Posted on 07/13/2018 7:05:26 AM PDT by jmaroneps37
A recent Survey Monkey poll (exposed by Wiki leaks as a Democrat collaborator willing to create fake poll results) showed bad news for a few Democrat Senators who will be running for re-election in states won by Donald Trump in 2016. This “survey” is a pile of crap that makes no sense.
The popular interpretation of the results of the recently released Survey Monkey (SM) polls are wrong. They surveyed the re-election chances of Democrat Senators in states that were won by Donald Trump in 2016. SM found four of these vulnerable Democrats were already behind; and given the political realities of their states, they are headed for defeat.
They are Phil Bredesen of Tennessee, Bill Nelson of Florida, Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota and Joe Donnelly of Indiana.
There is no argument that these four will lose.
Nevertheless, saying that this list from SM is dampening the spirits of the Democrat rank and file is 180 degrees wrong.
Included in this list are a number of other Democrats who will also lose; but thanks to SM they are being portrayed as leading and in control.
They too will lose because they are no different from the Democrats SM identifies as in danger. They are all “just another Democrat.”
SM saying Claire McCaskill is leading (by 2 points) in Missouri which is ridiculous. A new Remington poll shows her down 2 points and moving in the wrong direction.
Remington polled “1034 voters” without providing a breakdown of their party affiliation; but an indicator of who might have been surveyed can be found in a companion question.
In Missouri, a state Trump won by 19 points, the idea of making Missouri a Right To Work State was disapproved 56/38. Did Remington over sample Democrats and still fail to get McCaskill a lead?
When McCaskill is juxtaposed with any of those already down and on their way out no substantive differences can be found. They all share the central characteristic of being “just another Democrat.” Being “just another Democrat” this year won’t get them re-elected and it won’t get McCaskill re-elected either.
That covers five of the twelve races SM reported on. I suspect the purpose of SM’s report was not at all to depress the Democrat rank and file but to try to lift their morale.
They can read. In their hearts most of them know they never had a chance to win control of the Senate; but SM’s report shows them some reason to believe they will not get completely wiped out and lose eleven seats.
Two of the most ridiculous of SM’s remaining “surveys,” are from Montana and West Virginia.
The Montana result of SM’s "poll" says Jon Tester has a 12-point lead! REALLY? That is amazing because in 2012 Tester won by 3.7% and Barack Obama won Montana by 13.5%! Now that Tester has identified himself as an obstacle to Trump's policies by voting against Trump’s Tax cuts, in a state Trump won by 21 points, SM says Tester will do THREE TIMES better than his margin in 2012? Trump won Montana by 21 points which was more than 7 points better than what Mitt Romney got in 2012. THIS adds up to a comfortable a 12 point lead for Tester? REALLY? I don’t think so.
On to the two seats SM thinks Republicans will lose; Nevada and Arizona.
In Nevada Dean Heller is reported to be down by 3 points to Congresswoman Jackie Rosen who is an exception to the “just another Democrat” label.
Besides the fact that there has been at least one poll showing Heller ahead (by 1 point) Rosen is not “just another Democrat.” She is worse.
Rosen has been caught and publicly exposed as a major liar. She claimed she ran a small business, but public records prove that is a lie and the “business” never existed.
Heller is running a devastating TV spot on this issue that will likely get him traction. Trump has not yet started fighting for Heller;but he will. That will boost Heller and get him over the top.
In Arizona at this point, there is NO Republican candidate for the open seat created by Jeff Flake’s departure. Those who are answering survey questions in Arizona are reacting to name recognition or are Republicans splitting between the two main Republican candidates. When a Republican candidate is selected this will change.
A state with the history Arizona has on border issues will not elect “just another Democrat” because part of being “just another Democrat,” will mean being “just another open border Democrat.” That won’t happen.
The next installment will cover why demographics in the states Democrats are clearly going to lose are so deadly (for Democrats) similar to those SM says Democrats are winning.
When the polls closed during the 2017 election you could easily watch the shifting numbers and tell what was happening. As all the reliable smaller rural conservative counties reported early the heavy liberal counties in the urban areas held back results till they knew the magic number to win.
