More than 400 Million Private Firearms in the United States

Gun Watch ^ | 3 September, 2017 | Dean Weingarten

[marktwain]

The number of private firearms in the United States continues to soar. According to the Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives, (ATF) numbers released in September, 2017, the number of firearms added to the private stock in 2015 was 12,945,416. That number lags a bit more than a year behind because the ATF is legislatively bound to hold the numbers for at least a year before releasing them. This protects the various companies proprietary rights and possible competitive advantages that come with the numbers.

The 2015 numbers bring the total private firearms in the United States to 388.5 million, rounded to 389 million.  A year ago, I predicted that the number for  the end of 2015 would be 388+ million firearms. From Gun Watch, 1 September, 2015:

At the end of 2015, the stock should be at 388+ million firearms.  Given the current trend, another 12 million or more firearms will be added in 2016, bringing the total stock to 400 million+ firearms by the end of the Obama presidency.
At the end of 2008 and the beginning of the Obama presidency, there were about 308 million private firearms in the United States.   After eight years of President Obama in the highest executive position, I predict that there will be over 400 million.

In 2016, there were 27,538,673 NICS checks. That conservatively translates into another 15.6 million firearms added to the private stock in the United States.

 

The trend in National Instant Check System (NICS) is for more checks to be done for things other than firearms. The average number of private firearms added to the United States stock is about .6 firearms per NICS check.

NICS performs a check when people buy firearms from federally licensed dealers in the United States.  It is also used to perform background checks on people applying for firearm carry permits in those states where such permits are required or offered by law.  There are now over 16 million carry permits in the United States. Firearm sales numbers are in the 10 to 20 million range per year. The number of NICS checks is not a perfect fit for the number of firearms sold. Tennessee runs a NICS check on every carry permit holder in the state every year. That kind of usage helps to explain the ratio of NICS to private firearms increases.

One check can be used to purchase multiple firearms, and most people with carry permits are not required to have an instant check performed when they purchase a firearm.  They had it done when they obtained their permit.

2013 was an anomalous year, likely because of the strong push for restrictive gun legislation by the Obama administration. In 2013, there were .76 firearms added for each NICS check. The trend went back to "normal" in 2014, with .58 firearms added per NICS check, and dropped a little in 2015, with .55 firearms added per NICS Check.

I estimated 2016 using .566 firearms added for each NICS check.  That figure gives us 15.6 million firearms added in 2016, for a total of over 404 million firearms in the U.S. private stock at the end of the Obama presidency.

©2017 by Dean Weingarten: Permission to share is granted when this notice and link are included.

Gun Watch

[TigersEye]

Yes, that is another source of unrecorded guns entering into civilian possession. There are also a fair number of working firearms pre-1899 that the article didn’t address.

[dsc]

Ah. I thought the subject was the recent increase.

[Diana in Wisconsin]

We’re doing our part at our house.

Beau is, ‘Up Nort’ guiding for other Bear Hunters; Bear Season opened today. He got a MONSTER bear last year; no tag this season. (Thank Goodness!)

Anyhow, he was looking for ammo for the, ‘hand cannon’ he hunts bear with and could only find seven rounds. (It takes about 5 rounds to bring down a really big bear.) But then, he looked a little harder and found 40 more rounds.

You can see why this guy is on my, ‘Zombie Fighter Team.’ ;)

P.S. An Armed Society is a Polite Society. :)

[NFHale]

400 million they KNOW of...

Chuckle...

[bgill]

How many more are at the bottom of the lake?

[TADSLOS]

...and those are just the ones above water.

[editor-surveyor]

.
This is just the logged firearms.

There are probably another 200 million unlogged weapons out there (or more).

[usconservative]

There was another post on here the other day stating more than 700,000,000 privately owned firearms which is way more than the police and military combined.

These estimates are all over the place and even with 700,000,000 in private hands that still isn't enough when the revolution starts. Just sayin' (see tagline, I've had it for over 10 years now.)

[ZULU]

That is a good start!!!

[editor-surveyor]

.
Get with it ya slackard! :o)
.

[SuperLuminal]

...404 million..."

Guess we are still safe from a Jap invasion...

Now, if we could just be safe from the Mexican & moslem invasion...Where is Isoroko Yamamoto and his wisdom when we need it?

[tjd1454]

Fellow Wisconsinite here, born and raised, though now transplanted to Virginia. I am so proud that my home state turned red!

[Diana in Wisconsin]

You should be! It’s not been easy - but we’re doin’ it! ;)

Go, Pack! GO! :)

[Big Red Badger]

That’s Correct!
Go shoot .50 caliber Hawkins..
Over 150 yr.old technology.
As Accurate and Deadly as advertised.
KaPow!

[Big Red Badger]

Black Powder has Not even been Discussed!

[TexasRepublic]

I’m sorry, but in Texas your father-in-law doesn’t have a remarkably big collection until it hits the century mark. :-). I’m just saying....

[editor-surveyor]

.
And Black powder is huge. (although primitive)

[School of Rational Thought]

Buy Smith and Wesson firearms. Buy American Brands stock.