More than 400 Million Private Firearms in the United States

Gun Watch ^ | 3 September, 2017 | Dean Weingarten

[marktwain]

The number of private firearms in the United States continues to soar. According to the Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives, (ATF) numbers released in September, 2017, the number of firearms added to the private stock in 2015 was 12,945,416. That number lags a bit more than a year behind because the ATF is legislatively bound to hold the numbers for at least a year before releasing them. This protects the various companies proprietary rights and possible competitive advantages that come with the numbers.

The 2015 numbers bring the total private firearms in the United States to 388.5 million, rounded to 389 million.  A year ago, I predicted that the number for  the end of 2015 would be 388+ million firearms. From Gun Watch, 1 September, 2015:

At the end of 2015, the stock should be at 388+ million firearms.  Given the current trend, another 12 million or more firearms will be added in 2016, bringing the total stock to 400 million+ firearms by the end of the Obama presidency.
At the end of 2008 and the beginning of the Obama presidency, there were about 308 million private firearms in the United States.   After eight years of President Obama in the highest executive position, I predict that there will be over 400 million.

In 2016, there were 27,538,673 NICS checks. That conservatively translates into another 15.6 million firearms added to the private stock in the United States.

 

The trend in National Instant Check System (NICS) is for more checks to be done for things other than firearms. The average number of private firearms added to the United States stock is about .6 firearms per NICS check.

NICS performs a check when people buy firearms from federally licensed dealers in the United States.  It is also used to perform background checks on people applying for firearm carry permits in those states where such permits are required or offered by law.  There are now over 16 million carry permits in the United States. Firearm sales numbers are in the 10 to 20 million range per year. The number of NICS checks is not a perfect fit for the number of firearms sold. Tennessee runs a NICS check on every carry permit holder in the state every year. That kind of usage helps to explain the ratio of NICS to private firearms increases.

One check can be used to purchase multiple firearms, and most people with carry permits are not required to have an instant check performed when they purchase a firearm.  They had it done when they obtained their permit.

2013 was an anomalous year, likely because of the strong push for restrictive gun legislation by the Obama administration. In 2013, there were .76 firearms added for each NICS check. The trend went back to "normal" in 2014, with .58 firearms added per NICS check, and dropped a little in 2015, with .55 firearms added per NICS Check.

I estimated 2016 using .566 firearms added for each NICS check.  That figure gives us 15.6 million firearms added in 2016, for a total of over 404 million firearms in the U.S. private stock at the end of the Obama presidency.

©2017 by Dean Weingarten: Permission to share is granted when this notice and link are included.

Gun Watch

[marktwain]

96 million private firearms added under the Obama administration. From 308 million at the start to 404 million at the end, a 31% increase in just two terms!

[TigersEye]

The whole thing just makes me feel warm and fuzzy all over!

The DemoRats have been pushing for gun control for decades.
This is how it has been working out for them.

• The percentage of Americans who own guns has increased.
• The percentage of Americans who believe we have a right to own guns has increased.
• The number of guns owned per gun owner has increased.
• The amount of ammunition possessed per gun owner has increased.
• Concealed carry laws have spread from state to state like wildfire.
• Castle Doctrine laws have been passed in numerous states.
• Stand Your Ground laws have been passed in many states.
• Gun rights lobbying groups have become a cottage industry.
• In the worst economy since the Great Depression the firearms industry can't keep up with orders or expand fast enough.
• 65.4 Million Guns Bought Since Obama Took Office, 91% More Than Bush's First-Term Total 2/12/2013
• 46,455 Background Checks For Gun Purchases Each Day Under Obama 5/3/2013

And in the last two months... (Nov. 2012 and Dec. 2012)

• Americans Buy Enough Guns in Last Two Months to Outfit the Entire Chinese and Indian Armies 1/14/2013
• NRA membership has increased by 250,000. (Jan. 2013)

And it continues...

• NRA Surges to Record 5 Million Members (May 4, 2013)

And there is more...

• FBI Report: Early 2013 Crime Decrease Coincides with Gun Sales Boom

And more...

• FBI: March 2014 Was Biggest March in Gun Background Check History
  ...the raw data shows "2,488,842 total background checks
  were performed in March 2014."

And yet more...

• Gun sales spike in June (highest June sales since 1999) July 7, 2015
  Background checks for gun sales spiked 11% in June compared to last year, making it the busiest June ever,...

And more and more and...

