is potentially halfway through the worst of this outbreak.
Countries across Europe are slamming their borders shut in an effort to contain the virus. Whether they’ve acted soon enough remains to be seen. Where is the United States in all this?
The first case of Covid-19 was diagnosed in the United States on January 22nd in Snohomish County, Washington. Incidentally, that was the same day the city of Wuhan went into lockdown.
We have already had some small regional lockdowns and people in quarantine after traveling, but the quarantining of large groups of people has not yet occurred in the US. YET. We are on day 50 since the initial case was diagnosed in the United States. However, the first case of community spread was on February 26, and this may be a more important marker than the first case in a country the size of ours. “Community spread” means the illness was not contracted through traceable means, like a family member with the virus or travel history to places where the illness was running rampant. So if we’re counting from the first day of community spread, the US is on day 15.
If massive lockdowns are occurring on about day 22-23 in other countries, that means we may have 7-8 days before we see major lockdowns and quarantines here. That would put us at March 19th or 20th. We may see some early lockdowns of cities or regions where the virus is rapidly spreading like Seattle and New York City. The lockdowns in other countries expanded in about a week to encompass greater geographic areas and larger numbers of people. This would put us at approximately March 26-27th.
Now keep in mind, this is not engraved in stone. I don’t trust our numbers any more than I trusted China’s because the testing protocols have been nothing short of disastrous. First, faulty tests were sent out to health departments across the country and then the criteria for being tested was so narrow that many cases were likely overlooked. It took one person who caught the virus through community spread 10 days to be tested because she didn’t fit the criteria.
The US might still manage to get a handle on this outbreak and contain it. A successful treatment regimen could be discovered. But if you’re looking for a general idea of when we may see lockdowns and quarantines, this pattern seems to be repeating itself and possibly speeding up.
This chart shows how far behind Italy other countries are in the grand scheme of this outbreak. Based on this chart we are 11.5 days behind Italy, who instituted their country-wide quarantine three days ago. If this chart is correct, we’d be looking at massive quarantines on approximately the 20th as opposed to the more gradual schedule used by China.
How long are quarantines lasting?
If the information coming out of China is accurate, their period of extensive lockdown has lasted 7-8 weeks. Italy is right at the midpoint of that, at 3.5 weeks and the situation appears to be nowhere near under control.
Based on this, I would expect a quarantine or lockdown in the US to last for up to 2-3 months. There are lots of variables, of course, but this would be a good general guide for getting supplies.
I have to stress that whether you are personally concerned about getting the coronavirus or not, a mandatory quarantine will still affect you and you’ll want to be prepared. Otherwise, those folks you made fun of for buying toilet paper will be laughing at you for using the pages of a phonebook to wipe. So what’s going to happen?
It’s impossible to predict exactly how the coronavirus is going to affect the United States. Americans are far more independence-minded that folks in China and much less likely to cooperate with draconian containment measures. At the same time, healthcare here is outrageously expensive for those of us who are uninsured, which up until this point may have caused many people to skip medical treatment or diagnosis, potentially spreading the virus faster.
However, as of today, March 12, a number of universities across the country are shutting down classes until April. Workplaces are taking more thorough sanitation measures. Large gatherings, conferences, and conventions are being canceled. The NBA has canceled the rest of the season, the MLB has canceled spring training, and NCAA tournaments have also been canceled. (source) Last night, President Trump announced the suspension of air traffic from the EU much to the outrage of Europe, and today he said that suspension of domestic travel is also a possibility.
We know there is community spread in New York, Washington state, and now potentially Houston, Texas. Containment efforts thus far have failed.
While we aren’t in lockdown yet, anyone who is paying attention can see that we’re certainly headed in that direction.
There are some things that could change this. If we begin having a lot more positive cases in clusters, it could accelerate the timeline. On the other hand, if the growth in the number of cases slows down, it would show that containment efforts are working and it might never get as far as government-mandated quarantines.
Either way, if you aren’t prepared, I would strongly recommend you put some plans in place. It’s time to make some decisions.
While again, I must stress, we don’t know for sure what will happen, it’s time to make some decisions just in case.
Where do you want to be during a quarantine or lockdown? When will you stop going to work or sending the kids to school? Do you have enough supplies to see you through 7-8 weeks or longer?
