More than 400 Million Private Firearms in the United States

Gun Watch ^ | 3 September, 2017 | Dean Weingarten

[marktwain]

The number of private firearms in the United States continues to soar. According to the Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives, (ATF) numbers released in September, 2017, the number of firearms added to the private stock in 2015 was 12,945,416. That number lags a bit more than a year behind because the ATF is legislatively bound to hold the numbers for at least a year before releasing them. This protects the various companies proprietary rights and possible competitive advantages that come with the numbers.

The 2015 numbers bring the total private firearms in the United States to 388.5 million, rounded to 389 million.  A year ago, I predicted that the number for  the end of 2015 would be 388+ million firearms. From Gun Watch, 1 September, 2015:

At the end of 2015, the stock should be at 388+ million firearms.  Given the current trend, another 12 million or more firearms will be added in 2016, bringing the total stock to 400 million+ firearms by the end of the Obama presidency.
At the end of 2008 and the beginning of the Obama presidency, there were about 308 million private firearms in the United States.   After eight years of President Obama in the highest executive position, I predict that there will be over 400 million.

In 2016, there were 27,538,673 NICS checks. That conservatively translates into another 15.6 million firearms added to the private stock in the United States.

 

The trend in National Instant Check System (NICS) is for more checks to be done for things other than firearms. The average number of private firearms added to the United States stock is about .6 firearms per NICS check.

NICS performs a check when people buy firearms from federally licensed dealers in the United States.  It is also used to perform background checks on people applying for firearm carry permits in those states where such permits are required or offered by law.  There are now over 16 million carry permits in the United States. Firearm sales numbers are in the 10 to 20 million range per year. The number of NICS checks is not a perfect fit for the number of firearms sold. Tennessee runs a NICS check on every carry permit holder in the state every year. That kind of usage helps to explain the ratio of NICS to private firearms increases.

One check can be used to purchase multiple firearms, and most people with carry permits are not required to have an instant check performed when they purchase a firearm.  They had it done when they obtained their permit.

2013 was an anomalous year, likely because of the strong push for restrictive gun legislation by the Obama administration. In 2013, there were .76 firearms added for each NICS check. The trend went back to "normal" in 2014, with .58 firearms added per NICS check, and dropped a little in 2015, with .55 firearms added per NICS Check.

I estimated 2016 using .566 firearms added for each NICS check.  That figure gives us 15.6 million firearms added in 2016, for a total of over 404 million firearms in the U.S. private stock at the end of the Obama presidency.

©2017 by Dean Weingarten: Permission to share is granted when this notice and link are included.

Gun Watch

[William Tell]

TigersEye said: "For example, firearms brought home by veterans as souvenirs ..."

Has something changed since I came home in 1971? We were not even allowed to bring home an expended cartridge case.

What "souvenirs" are allowed?

[TigersEye]

My '59 Chevy truck isn't ready for scrap either but it's not in as good an operating condition as my 101 year old pistol.

OTOH, my oldest rifle is about 80 years old, and many are decades old. They'll outlast any car I ever own.

If you're going to nitpick a point it's probably best not to follow it with an anecdote that counters your nitpick. LOL

[TigersEye]

Thousands, maybe tens of thousands, of firearms were brought home in WWI, WWII and maybe from Korea too. There were wars before 1971.

[M Kehoe]

The Muslim Marxist was the best firearms salesman of the century.

5.56mm

[PROCON]

96 million private firearms added under the Obama administration. From 308 million at the start to 404 million at the end, a 31% increase in just two terms!

Thanks Dean!

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[libstripper]

If gun ownership were a,problem, by now the U.S. would be a,bullet pocked wasteland, with TN and TN hardest hit.

[Kommodor]

That was ‘before’ you came home in ‘71. More like 1945...

[Scrambler Bob]

No wonder the oceans are rising.

Boat accidents, you know.

[Reno89519]

I wonder how accurate this is. What percent of population does not have guns? Change over years. And for gun owners, what is average each? I have a few, a small collection yet by some studies I’m surprisingly on the high side. Which is personally surprising and makes me doubt counts as I suspect lots of gun owners lots more than me. I know when I shoot competitively, the conversations suggest my count is not comparable. Anyway, guess the best stat is number produced or sold, presume most are still in circulation decades later. Besides, when is the last time someone actually threw out a gun?

[MileHi]

With reasonable maintenance a hundred year old firearm still works nearly as well as it did the day it was manufactured.

Yes they do, and that is half the fun of it.

[dsc]

“For example, firearms brought home by veterans as souvenirs would not be recorded as entering the stream of commerce.”

I don’t believe that’s allowed any more.

Of course, I’ve been retired for 18 years, so...

[TigersEye]

Yes it is! Firearms are a very non-perishable commodity.
Most homes don’t age as well.

[Artemis Webb]

I lost all my boats in a gun accident.

[TigersEye]

I don’t believe that’s allowed any more.

But for a long time it was which was the point.

[hoosierham]

Did the 1958 law stop souveneir guns?
I know it killed mail order sales.

[dsc]

I don’t remember the source of the prohibition.

[dsc]

Those guns entered the US, sure. My point was just that it’s not adding to growth now.

[ConservaTeen]

Nice...I feel like asking dad (DeplorableAmerican1776) to take me to the gun range...

[TigersEye]

My point was that it added to the total number of firearms in private possession now which was the subject of the article.

[Ancesthntr]

“For example, firearms brought home by veterans as souvenirs would not be recorded as entering the stream of commerce. Smuggling would be another unrecorded source.”

---

Home manufacturing is becoming more of a factor. Defense Distributed makes a mini-mill that can turn an 80% AR receiver (AR-15 or AR-10 size) into a 100% receiver with no flaws in about 3 hours. Fit it in, tighten some fasteners, push a button and then go watch a football game. When the game is over, your receiver is ready. Then assemble it - an hour or so - and install an upper (10 seconds), and you have an unregistered semi-auto rifle. DD is going to update the software soon to do the same for a .45 Gov’t Model receiver. They have sold thousands of these machines.

This speaks not at all to the similar manufacture of receivers with drill presses and jigs.