Posted on 11/01/2015 11:03:51 AM PST by Berlin_Freeper
Who is your horse in the race?
If you said former FL Gov. Jeb Bush, you’re not in the majority.
Here is a graph that asks GOP voters who they’d like to see drop out of the race ASAP…
From IJR:
Ooooooooh, Donald Trump?
The man atop nearly every Republican poll is also number three on the list of candidates that people want to see drop out?
Interesting.
Must be a conservative poll.
Jeb and Rand, I’m sorry, but it’s time to go fellas.
Question: Why isn’t Kasich first in this poll?
Ultimately (as I noted a couple days back), I believe that Cruz, Carson, and Rubio will be the three candidates left standing at the end of the day, and it looks like others would like to see that happen, as well.
This survey consists of 1,300 likely Republican voters who watched the third GOP debate on CNBC.
“This is getting harder to do, because so many are using cell phones only, for which access for polling is not a given.”
That is very true. I didn’t drop a house phone until earlier this year. Now, I only have a cell phone and very few people have that number which is fine ‘cause I hate phones anyway. At some time, I’m sure we will lose our relative security on cell phones and we’ll get freaking salespeople and poll takers again.
.
A Google poll? The same Google whose Chairman Eric Schmidt gives money and election support parsed from Google’s extensive monitoring of everyone to Hillary?
The same Google that skewed search negative for Republicans while upranking pro-Obama sites?
Must be totally honest and reliable results. /s
According to the RCP Average, 73% of Likely Republican Voters want someone other than Trump.
The question is, as Bush, Huckabee, Paul, Kasich, Christie, Graham, Jindal, Santorum and Pataki all inevitably drop out, will their supporters switch to Trump or one of the other survivors? That is what will determine who wins.
Yea right LOL it should read Libtards.
Marco Rubio is NOT conservative.
Trump shares one problem with Jeb Bush and Hillary Clinton. No undecideds.
Either you love Trump or you hate him. There are very few undecideds in the squishy middle that he can pull over to his campaign. There are no voters that have not heard of him or already formed an opinion about him.
When a candidate is unknown (like Obama in 2008), it is much easier to convince the squishy middle undecideds to swing your way. People have a tendency to assume that the unknown candidate is much better than he is. That is why in most polls pitting an unnamed opponent against an incumbent, the unnamed opponent usually comes out on top.
Many if not most of the undecided squishy middle voters are too stupid to be allowed to vote. Unfortunately, they are allowed to vote (and frequently delivered to the polls by Democrat activists) and there are enough of them that they usually determine elections.
I really only see this as (more) bad news for Jeb and possibly good news for Carson and Rubio. The fact that low numbers want them out suggests they might be a lot of voters 2nd or 3rd choice.
This poll is meaningless.
Let’s get this straight. 1,300 likely Republican voters want to see TRUMP out of the race.There’s no mention about the millions of voters who want TRUMP to remain in the race.
They WERE right about JEB though
Bush and Rand Paul are the two most disliked, yet the Headlie reads Bush and Trump.
Gotta love the Headlies.
*************
And the rest have a larger percentage.
Anti % 73 .. Trump 78 .. Carson 90 .. Rubio 93 .. Cruz 94 .. Bush 94 .. Fiorina 97+ .. the rest of the field
Yes, pollsters ask the wrong question. Mr. Undecided is clearly #1 by a big margin. Republicans are in a mode where they name the 2 or 3 whom they could never support and the 2 or 3 they want to drop out (often the same). Then they name the 2 or 3 they prefer...not the 1 that they prefer.
In my conversations, Carson and Rubio are always in the top 3. Rubio is rarely #1. But his tea party (taxed enough already) credentials are solid. The single issue Malthusians on immigration just don’t fly with a majority of Evangelicals, and Catholics, and Capitalists, and Corporatists all of whom are intrinsically anti-Malthusian. The Republican PTA moms are Malthusian but not on immigration. That leaves the single issue Malthusians isolated...and angry.
If, say, 5% of Republican voters decide to stay home because Trump is the nominee, we end up the same place that Romney left us -- because 5% of the Republican voters stayed home because either a.) Romney wasn't conservative enough or b.) he was a Mormon.
In 2016, the 5% could range from a.) conservatives who recognize that Trump isn't really a conservative to b.) RINOs who are appalled at Trump's often unconventional behavior.
Consequently, I should think that Trump becomes a problematic nominee -- he risks losing the election by losing a potentially decisive segment of the Republican vote.
Supporters of his nomination must, therefore, be prepared to take this risk -- while hoping that Trump will draw enough support from previous non-voters and some Democrats to compensate.
Maybe he will...maybe he won't.
Sit and spin-treebob
You are already out of the closet as an advocate for illegal aliens and their employers.
The leading candidate is leading because the citizens have had enough of duplicitous politicians who care more about fraudulently documented foreignaers than the citizens.
How did that Kool-Aid taste?
It's certainly true that almost everybody has already heard of Donald Trump. And it's also likely that he's polling closer to the top of his range than other candidates (because he's polling better than other candidates).
But is it really the case that people either love him or hate him? Trump's shown enough ability to surprise people up till now that I can see him going any number of ways from here and my attitude toward him changing and developing to reflect what he chooses to do.
When a candidate is unknown (like Obama in 2008), it is much easier to convince the squishy middle undecideds to swing your way. People have a tendency to assume that the unknown candidate is much better than he is.
Sure, people of very different points of view assumed that Obama agreed with them the first time he ran, because they didn't know much about him. Even though we know more about Trump now than many people did about Obama then, all kinds of hopes build up around a candidate from outside the usual political world -- somebody who hasn't had a chance to fail at politics or alienate voters yet. I think Trump is better off than Jeb or Hillary in that respect.
Trump has 10x that many people attending his events on a consistent basis. I guess they’re there because they have nothing else to do?
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