Posted on 09/18/2016 9:07:19 AM PDT by Oldpuppymax
The number of people who will truthfully answer questions about their voting intentions has sunk to less than 10%. Because of this sharp drop, pollsters have had to rely on a different metric to pull out of people what is needed to make an educated guess about how an election is likely to turn out. That new metric is the level of enthusiasm for each candidate as found among his/her supporters.
Up to this point, pollsters have largely avoided asking the enthusiasm question because they know darned well that the answers they get will not be helpful to their main objective which is electing Hillary Clinton. But with the surge in the polls that Donald Trump is now enjoying, it has finally become impossible for the media-run polls to avoid asking “The E Question.”
In its treatment of The E Question a recent article in The Hill Online tries to soften the blow to Hillary’s campaign as it discusses the relative levels of enthusiasm for each candidate. The piece makes the claim that a good ground game is just as important as voter enthusiasm. Let them hold on to that straw if they wish, but examining the E Question findings of three, large, media controlled polling outfits would appear to be far more revealing of the truth.
CNN/ORC noted that more than 20% of Clinton's “supporters” were “not at all enthusiastic” about voting for her while less than 10% of Trump’s supporters said the same thing.
They found 58% of Trump’s supporters are either “extremely” or “very” enthusiastic about...
(Excerpt) Read more at thecoachsteam.com ...
I don’t want to be overly optimistic.
I’d rather be surprised with the good news if it happens.
The number of people who will truthfully answer questions about their voting intentions has sunk to less than 10%.
Been a while since any of us had a candidate to be enthused about.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/3459154/posts?page=33#33
Coach...here is a few more tidbits on the upcoming Trump landslide POTUS victory.
- The overwhelming number of USA Hispanics & Latinos are roughly & mostly made up of Mexican-Americans, Cuban-Americans, Puerto Rican American citizens. You might even include the large Haitian community in South Florida. Most of these folks are legal or natural USA born citizens. They could care less about illegal immigrants. If one took note of the massive Trump Cuban/Haitian rally in Miami, last Friday evening, you can feel confident Trump will get many Hispanic & Latino votes. The USA biased Clinton/Obama media acts as if every Hispanic/Latina hates Trump because of his Illegal immigration positions. This is simply not true.
I can also tell you without going into the details that DJT will get between 20-25% of the African-American vote. The giant of truth and wanting the pursuit of happiness, coupled wiht the most obvious neglect of Obama, Clinton the Democrat Party, the CBC & NAACP has awoken many African-Americans to the real world!!! Trump has also made inroads by his personal overtures, directly made to African-Americans, in person. I could go on....but, I think you get the drift.
Coach.....my small input as of today...Mr. Trump will handily carry the states of Texas, Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina....with many more on the way. The Trump landslide is alive well and afoot!! However, we cannot let up our victory pursuit for one second. We not only want the POTUS victory, but we also want the total political destruction the Democrat Party, the Republican Establishment Party and the destruction of the Obama legacy, whatever that is.
GO DONALD J. TRUMP!!!
I have not tuned into the broadcast/cable news in weeks, so I wonder ...
Are the media hyping the Trump ceiling as they were in the last months of the primaries?
Then, many of the pundits/commentators kept bringing up the Trump ceiling. It was 15. Then 20. Then 30. Then 40. That he finished the nomination with 1725 delegates, as his nearest competitor had just under 500 delegates sort of made the question of a ceiling moot.
Your earlier post said...
“It has been discussed for years what the reduction in response rate has on the reliability of polls. PEW research published an article in 2012 showing that their response rate (actually making an interview) was now down to 9% (nine percent). I have seen another article indicating 8% response rate in 2014.”
That’s the response rate. It does not equate to 90% of those who do respond lying about their intentions.
This is an improvement. What matters is how many people actually bother to get up and go out to vote.
“I’d rather be surprised with the good news if it happens.”
On election night I will avoid all news media when the polls close. I will go to bed early. In the middle of the night, I’ll check Drudge for the headlines. If good, great. If Hillary, I’ll go back to bed.
You’re right, Lorianne. It will come right down to the wire - unless Trump commits a “gaffe” that the media can flog. As for Clinton, she can’t do any worse than collapsing on 9/11 - and the media has spun right past that.
Romney had big rallies too. Sanders had big rallies - and Clinton stole to nom from him. She’s trying to do the same thing to DJT - aided and abetted by the oligarchy and enemedia.
I’d love to see a Trumpslide. But the America that voted for Reagan in 1980 no longer exists.
It may come down to the wire and be decided by a last minute terror attack, driving voters to Trump and putting him solidly over the top.
I think the main problem for polling is they have no way to actually get them on the phone. Too many people don’t have landlines and don’t answer unknown numbers on cells.
A nation who will vote for a known liar and corrupt 40 year politician is no longer the country we once had. That she has the amount of support she has is very telling.
It’s a lesson we learned in 2012, when in full knowledge of what Obama was doing to the country, he got re-elected. That’s a country where parasites have overwhelmed the host.
Yessurree! Enthusiasm is too small of a word.
Hillary can’t win the election. It is Trump’s election to lose.
One analyst on a Sunday show today said she watched in Maine as thousands of people stood in line for 6 hours in -5 degree weather to see Trump.
She said his voters are almost sure to stand in line for hours to vote for him—but Hillary’s folks are not as likely to turn out, much less stand for hours.
Hillary is polling in the low to high 30s in state polls I’ve seen.
She’s nowhere near as popular as the MSM makes her out to be.
There’s zero enthusiasm for her.
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