Posted on 11/01/2012 8:44:10 PM PDT by Art in Idaho
Partisans on both sides have been making claims of a lead in the polls — the Republicans cite the national polls and the Democrats the state. I’m not a partisan or a Romney supporter, but I feel compelled to argue that the poll models are flawed and underestimating Romney’s lead.
As far as modeling in these polls, the example of Marist and Mason-Dixon in Florida is illustrative of skewing. Marist tends to report big Obama leads, and M-D has reported decent Romney results.
From the Tampa Bay Herald: “Mason-Dixon, which has been polling in Florida for 28 years, uses a survey sample based on people’s voter actual registration to match the electorate in Florida, while Marist uses a sample based on whether people say they consider themselves a Republican, Democrat or independent. About 20 percent of the likely voters in the Marist poll were Hispanic, while 13 percent were Hispanic in the Mason-Dixon poll, more in line with the Florida voting patterns.”
Nationally, Pew Research illustrates Obama’s problem, as does a new Washington Post poll. The first Pew chart shows Romney’s strong supporters exploding in October, once he showed up at the debates appearing to be a moderate. Right now, each candidate has about the same level of strong supporters..
(Excerpt) Read more at zerohedge.com ...
Beyond the polls, what does this election feel like? Feels like the country is ready for a change. They showed that clearly in 2010 and now things are even worse.
And I agree, Romney and his surrogates have seen pretty positive the last few days.
With the election field expanding into MI, PA, MN and OR, you gotta think Romney has the real toss up states locked up at this point. This is the same scenario in reverse as 2008. McCain was fighting to keep NC, and IN in the fold. And we saw how it played out. So I expect it to play out the same way on Tuesday. Romney will win by 5-6 points nationally and 300+ EVs.
You made it through the last four years. I read a few weeks back where a mom committed suicide because she thought Obama was going to win. Don’t let this eat away at you. We can always find a way out of any jam.
Obama needs to be at a minimum of 48.5% in the final polls to have a chance to win it. That is right about where Bush was back in 2004 when he won.
If he falls back to around 47%, he is finished. If gets to 48.5% plus and can stay there, it should be super close.
This is all bread and circuses. Ohio will not be close folks. Romney will take Ohio by at least 4 and nationally Obama will not get past 42/43% of the popular vote.
Republican turnout will be +3/4 over dems
Romney will get independents by close to a 2-1 margin
Work hard. GOTV!!! But the whole this thin is neck and neck was nonsense from the get go.
Relax guys Romney is set to win-—but only if we sprint to the finish line with him. Do your part, make sure everyone you know votes the correct—right—way.
If the Catholic vote swings to Romney (even the Rats believe in religious freedom of conscience) this will be a landslide for him. The Catholic vote is broad and diverse and cuts across genders, ethnicity, and race.
In sum, my election prediction is a 3-percent edge for Romney in the popular vote, and 301 to 237 lead in the electoral vote
I think this was also Dick Morris’s prediction number as well. He was on Greta tonight. I like these figures.
Feel the same. Hope that's what we see on November 7th. Anything higher than 301 would be great. Hoping for 51 with the senate too.
Can't even watch Axe anymore, but I'm sure he'll be on full throttle.
It would be deeply excellent if some of those Hispanic Catholic voters BO thinks he has locked up end up voting for Romney.
I think the American Catholic hispanic vote is going to be a lot higher for Romney than people are now predicting. I bet it's one of the 'surprises' of the data analysis after the election. Lots of reasons for Catholics to vote against Obama, an atheist, Muslim (?), (what is he?), . . and for Romney. Also, if I were a Catholic hispanic, I would have a big problem with the MSM!
When did we get a Harold?
We got a Tribune and a Times (both for birdcage use only), but no Harold ...................................................... FRegards
"Obama has overwhelming support among black voters, but turnout is expected to drop to 59 percent this year, compared to the record breaking 65% in the last election. Among more unlikely voters ages 18-29, Obama has lost 13% of his margin since 2008, and can expect a much lower turnout to boot."
Up in red on Drudge. THe RNC is complaining about mass voter fraud with machines being rigged to default to Ostinko.
They pretend it is close because they are cheating big time.
On FOX this morning they were saying if Romney wins by less than 1% in Ohio the Dems will demand a recount, which would take to Nov. 11th. That’s not even considering a 2000 style court challenge. I think that’s likely in any state that’s close.
How much Halloween candy do you have on hand?
This thread helps make me feel better about next Tuesday. This damn thing should be a blow-out but the media is keeping Barry in it.
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