You’re the only person who can answer these questions for yourself and your family. But you should probably answer them soon, or the decisions will most likely be made for you.
Which leads me to believe that some of what the author describes above could be imminent. This isn't fear mongering - it's a logical conclusion.
If a lockdown of the entire country for a month (WAG), was announced tomorrow, beginning this Monday, would you be prepared?
He can do that you know.
This has gone way beyond the realm of reality.
Ah, he’s probably in his combat outfit with paint under his eyes and his gun pointing straight ahead waiting for zombies to come and take his canned beans.
Don’t ruin it for him :)
In unofficial terms, this is sh#t getting real.
Things are going to get worse – possibly much worse –
—
Yes.
There will definitely be more than 40 people die.
And perhaps the vast majority won’t be ancient invalids in the same nursing home community.
Lol, thanks! I needed a good laugh to keep me from falling asleep while I’m on guard duty!! ;)
When did politics remain within the realm of reality?! :)
When will America say ENOUGH OF THIS BULL SHIT?
Jesus man! I mean WTF?
They’ll all be in line, fighting over asswhipe before to long.
Being told to stay at home and then running down to the Walmart and grabbing all the asswhipe they can get?
They pulled the tread I put up about the Sauna. Yet they use thermal treatment for cancer AND some viruses.
Its got that crazy that they cant take a slightly humorous thread about something.
I have yet to have anyone tell me if there is anything better than old home remedies after a person gets sick.
BTW, I am thinking I had this. I flew Jan 4th and returned back the 8th-from Mesa AZ to Appleton WI. I had the exact same symptoms they describe. Headaches, joints, fever, dry cough, and the whole thing. There were a few on that plane that were hacking and all that...especially the lady next to me.
Yet here I am. How would I know if I had it? The GD tests are faulty. Yet I had a yearly blood test yesterday and its normal. White cell count and the whole deal.
I really believe this is a purely political ploy to damage Trump. You’ll note that the opposition is really trying to make points on this.
The plan is to extend the time frame over which people are getting infected — in order to avoid overwhelming the ERs and ICUs.
That doesn’t require tanking the entire economy — which what you are proposing would accomplish.
Excellent article.
Read your thread. I completely agree a sauna, or a long hot shower - my preference - helps to get over a cold or flu.
I’m not sure I like this. It is using whole numbers of people and not percent of the population. You need the percentage to understand how far the virus has to go. It will reach a certain percent before it tails off.
If you do what Japan is doing, which is all it can. You end up with a population that can’t inoculate itself. So, while its slope is low, it will keep going until it reaches a similar percent of the population. Germany and Italy will get a large percentage very fast. And while that may overwhelm the health system, it will also inoculate the population. Japan is saving the health system, not the population. There will be some beneficial affects of the Japanese way. Obviously the slower the rate of cases, means you will likely have the ventilators to treat more truly sick people. But it also means the economic price will be catastrophic. Japan will need to clamp down longer than Germany will. So, Japan’s economy will be stopped longer, causing a larger economic depression.
I didn't say that.
I said, "...leads me to believe that some of what the author describes above could be imminent."
And
"If a lockdown of the entire country for a month (WAG), was announced tomorrow, beginning this Monday, would you be prepared? "
There was an article years ago I read in my pulmonary specialists office where the Israelis did a study on dry heat to treat cold viruses. It shortened the cold by a LOT.
They had people get under a cover with a electric heater and turned it on high. They breathed that heat in and it broke up the congestion faster than any over the counter drug on the market at that time.
That was WAY back in the early 80s I read that and never forgot it.
I am already tired of this BS
When they got anarchy and its out of control.
Then we will get the civil war? I dunno. But this son of a bi%^ery has to stop.
Like I said. They’ll be down at the local Walmart fist fighting over TP pretty soon.
Just dam!
I read just today to drink warm liquids, not cold beverages or eat ice, or ice cream while you have the flu.
Yup! Moms old home remedies.
The LAST thing anyone should be allowed to do is if they start to get pneumonia is to lay still. That is the surest way to die. And that is how people are passing on with this.
I've prepared for it, but I’m not sure I'm going to like either. But we may not have a say in the matter. I know if happens, we haven't seen anything that would compare to the panic buying which would result.
Indeed. When will I stop hearing about it. When will I stop witnessing the hysteria.
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