Eanie meanie, chile beany.....
Posted on 09/21/2011 11:33:07 AM PDT by parksstp
Watching Palin, you know that when she does something, she only does it at 110% or more. And like most politicians, she doesn’t like to lose (see her 2008 night of the election – yeah, she was angry McCain wouldn’t let her speak, but I’m also sure deep down she was bitter over the fact that the American voters bought the whole “hope and changey” platitudes.) And obviously, she wants to fix that bitter taste from 2008. How she accomplishes that (runs, doesn’t run, etc) has been a matter of debate.
The biggest hinderance you hear about Palin running for POTUS is her “electability”. Polls would have you believe her unfavorable ratings will never allow her to win the GOP nomination, or if she does win it, lose the 2012 General Election.
Well, yes, polls can help determine the outlook of a situation. Take a look at the current sitting President. All signs point to him losing his base, in addition to independents, as the country spirals downward.
But we have seen one thing proven time and time again. That regardless of polls, the ideological support of each party, usually in some fashion or another, returns to their ideological candidate. Usually it is enough. Sometimes it is not (McCain).
The “electability” argument against Palin usually goes that she cannot win the election because she cannot win moderates or independents. Okay, fine, valid point. Now my contention is going to be this: Does she really have to win them to win the 2012 Election?
Some folks would scoff off at me: “Of course she does! Nobody is going to win the election if they can’t win the middle.” Oh really?
The “Moderate/Independent” label is broad and misleading. Looking at some of the CNN Map data from the 2004, 2008, and 2010 Elections, I’ve come across something interesting. These “Moderate/Independents” tend to vote for the Republican candidate in counties carried by the Republican. Shockingly, the “Moderate/Independents” also tend to vote for the Democrat in counties carried by the Democrat. Not so moderate/independent as we thought. And when you hear the media talking about how she can’t win the “Independents” they’re referring to the ones in the blue counties. Even though no Republican ever carries anywhere near a majority of independents in the blue counties, they expect Palin to accomplish this task to have legitimacy, while in all honesty, she can run just as mediocre in those areas as Bush did, provided she runs strong margins in the traditional conservative areas. Picking up 20% of “Independents” in Broward County, FL would be all she would need provided she ran as strong elsewhere in the state where she is supposed to.
Okay, sorry for the digression, back to the question of the thread. Like I said, Sarah likes to win and hates losing. Well folks, there’s one event going on right now, that if you’re a Palin supporter you better be on the phone lines making it happen.
The current bill in PA to reapportion the Electoral College votes blows the electability argument out of the water. IF it passes, based on redistricting, it’s possible that the GOP candidate could come out of PA with as many as 10 Electoral Votes. That’s the equivalent of IA and NH, without actually having to win IA and NH. It turns the Electoral Math almost decisively towards the GOP candidate.
Except for MO (given it’s closeness), there is no Red State from 2008 that is in any serious jeopardy to turn blue in 2012. MO has shown that there is usually enough conservative votes to offset StL/KC. IN and NC both appear to be heading Red this time around. VA can return to the Red column by reclaiming Loudon, Chesapeake, Suffolk, and other Bush-majorities that McCain lost. FL and OH seem to go as the economy goes. Obama did not blow McCain out in either of these states, instead McCain severly underperformed in traditionally red/conservative areas. That’s 266 Electoral votes. When you add in the potential of 10 Electoral Votes from PA, it’s game over for Obama.
In fact, it opens up viable winning scenarios for the Republican without having to win both OH and FL. For example, let’s say for whatever reason, Obama succeeds in getting “old people” scared to vote for Palin and wins FL. If she still carried OH and reclaimed the Bush States of IA, NM, CO, and NV or NH, and won at least 7 CD’s in PA, she would have 270 to win. Likewise, if she lost OH due to voter fraud, but managed to carry FL, CO, and one other state (IA, NM, NV, NH), 6-7 CD’s in PA would also get her to 270.
With the passage of this bill, the Electoral Math is realistically in her favor. Not that it wasn’t before, but this bill may be the decisive factor in her decision to run for two reasons. First, the GOP primary voters can feel assured that based on the Electoral Math probabilities, they can select the candidate they really want to without having to worry about the “electability” factor. This is the #1 argument she will need to make to capture voters from the Perry and the other conservative campaigns. Second, from an economic standpoint, her campaign can throw the kitchen sink at OH/FL immediately putting Obama on defense, then pick and choose what other blue states they will gamble for (but don’t have to win) given their status of funds.
IF this PA bill passes, look for a Palin announcement shortly thereafter. If none occurs, then she won’t be running.
I don’t know when Sarah will announce her intentions, but I REALLY HATE the phrase “110 percent.” THERE IS NO SUCH NUMBER.
This is some serious analysis, folks.
Eanie meanie, chile beany.....
She will whisper "John has a long moustache" in Armenian to Sean Hannity two days in advance so freepers will know it's coming.