• FBI data shows record number of September gun sales October 10, 2015
  FBI's National Instant Background Check System shows gun sales hit a record high for the fifth month in a row with 1,795,102 prospective gun owners processed in September.

We just keep buyin' more...

• Gun Sales Set Record for Sixth Month in a Row Sales for October 2015

And we bought more more more...

• Record for U.S. Gun Background Checks Set on Black Friday 12/3/2015

And more and more and more...

• 2015: The Year of the Gun (All time record number of background checks processed) 1/4/2016
  More than 23 million checks were processed through the National Instant Background Check System in 2015, an all-time record.

Could it be? More?

• July Gun Sales Crush Previous Record (2.2 million checks) 8/2/2016

More Americans buy more guns...

• October (2016) gun sales see massive spike, set yet another record 11/2/2016

KEEP FLAPPIN' YOUR LIPS, DEMOCRATS! WE'LL BUY MILLIONS MORE. ;-)

[Gay State Conservative]

An armed society is a polite society.

[grobdriver]

Every year some group of people turn 18 and a lot of them go out and buy a firearm. It happens every year and will happen every year - forever.

So what's the big deal?

Every year there are more "private" vehicles on the roads than there were the year before.

What a big nothing burger.

[2harddrive]

DACA is DemoCACA! How about TACO: Trump’s Action for Child Outsiders?

[moovova]

It appears I’m falling behind.

[ForYourChildren]

Great news!

WINNING.

Thanks for posting this.

404 million

With this large number it really amazes me that there are:

very few accidents/year
very few murders/year

[ForYourChildren]

Great post with all those gun stats!

Thanks.

[strider44]

That figure is way too low. People that own guns tend to own several. I have a “small” collection at 6 total. I live in Massachusetts which isn’t exactly a gun owners paradise. We do have a great rod and gun club in town and I have my concealed carry permit. I know many people with multiple guns.

Now my father-in-law in Texas? At last count he had 45 guns. Many he inherited from his own father. But in Texas that might be only a medium sized collection. I bet the real national number is north of 500 million

[TigersEye]

A ten year old vehicle is nearly finished and ready to scrap.
With reasonable maintenance a hundred year old firearm still
works nearly as well as it did the day it was manufactured.

[TigersEye]

My pleasure!

[wjcsux]

This really warms my heart! I’m guessing there are considerably more than 400 million privately owned firearms in the US. This figure is based on what information the ATF has available to them. There are countless private transactions that are impossible to track.

[KrisKrinkle]

“What a big nothing burger.”

Perhaps that’s the point. With 400 million guns out there, if gun ownership was going to be a problem you’d know about it.

[T-Bird45]

Don’t fall in to the trap of placing any responsibility on the hardware or mere ownership of it. Compare the total number of gun-owners against those criminally-charged for illegal use and you can figure out that illegal use is a very insignificant number. Then, you can revise your statement to reflect the real situation: If gun ownership and gun owners were really the problem, it would be plain to see.

[TigersEye]

Private transactions don’t increase the number of firearms in private hands they just move them from one hand to another. However it is true that not all firearms existent in the U.S. have been recorded from the point of manufacture. For example, firearms brought home by veterans as souvenirs would not be recorded as entering the stream of commerce. Smuggling would be another unrecorded source.

[samadams2000]

Ok about 3 more each ought to about do it .

[Celtic Conservative]

When asked what it would be like to invade the continental US, Japanese admiral Isoroku Yamamoto blanched, and said it would be a fools errand. “There would be a rifle behind every blade of grass” he was quoted as saying. Nice to see that some things remain the same.

CC

[NorthMountain]

A ten year old vehicle is nearly finished and ready to scrap.

Not really. My two vehicles are 12 and 18 years old. Not finished, not ready for scrap.

OTOH, my oldest rifle is about 80 years old, and many are decades old. They'll outlast any car I ever own.

[Robert357]

Be careful with estimates, In some locations any sale of a single firearm can result in up to 2 instant checks. (guy sells to store, put in inventory, store sells to an ultimate buyer.) If the second purchaser tries it, but ultimate doesn’t like it and purchases a different firearm the number of instant checks can go even higher.

Just as with churning in stock trading, firearms that have been in a gun collection for decades can suddenly be sold to other owners. That sale doesn’t add a new firearm to the national inventory of privately owned firearms, it just transfers it. So some of the instant checks represent no change in the net number of firearms.

[Celtic Conservative]

My Mosin-nagant is 75 years old, and is just getting broken in. Ugly as a mud fence, though.

CC