If you remember the 2016 election, Florida was waffling back and forth. The panhandle is in the central time zone and Broward county in the eastern time zone was sitting on the votes waiting till the panhandle reported. Panhandle drug foot till Broward had to report and they unleashed the votes and swung the state back in our favor. This is a typical liberal tactic. The Trumpster knew this and did the same in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
Bottom line is that is how Missouri was awarded with Old Fat A$$ Clairebabe. The DemocRATS held the polls open in STL and KC while bussing in voters and cutting the line ahead of the ones already waiting. This tactic was used to blur the lines as they could push votes through as fast as they could till a judge actually shut down the charade.
So yes DemocRATS can and will win in red states with a little voter fraud and deception.
However, it will have no impact on Heitkamps's loss.
Sorry to say but Jackass Joe Donnelly will probably be re-elected in a close vote.
The Indiana Republicans shoot themselves in the foot every six years with nut ball candidates - think Richard Mourdock. Mike Braun will screw this up before November.
Each FReeper needs to bring at least 5 Republican voters to the polls in November.
I have conservative friends who often are too busy to vote or forget. They’re simply not political animals like us here.
I told many of them I’ll be at their house or office on Election Day 2018 to give them a lift to their polling place. I’m not taking no for an answer!
I’ll have all day, and plenty of gas.
If each one of us here did that? Especially in key House races? It would turn the tide.
Turnout = EVERYTHING.
I wonder how many Californians have moved to other Western states like Montana or Arizona and are even now turning the Red to Purple.
Again, get out and vote!
Turnout = EVERYTHING.
Where Missouri is concerned, the Primary is August 7. Also, the vote on making Missouri a Right to Work State. If it fails, then we may lose to Mother McCaskill again come November. Republicans need to wake up and get off their collective asses! Democrats feed off union workers like flies on honey. We have a chance to stop this activity in Missouri. VOTE YES on PROP A on August 7!
12 seats would be huge, enough for a filibuster-proof majority, and almost enough to override vetos even (probably better that the RINOs in the Senate don’t have that though). I’d like to believe it could happen, but I think swing that big in the Senate is too much to hope for.
I see an awful lot of good news for the Senate, but can anybody confirm that the House is safe? Or, will we lose the house this November?
People say they monkey around.
Barack Obama never won Montana. Not in 2012. Not in 2008.
Typo Of course It should have been Obama LOST Montana by 13.5%. OKAY?
I am encouraged by the relatively small number of supposed Trump supporters who wake up each morning looking for proof it isn’t real and the Democrats will somehow overthrow Trump. They search the web looking for a reason to be frightened to death that will make them hide under their beds.
Trump’s not going anywhere until January 20 2025 and, however undeserving they are, the Republicans will win 11 Democrat seats in the senate, Prove I’m wrong. Tell me why Tammy Baldwin in Wisconsin is just blowing smoke when she says she could lose. Tell me what the difference is between her and the dead ducks? Where is your data?
So Tester out-performed the Democrat presidential candidate by 16 points? Good to know.
Entirely possible.
...and, however undeserving they are, the Republicans will win 11 Democrat seats in the senate, Prove I’m wrong.
I think November 6th will prove that.
In West Virginia MS’s “poll” says Joe Manchin is up 13 points against a popular Republican in a state Trump won by 41.7 points.
In West Virginia Republicans could pull a name from a hat and beat Manchin. In his own Democrat primary Manchin couldn’t reach 70%. In 2012 Romney won West Virginia by 26.8%. In 2016 Trump won West Virginia by 41.7%. THIS adds up to Manchin being re-elected after also voting against Trump’s Tax Cuts? REALLY? This is a joke.
Final note: Even if all these endangered Democrats flop all over themselves to support Judge Bret Kavanaugh and vote for his confirmation it won’t make a damned bit of difference. They won’t be able to break away from the “just another Democrat” label.
The next installment will cover why demographics in the states Democrats are clearly going to lose are so deadly (for Democrats) similar to those SM says Democrats are winning.
You're screaming at the choir.
You'd be hard pressed to find any Freeper who ever misses an election - especially federal elections.
Alabama was a perfect storm, that Democrat won’t survive the 2020 election.
That is the number I am thinking of as well, which would be great!
Agreed!
Considering the party of the president generally loses 4+/- in the first midterm that’s amazing. Of course part of it is the numbers, the GOP just doesn’t have any seats to lose in this Senate class. Part is also the Dems just aren’t playing their hand well at all. You’re supposed to run your midterm on presidential short comings, not raw hate. The American people really aren’t into hate voting.
I would not be surprised if that happened in the House, but I think we will pick up seats in the Senate.
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