Posted on 03/08/2012 10:55:25 AM PST by techno
I just read today's Rasmussen national poll of the GOP presidential contenders that includes the claim that 56% of GOP primary voters feel it is important to choose a candidate who has the best chance of beating President Obama in the general election. Translated, it means these folks in the main support Governor Mitt Romney in his quest to secure the GOP presidential nomination in 2012 because they feel he has the best chance of the four candidates of beating Obama.
I believe this premise is utter hogwash and the outrageous creation of media disinformation and propaganda and to put my money where my mouth or computer is, I am going to list 25 reasons why I believe Romney has little or no shot of beating Obama:
1)Obama will be 51 and Romney will be 65 during the general election campaign. One will tire more easily than the other and will appear more energetic and dynamic and the most positive overall throughout the campaign. Can you guess which one?
The candidate who is the most upbeat or has the more positive message has won every election for the past 100 years except for FDR in 1936 at the height of the Depression.
2)The Father of Romneycare will be accused of gross hypocrisy by the media and the Left if he still continues to strongly advocate the repeal of Obamacare. As a result Obamacare will NOT become a central focus in the GE and take away a huge ace up our sleeve that could tip the election to our favor.
3)Paul Begala on CNN on Super Tuesday said it best:
"Mitt Romney is not really that good of a politician."
Simply Romney is at best a mediocre politician with limited talent and skills and average communication skills. Meanwhile President Obama is a superstar politician and charismatic. Big edge to the Messiah.
4)Romney's glaring weakness with white working class voters will allow Obama to convert himself into an advocate of the working man with immense help from the MSM (He will deserve an Academy Award for pulling it off.)and only lose this demographic by 23 points or less which Ruy Teixiera, a Democratic political analyst, has told Obama he can still win a narrow election victory if he achieves this. In 2010, the Democrats lost this demographic by 30 points to the GOP (63% to 33%).
5)Rumors that there is a faction of the GOP establishment that is willing "throw the fight to Obama" to ensure the coronation of Jeb Bush in 2016. Fifth columnists set to sabotage Romney.
6)Using a boxing analogy, Mitt Romney is not capable or willing to attempt to knock out the champion ("will not light my hair on fire to satisfy the base") and instead intends to take the fight to a decision. There is an old saying in boxing, "You have to knock out the champ, to take away his belt."
That's not quite true, but if Obama can fight an effective fight where he does not put himself in jeopardy by letting his guard down and counterpunches effectively, he will win the fight on talent alone, especially against an opponent that does not intend to be super-aggressive during the fight.
7)Obama has bought the loyalty of the referee (the media) and the 3 judges who will decide the fight if it goes to a decision (voter fraud). Romney really has to knock the Messiah out (win by a wide enough margin).
8)Low intensity and enthusiasm among white conservatives and white evangelicals toward a Romney candidacy because of Mitt's past record of flip-flopping and lingering doubts Romney is a "true" conservative will result in low voter turnout similar to what happened in 2008 with McCain. In contrast Obama will be able to whip up his base and turnout among non-whites will be high because his strength is organization from his days as a community organizer.
9)A potential viable third party arising as a result of a Romney nomination bleeding away white voters that would have otherwise gone to the GOP nominee.
10)Romney's Mormon religion will become a central issue during the campaign and powerful forces will create the impression that Mitt is from a different planet, that he is evil and really scary and should be considered an anathema to Christian voters. Enough Christians or evangelicals will refuse to vote for Romney (especially in the South).
11)Obama will have a bigger war chest than Romney. Romney 's record in the 2012 primary season shows he can only prevail over his main opponent if he carpet-bombs them to death by outspending them by at least 5 to 1 in a state. He will NOT be able to do that to Obama.
12)Obama will demagogue Romney on a daily basis and Romney has proven he has no answer for such tactics. It will act like a left jab, constantly scoring points and serve to keep Romney at bay. Romney will not be able to penetrate Obama's defenses. Of course the MSM will aid Obama here as well.
13)The Left will use Alinsky tactics against Romney which Mitt or his team is NOT capable of dealing with or are hamstrung by the GOP establishment in dealing with them.
14)Obama owns or controls the MSM. Romney does not have the ebullient personality or public speaking ability to transcend the daily bombardment he will receive in the way of Leftist disinformation and propaganda.
15)Romney will lose one or two red states in the midwest or Deep South which any other Republican nominee would have won. Missouri and Georgia are likely candidates.
16)Polls that have shown since the beginning of 2012 that Romney is losing independent supporters big time.
17)Romney's primary strength is in winning "blue states". That will not help him against Obama who will win in all blue states.
18)Romney is not an inspirational politician and like McCain will have problems mobilizing the GOTV.
19)Charges of racism will dog Romney because the Church of Latter Day Saints did not allow Blacks full priesthood privileges until 1978.
20)And because of charges of racism or insensitivity, Romney will become a clone of McCain and not attack Obama as vigorously as he needs to beat him. It's like fighting with one hand tied behind your back.
21)Romney will NOT attack Obama on ideological grounds and thus NOT create a clear separation between him and Obama. Better the devil you know, than the devil you don't know.
