Posted on 11/01/2012 8:44:10 PM PDT by Art in Idaho
Partisans on both sides have been making claims of a lead in the polls — the Republicans cite the national polls and the Democrats the state. I’m not a partisan or a Romney supporter, but I feel compelled to argue that the poll models are flawed and underestimating Romney’s lead.
As far as modeling in these polls, the example of Marist and Mason-Dixon in Florida is illustrative of skewing. Marist tends to report big Obama leads, and M-D has reported decent Romney results.
From the Tampa Bay Herald: “Mason-Dixon, which has been polling in Florida for 28 years, uses a survey sample based on people’s voter actual registration to match the electorate in Florida, while Marist uses a sample based on whether people say they consider themselves a Republican, Democrat or independent. About 20 percent of the likely voters in the Marist poll were Hispanic, while 13 percent were Hispanic in the Mason-Dixon poll, more in line with the Florida voting patterns.”
Nationally, Pew Research illustrates Obama’s problem, as does a new Washington Post poll. The first Pew chart shows Romney’s strong supporters exploding in October, once he showed up at the debates appearing to be a moderate. Right now, each candidate has about the same level of strong supporters..
(Excerpt) Read more at zerohedge.com ...
They are telling us it’s close in hopes of getting Barry’s freeloader base to the polls.
It may all come down to one county in Ohio. If Obama does not get a fair turn out in Cuyugo county in OH, its curtains for him.
I sure hope it is a landslide. My stomach can’t take much more of this tension.
You may be right. All of a sudden, after Romney having the lead and the momo, FOX calling it even. ?
A few days ago Rasmussin was interviewed on Fox and said that the week before an election the incumbent picks up a point or two. The in the last days, the undecideds typically go for the challenger.
Ohio doesn’t matter anymore. With NC and FL going Romney, the libs are still hung up on Ohio.
This is gonna be a repeat of 1980. Sit back and enjoy the show. ;)
Could be because their Fox poll shows it tied at 46-46.
Could also be because none of the major polls are currently showing movement towards Romney. Some have shown no movement either direction. Others have shown small increases for Baraq this week.
I think it is pretty clear that Obammy got a slight bounce from the hurricane. Not much of one, but enough to stop Romney’s momentum at least temporarily.
I am thinking that Barry’s positive blip will disappear just as quickly as it showed up and that by the end of the weekend, we will start seeing the polls breaking towards Romney.
If so, it should carry through all the way to election day and propel us to victory!
Anyway, for what it's worth, altogether too many of my relatives in inner city Cleveland voted for Barry in 2008. All of them have terrible buyer's remorse and plan to vote against him this year. I hear the Dem numbers in Cuyahoga are terrible compared to 2008. So, there is hope, albeit anecdotal until Tuesday.
Lets hope his prediction is correct. MSM is going full bore for Obama. They own the weekend too. .
I heard the first thing they did was take 100,000 dead Ohioans in Cuyahoga County off the rolls in 2010.
I didn’t hear Rasmussen say that, but that is the exact pattern I have noticed in past elections as well.
I think Sandy may have delayed it a bit, but as long as it holds true this time, Romney should have at least a three point win on election night.
I’ve been eating every comfort food in sight, pollywog. candy bars from Halloween, pretzel rolls, meatloaf, mashed potatoes. ..
Hmmm..not that great of a diet..but I figure after the election, I’ll go back to healthy(or not). Right now it’s out of the question.
I guarantee it’ll be a 20-30 point win, or my name isn’t Mutt the Hoople.
Can you even imagine what the Sunday shows will be like? I’m not going to watch but you know Cutter and Axelnuts will be full throttle and absolutely nauseating.
Anyway, for what it's worth, altogether too many of my relatives in inner city Cleveland voted for Barry in 2008. All of them have terrible buyer's remorse and plan to vote against him this year. I hear the Dem numbers in Cuyahoga are terrible compared to 2008. So, there is hope, albeit anecdotal until Tuesday.
I read the same thing about low early turnout in Cuyahoga county. Obama is finished in OH if this is true and it continues. Your anecdotal evidence might be quite telling.
If early projections from Cuyahoga show a 10% drop in numbers) this election may be over by 10 p.m. EST since OH will most definitely be called for Romney. A win in IA or WI and this seals it. WI may be less difficult for Romney than IA.
Good! That keeps our side from being over confident. It should motivate people to go to the polls. I’d rather see headlines on November 7 about how surprising Romney’s margin of victory is rather than how Obama eked out a victory in the electoral college in spite of losing the popular vote.
Rob Portman was just smiling away on Fox (Greta?) when he was interviewed tonite about the race in Ohio. Looked like the winners gleam to me.
I sure hope so, but I don't expect Obama to concede just an hour after polls close on the east coast. I would expect he would wait till after they close in Californistan.
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