Posted on 03/06/2016 12:15:46 PM PST by ziravan
Last night was brutal for Rubio. He has no path forward and now he cannot risk the career ending humiliation of being beat in his home state.
The writing is on the wall. Either tonight, after PR or latest Tuesday after MS and MI, Rubio will have no choice but to withdraw. He's done.
So. Strategy.
If Rubio endorses Cruz and pledges his delegates to Cruz, it's a brand new game. Unspoken but plainly in view is the idea that Rubio will be Cruz' VP choice. Ordinarily, this would be a lack of balance on a ticket to be avoided. These aren't ordinary times.
With Rubio backing Cruz in a formal way, the race becomes a two man race. The Establishment gets its influence on the ticket, the base gets an outsider at the top of the ticket. Win win.
The anti-Trump ticket is set. Cruz from this point gets to stay above the fray while Rubio does the hit pieces on Trump. And the media WILL cover it.
If they pull it off, Rubio is VP candidate. If not, he gave everything to take down Trump and that will be remembered. Plus, he doesn't have to notch a home state loss on his record.
It lets him save face on quitting. He's being a team player.
It changes the delegate math and that changes the narrative.
It focuses the attack on Trump.
It gives Cruz a potent campaign surrogate that will draw media coverage.
It provides the bridge to Rubio's votes to move to Cruz and consolidate the anti-Trump vote.
It makes Kasich immediately irrelevant. The media, in fact, will almost instantly revert to the narrative of a two man race. They will salivate over it.
Rubio is done. He can't go to Florida after last night. The only question left is does the delegate math favor withdrawing after PR tonight, or after MS/MI on Tuesday.
I'm sure all three campaigns are trying to evaluate the fallout of what comes next. Rubio vowed to keep after Trump. Trump was right last night, his poor showing takes that largely off the table. Rubio will have to find another way.
I've been asking myself all day how Rubio risks losing Florida after last night. The more than obvious answer: he can't.
So. If that's the case, what comes next?
It’s not too late for little Marco to be eligible to run for Senate again, that’s his best bet.
Maybe, but not before Florida
[If that’s the case, what comes next?]
CRUZ would lose a lot of delegates.
Foam Party Girl is going down in FL, but he’s winning Puerto Rico today.
Like a good establishment guy,Rubio will offer his delegates to the highest bidder.
I don’t know how that works. If Rubio endorses Cruz, won’t a lot of Cruz supporters take it as further evidence that Cruz is part of the establishment? Won’t that make them more likely to turn to Trump?
Oh I hope you are right, it will doom Cruz going forward.
I don’t see where Rubio adds all that much to the ticket since they don’t like him in Florida.
Kasich would be a better choice for VP.
Rubio as VP would be next in line to be Presidente of Cuba. Put the country on the fast trak. South America will come along fast.
That would be a big move.
If his internal polling says he will not win FL, this would be the smart move. It would be seen as strategic instead of forced.
“pledges his delegates to Cruz”
THAT CANNOT BE DONE !!!
Unpledged delegates are free to vote for whomever they chooses and all delegates ... on the 2nd ballot.
Try to understand that a convention is run by the delegates.
I agree that Rubio is headed for the worst political embarrassment in a generation. But your vanity raises many questions. Will he will claim that the Hispanic Flu has taken him down? Would his endorsement be intended to help or hurt Cruz? Would Cruz then be forced to disavow both the psycho stabber and Rubio?
“Foam Party Girl is going down in Fl.”
That doesn’t sound right.
I don’t think he will suspend before Florida.
He won’t have any choice afterwards.
He deserves his political banishment, he betrayed the citizens with his Gang activities.
Cruz is already with the establishment and if Rubio backs him then it won’t come as a surprise at all.
His delegates on the other hand, are a precious bag of support at the convention.
At this point, I don’t think it’s about the ultimate ticket but his to get there in the first place.
1. The narrative changes with the idea that Cruz plus Rubio have more delegate than Trump.
2. Whatever that ticket might lose, they’ll gain being the anti-Trump ticket.
3. It’ll be a two against one race. The two can tag team Trump as a single ticket.
4. The media will love it. How do you take on Trump’s biggest weapon, his command of the media? You have to out-media the Don. This is how.
As a Cruz man, that is exactly the reason why I hope he is wrong. Rubio would be the kiss of death; even Kasich would be better, and that is saying something.
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