22)Romney's past as a high-powered businessman will be used against him to portray him as an enemy of the working class--class warfare. And this line of argument will be used by Obama to blunt the economic argument Romney will make and de-legitimize his contention that Obama is a poor steward of the economy and on fiscal matters.
23)Romney will reject Sarah Palin's help and that will contribute to a depressed voter turnout among Palinstas.
24)Any endorsement by conservative groups of Romney will be lukewarm at best. They will not help rally conservatives en masse to Romney's tent.
25)Republican candidates who are moderates historically do not defeat incumbent Democratic Presidents (Dole, McCain)
Having said this, the general election will be close because Obama has consistently polled in the 44%-48% overall approval range. Romney will NOT be blown out by Obama, but a narrow loss is a loss regardless if it is the Super Bowl or a presidential election.
As to their age, I will take Romney’s 65 years over Obama’s 51 years of chain smoking, buttsex and coke abuse.
My own reasons:
1: RINOmney is a vapid dork.
2: Why get Obama lite when I could get the whole smelly package? Or...the smelly hole...package?
To repeat:
I do not like Mittens on the sheet.
I think his brains are concrete.
I will not vote for him, he’s left and right
Mainly because he’s just not bright.
I will not vote for the vapid hack
I do not care if he’s got a Cadillac.
No fan I am of that RINO pile
He’ll change three times if you wait a while.
If I want someone without merit,
I’ll simply vote for the Muslim ferret.
BS.
Traditionally, a nominee appeals to his Party’s base during the primaries and then runs to the center during the general election. McCain violated that rule and had to defend both his right flank and his left flank at the same time. Romney would have to do the same.
I believe that Romney is a social moderate at best, and probably a social liberal. But let’s assume that he is actually a social conservative who has donned a cloak of liberalness. Even if that were so, he would still have to run to the right in the general election to convince the right wing to support him.
Santorum would not have that problem. He could concentrate on the middle. The right wing would understand who he is and what he is trying to do, and most would stick with him. Santorum could wage a one-front war during the general election. Romney would have to futilly attempt to wage a two-front war.
Romney is the same 3 day old fish wrapped in a newspaper
Ronald Reagan was 70 when he took office .
You’re down to 24 reasons.
But Reagan was not running against the Messiah but a dork named Jimmy Carter.
Romney can beat Obama. So can Rick or Newt. Or Bachmann. Or Cain. Or Trump. Or Palin. Or Jeb.
The general election will be a referendum on Obama. With those approval ratings, jobless numbers, and gas prices ... he could run against an empty chair and lose.
SnakeDoc
Also... the liberals voting for him today will NOT be voting for him in the general election. Combine that burden with an uninspired conservative base and you have another McCain disaster.
The ONLY difference I see between Mitt and the polished turd in the WH is Mitt does not hate the USA. Obomination does hate this country, our constitution and will continue to apologize for our success whenever possible. BO is doing as much as possible, without declaring war on us, to destroy this country and we are letting him get away with it.
“Electability” critics of Romney have to believe that a majority of American voters are hardworking social conservatives, church going and well-informed voters. Unfortunately they are not.
you are correct. But ...Romney needs those votes to have a chance. Dare I say it? Romney/Santorum? I wonder if that ticket would have a chance. I’d sure like to see some numbers from PA on that point. McCain’s states plus PA would gave us a chance at booting obama.
I hate that we are in this horrible predicatment. But we are. And regardless, obama has to go.
Well, I’m surely not voting for Obama....
Sorry, but many of you reasons are true no matter who runs. So, you don’t like Romney, I don’t either. This is how I see it.
Obama starts with about 47% of the vote wrapped up. He needs to move the dial about 3 or 4 points.
However we nominate starts with about 44% of the vote wrapped up. We will need to move the dial about 6 to 7 points.
Before anyone gets depressed, this is actually a good place to be against a setting president.
The question then is who can move the dial? My vote: Newt Gingrich. Mitt is dangerous and Rick is either not ready or will never be ready. I can’t decide.
I guess it depends how many hardworking social conservative, church going and well-informed voters are stupid enough to vote for Obama or not vote and permit Obama to finish the “work” he has started.
This goes as far as Romney’s VP choice. I believe that Romney will pick Susana Martinez falsely believing that he needs to pick a moderate woman who is Hispanic of Mexican descent. However, this tactic will still not work for Romney, and it will bring down Martinez in 2014.
I believe that if Romney is at the top of the ticket, that the GOP will lose the House and 4 Senate seats (including Snowe’s and Liberman’s.)
Any of the remaining 4 GOP candidates beat Obama in 2012.
Reasons Obama will lose in 2012:
a. McCain wins in 2008 if only 3% of those who voted would have switched. In 2012 it is a matter of getting those 3%
b. That 3% will come from...millions who have been laid off
and can’t find jobs, more millions who are under water on their mortgages and more millions who have been foreclosed.
c. Gas prices will be a big factor. Price at pump has
already more than doubled since Obama was anointed.
d. Another large group is disillusioned young voters who
expected “hope & change” to make their lives better. It has
not worked. Many young college graduates can’t find jobs.
Their college tuition has escalated significantly in 3 years.
I have 2 kids in college so I see that first hand.
e. More GOP voters are angry at Obama in 2012 than they were
in 2008. He was basically an unknown in 2008 and many did
not bother voting since maverick McCain did not excite many.
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