Posted on 08/07/2012 7:52:46 AM PDT by jmaroneps37
A just released Gallup poll survey of voters who voted in 2008 presidential election and indicate they will vote again in November holds some bad news for Barack Obama.
Among the questions asked of its respondents Gallup asked if the person being surveyed was planning to switch his/her Party vote to now support either Republican Mitt Romney or Democrat Barack Obama.
Of those who had voted for John McCain in 2008 5% now supported Barack Obama. Of those original Obama supporters 9% reported their intention to vote for Republican Romney.
When this 9% switch is applied to Obama’s raw popular vote total, the 5% switch is factored against John McCain’s raw vote and both are compared the difference becomes a dead heat with an insignificant 17,000 vote lead for Obama.
The telling data in this report is the 4% undecided – which breaks against the incumbent to a high degree and the 11% that refused to say for whom they voted in 2008. This adds credence to the possibility that a substantial number of 2008 Obama supporters have strong felling of “buyer’s remorse.”
It is, after all very much easier to find someone who says “I voted for Obama but I’m sorry and I won’t do that again,” than to locate a 2008 voter who says “You know, I voted for McCain but I’m sorry. I wish I had voted for Obama.”
Gallup also tells us a high percentage of independents (18%) have switched as have Easterners those with a high school diploma and unmarried men all reporting a 15% switch.
“Independents went to Obama 52/ 44 in 2008 every indication ..these voters who likely make up about 33% of the total turnout have soured on him, this is significant bad news for Barack Obama.
(Excerpt) Read more at coachisright.com ...
Obama will lose ground from every demographic group, including blacks.
I guess its no longer proper to oversample democrats by 18% in the polls.
Every one of these polls, in all the ‘battleground’ states, oversample democrats...they start out with a pure guess about turnout ratios, and presto, Barry wins the poll.
The real indicator is that Barry is consistently underperforming vs the Dem oversample rate. He is in trouble.
So what will they do to the GOP?
This really indicates very bad news for Obama becase his biggest problem is enthusiasm. So if he and Romney are starting out at parity in context of 2008 its not good at all. It means if the election were held today Obama would lose by nearly the same or larger margin than he defeated McCain. Right now this race isn’t even about Romney so much. Its really about Obama versus himself. Romney just has to look competent and be an acceptable not Obama. Already Gallop shows the enthusiasm GAP between GOP and Democrats to be huge. So there is no way Obama is going to make up for his loses of white vote. He doesn’t even have his 2008 vote sewn up which is why he’s committing political suicide going far left.
Now Romney is in a perfect position. He has tons of money in the bank. He has yet to pick what could be a VP that could increase his standing with conservatives who just don’t trust him.(I am one of those) If Romney continues to play it too safe he does risk turning what could be Republican landslide into a weak Republican win.
We will know what he is thinking by his VP pick. He picks anyone that isn’t a solid conservative and we will know how he intends to govern and in that case he may not even want a strong conservative win. That is the worst case. The best case is that Romney could prove to be a ‘Manchurian Candidate’ of sorts. There are indicators that he very well may be vastly more conservative than his record indicates. I wouldn’t bet my life on it but it is remotely possible. So what we could get in my estimation is.
1. A Romney that is roughly equivalent to Pres GWH Bush in politics.
2. A Romney that is worse than Pres GWH Bush and works not to strengthen or maintain the conservative gains but to instead errode it and soften it.
3. A Romney that is more conservative than he seems who quietly and forcably with total control of govt works to undo not only what Pres Obama has done but to totally transform entiltment programs more towards what Paul Ryan has presented.
Right now I get the feeling that team Romney is stringing us along lowering expectations. If they deliver even less its going to get really ugly fast.
Maybe it’s just elaborate disinformation so that Conservatives will feel comfortable and stay home without voting.
I hardly trust anything by now.
Heard on the radio last week (maybe Hannity) where he was asking the guy from Quinnipiac about over sampling. The poll dude said they don’t ask party affilliation until after the questions and that is how they end up with an “over sample”. So Sean says well what if they all turn out to be democrats and the guy says well they would throw that out. So Sean says what is the percent they use to determine legitimacy especially since they are oversampling at rate greater than the 2008 or 2010 actual election numbers. All he would say is they don’t ask the question until the end.
This tells me they have their agenda and are follwong the script.
I still think that the great silent majority will rise up and correct the error of 2008 and this will be end in huge defeat for Obama.
If they take a sample like this they need to normalize their data by using only likely voter respondents then adjust the sample by adjusting it to current voter registration demographics. Then you have scientific credibility.
your link directs us to a “blank page”
They thought they’d be getting another Bill Clinton. But instead they got Malcolm X.
Your link will never work. The href value is “”.
Something very, very bizarre going on here. BOTH links to this video display that it does not exist on the server AFTER I just watched it TWICE at YouTube!!!
Go to YouTube and search for Jeff Kuhner re. Arpaio’s investigation.
Right now I get the feeling that team Romney is stringing us along lowering expectations. If they deliver even less its going to get really ugly fast.
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I really don’t know what to think. I don’t care a great deal for Romney, only because he is probably more liberal than what he says he is. He is probably really a nice person. Anybody who has been as sucessful raising kids as he has been has to have a lot of the right stuff going on in his life.
The one thing that is REALLY encouraging to me is that Rand Paul will be speaking at the convention. Rand Paul is my senator. I am pleased to say that I was able to vote for him. It is hard to think of Rand Paul and Mitt Romney in the same sentence, the truth is I would love Rand Paul as President. If Romney is giving this exposure to the Tea Party Senator, I am wondering if he has sympathies here. I can hope anyway.
I know a lot of Mormons, the vast majority are much more conservative than Romney appears. Maybe they make them different up in the northeast. If Romney is the “Manchurian” candidate I hope this Manchurian spent some time reading about the Tea Party.
I can’t imagine what is going on inside the head of someone who VOTED FOR MCCAIN IN 2008 and is switching to obama. That would be a group of the most IGNORANT PEOPLE ON THE FACE OF THE EARTH.
This will help offset the rat’s voter fraud.
He’ll gain a lot of votes from illegal immigrants.
The encouraging news is there are many who voted for Obama who will either now vote for Romney or not at all.
I seriously doubt there is one McCain voter who will vote for Obama, and a much smaller ratio that will not vote at all.
Under this scenario, Romney can easily win. The difference between simply winning, and a 48 state blowout is enthusiasm, and a very large part of that depends on who he picks for VP, and if he does an aggressive campaign after the convention.
I respectfully disagree. The enthusiasm on our side is for defeating Obama. Most conservatives see Romney as merely the vehicle for getting there. His VP pick is therefore a win/break even situation. Romney CAN pick up SOME points with a particular VP pick, but short of picking McCain as his VP he really has a free throw here. The enthusiasm will continue to grow on our side as the list of impressive and important Ted Cruz-like primary wins pile up.
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