[poinq]

I’m not sure I like this. It is using whole numbers of people and not percent of the population. You need the percentage to understand how far the virus has to go. It will reach a certain percent before it tails off.

If you do what Japan is doing, which is all it can. You end up with a population that can’t inoculate itself. So, while its slope is low, it will keep going until it reaches a similar percent of the population. Germany and Italy will get a large percentage very fast. And while that may overwhelm the health system, it will also inoculate the population. Japan is saving the health system, not the population. There will be some beneficial affects of the Japanese way. Obviously the slower the rate of cases, means you will likely have the ventilators to treat more truly sick people. But it also means the economic price will be catastrophic. Japan will need to clamp down longer than Germany will. So, Japan’s economy will be stopped longer, causing a larger economic depression.

[amorphous]

I’m not sure I like this.

I've prepared for it, but I’m not sure I'm going to like either. But we may not have a say in the matter. I know if happens, we haven't seen anything that would compare to the panic buying which would result.

[sushiman]

” If you do what Japan is doing, which is all it can. You end up with a population that can’t inoculate itself. So, while its slope is low, it will keep going until it reaches a similar percent of the population. Germany and Italy will get a large percentage very fast. And while that may overwhelm the health system, it will also inoculate the population. Japan is saving the health system, not the population. There will be some beneficial affects of the Japanese way. Obviously the slower the rate of cases, means you will likely have the ventilators to treat more truly sick people. But it also means the economic price will be catastrophic. Japan will need to clamp down longer than Germany will. So, Japan’s economy will be stopped longer, causing a larger economic depression.”

Could you elaborate further on the situation in Japan ? I live there . Not sure I fully get the gist of what you are saying .

[stig]

If you do what Japan is doing, which is all it can. You end up with a population that can’t inoculate itself. So, while its slope is low, it will keep going until it reaches a similar percent of the population. Germany and Italy will get a large percentage very fast. And while that may overwhelm the health system, it will also inoculate the population. Japan is saving the health system, not the population. There will be some beneficial affects of the Japanese way. Obviously the slower the rate of cases, means you will likely have the ventilators to treat more truly sick people. But it also means the economic price will be catastrophic. Japan will need to clamp down longer than Germany will. So, Japan’s economy will be stopped longer, causing a larger economic depression.

I've been trying to state something like this but you did it very succinctly. It bears repeating so forgive for me recopying your post.

What we should be doing is:

• Letting younger people do as they please. Go to work, pay your gym membership, take out food from your local eatery. If you have older parents call them on the phone and stay away from them physically.
• Young kids go to school. If you are immune suppressed workout virtual school with your principal. If you are an International student with recent travel stay home and virtual school.
• Older people who have comorbidities take family leave or vacation time and stay home.
• Work from home if your job tasks allow.
• If you get sick stay home. wait until the symptoms are gone for 2 days, then go back to work.
• if symptoms don't improve go to the hospital to make sure you don't have something that's treatable like pneumonia.
• on a national scale control the borders, stop international travel for a while, accelerate moving the supply chain back within US national borders.

Will a few more people die? Maybe. But people die in a whole lot of unexpected ways. You may die from the virus in a lock down anyway save for the few months you were holed up in your house.

If we don't keep a majority of people working, people will start losing their jobs and it will take 10 years to recover. Not to mention the wrecked marriages and foreclosed homes because of money problems.

The government can't protect you from this. There is no treatment, no vaccine. Take reasonable precautions but hide in your house with your toilet paper? No thank you.