Posted on 08/15/2018 4:29:38 AM PDT by jmaroneps37
I stand by my prediction of Republicans picking up 11 seats in the Senate.
The most recent generic survey results should make Democrats queasy. The path of generic number charts are eerily like they were in 2010 and 2014 which is very bad news for the Democrats.
The current average of the four newest generic surveys shows a sharp drop in the Democrats’ lead. While the Democrats’ led by 6 points two weeks ago, it has dropped to just 2.25% now.
This basically means Democrats are losing since they have to have a lead of more than 6 points in order to make sufficient gains to retake the House.
To put this in perspective, a Brennan Center for Justice report, written last spring when Democrats led by double digits, said Democrats would have to out vote Republicans nationally by 11 points to regain the House.
Their reasoning was that Republican wins at the state level in 2010 gave the GOP control of redistricting which stacked the deck against Democrats.
To underscore this point, in 2016 the Democrats went into Election Day with a 6- point generic lead and won just Republican 12 seats.
The latest Rasmussen poll has more bad news for Democrats.
Besides showing Donald Trump at 50% overall approval, it shows his approval among African Americans has hit an amazing 31%.
This is a clear indication that the #walkaway movement is eroding the Democrats base.
Making things still more difficult for Democrats is the fact that there are at least seven House seats now held by Democrats that even the New York Times admits may flip.
The Times says, two of these seats are in Minnesota, one in Pennsylvania two in Nevada, one in New Hampshire and one is in Arizona.
Research shows that during the summer of 2010 the generic surveys showed both parties about even.
But, by Election Day the energy was with Republicans and the Democrats suffered large losses from Senate and House seats all the way down to local town officials.
In 2010 House Democrats lost 63 seats and Senate Democrats lost 6 seats.
For most of 2014 Democrats led by the 8 points they needed to take back some or all of the seats they lost two years earlier; but that lead vanished in the summer and never came back.
In 2014 House Democrats lost 13 more seats and Senate Democrats lost 9 seats.
In 2014 the economy was in sad shape, unemployment was at a depressing level, President Barack Obama was telling us to get used to no better than 2% GDPs and probably lower.
There was no record-breaking optimism and certainly no 4.1 GDP.
In 2014 the Democrats were not yet as clearly on the side of illegal aliens and had not yet been taken over by a cult of America haters that 56% of voters saw as out of step with them as is the case today.
Even though African Americans were still firmly in the pocket of the Democrats, Barack Obama had zero coat tails and his endorsement was as kiss of death.
Will the Democrats get back a generic survey lead? Yes, they will but the chances are it will be fake.
A few weeks ago, Quinnipiac reported finding a 12-point generic lead.
It was built on a 20 point over sample of Democrats.
Expect the kind of phony polls we saw in 2016 because it’s all they have left.
If it makes you feel good, believe them and be scared; but remember “Hillary Clinton is up by 12 points and has a 95% chance of winning.”
Repubs will pick up seats in the House stunning the so called experts once again.
The democrats were kept in office for a long time by Rinos who promised to do the right thing but fell in line with the left once elected. Trump is forcing the Rinos to keep his promises, assuming that continues the Rat party is in real trouble for a long time.
This is the kind of analysis we did in 2016 and used to correctly predict the Trump victory.
Thumbs up—good data.
Black people (men _and_ women) love alpha men. That can erode their habit of voting Democrat.
You don’t get more alpha than Trump.
Meanwhile I'd like to see numbers on how much support, if any, we've lost among suburban women.
Good morning! I seed you have peeked out from under the covers and decided what you will be afraid of is that Trump won’t be able to use a quadrupling of his Black support. You cover peekers are a resilient and imaginative bunch. As I said be afraid if it makes you feel good.
So, the average is 15 seat gain. Consider this the over/under. If the wave does not come, then its a victory.
For October, 2016, the Dems led in every single poll by between 1 and as much as 10 points. It wasn’t till November that two polls had the Republicans leading at all, and the average still had the Dems ahead by 0.6% on election day. When the elections were finally held, the Republicans comfortably held the House. 
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2016_generic_congressional_vote-5279.html
If those Blacks just stay home during the midterms it will mean quite a bit.
If we keep the House and gain seats in the Senate, it is a win.
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