She’s not going to base her decision to run on a couple of electoral votes in PA. That’s not how she’s wired—and she has a great chance even if the bill doesn’t pass.
Maybe that is why there is a string of lights on sale at Ebay.Have you purchased all of these items yet?
http://pophangover.com/2008/10/02/top-15-ridiculous-sarah-palin-items-for-sale-on-ebay/
HURRY they will be worth way more once she runs and is declared the President just by running; at the end of Oct. or Nov. or Dec. or Jan.or Feb. or March,May,June,Or July,Aug.Sept,Oct,Nov.
I agree. People like Sarah and Todd are hard to find these days.
Seriously. Sarah Palin is the Honey Badger of presidential politics. Honey Badger don't care about polls, or the MSM, or the electoral vote change in PA, or anything else that the other candidates are worried about.
She's got her own drum, and she is marching!
That is slightly off.
The guy at 7-11 told me to tell you that the god vishnu told a friend of his brother-in-law’s second cousin that palin will announce the second Sunday following Brown Shamrock Wednesday.
She will say “John has a long moustache and a big smile and wants a blue icee” in Armenian to Sean Hannity two days in advance (This phrase in english is- ya know sean crony capitalism is bad and all need vetted don’t ya be listenin to the lamestream media) so freepers will know it’s coming.
It will be announced on radio from Alaska only after all of the lamestream media says even Palin is beating Obama in the polls are just for strippers.
I agree! And tho I've posted this before, I'll drop it in here again...
Mrs. Palin remains mostly quiet…..she is waiting....she (and only she) knows her battle plan....she (and only she) knows her timing.....she is learning....studying the opposition....guarding the "cubs"....waiting quietly with an occasional "roar"…..reconnoitering the challengers and enemies from within and without.....studying weaknesses....building and conserving her own strength....endlessly practicing....reading...honing her skills.....waiting.....waiting…
This war has not yet begun. What has been seen of the other candidates to date has been nothing but minor and irrelevant skirmishing. Candidates in...candidates out....candidates winning....candidates losing.....candidates up in some polls; candidates disappearing....candidates saying silly things.....candidates saying cogent, insightful things….candidates being personally attacked by the msm (including fox) and the largely irrelevant, faux intelligencia (rove, krauthammer, morris, olberman, matthews, etc).....candidates being dismissed by the msm.....candidates attacking one another instead of concentrating on the real issues and enemy.
It is a very, very long way yet to November, 2012. There is no need to rush. Keeping her own council Mrs. Palin smiles knowingly, and trusting in the loyalty of her supporters, remembers the words of Napolean, "Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake." and General Patton, "Our basic plan of operation is to advance and to keep on advancing regardless of whether we have to go over, under, or through the enemy. We are going to go through him like crap through a goose; like shit through a tin horn!"
When she arrives, you can count on total war. She has learned how to fight. She has been through this before.....all the way to election day. She does not spin; she attacks, all the time.....constantly; she does not back away from principles; she means exactly what she says...and says exactly what she means. She has built and continues to add to her base of support because of who and what she is....not because of who or what she panders to.
Patience.....patience....
Wait for it!
And keep the faith....
110% definitely does exist, especially in the USAF. It is to us what “Hooah” is to the Army despite the fact that isn’t a word.
Most of the McGinniss nonsense was already published as unsubstantiated tabloid rumor before he wrote his book, including allegations of divorce, etc., which has been denied by the Palins and other people allegedly involved. The claims remain unsubstantiated and not credible in the least.
Indeed, McGinniss has had a tenuous relationship with the truth for some time now. Seems he was in a hit and run while stalking Sarah up in Alaska, left his overdue rental car at the scene, and told the police it was stolen. Heard this on Rush just today.
So McGinniss and his fantasies about Palin are likely to have a less than zero effect on Sarah’s plan to run. If you’re basing your expectations on the McGinniss slanders, you will be sorely disappointed. Sorry. :)
Yeah, but it makes it easier.
Name the last anti-farm/ethanol subsidy Republican to win IA?
Immigration seems to be a big issue, particularly to the TP, but especially in CO. If Tancredo thinks her stance is too soft (whenever she comes out with it), her chances in CO are diminished.
Nevada is a very fractured GOP state. It’s got about 40% Conservatives, 35% Moderates, and 30% Moonbats (Paulbots).
Not even taking the Vegas machine into account, the only way she can win is to unite the factions. Sandoval was able to do it, but Angle could not. It isn’t impossible for her to do, but it won’t be easy.
New Hampshire doesn’t really have a conservative base. This would be another difficult pick up.
She won’t run if she thinks she’ll be Goldwater’ed. Even a close loss to Obama would be devestating considering how weak he is, and would only strengthen the RINO establishment into attacking the conservative base that it was “them” who cost the GOP what should have been an easy election. She wants to be absolutely as sure as possible that the numbers are there. This also goes for the GOP primary. If she can’t figure out a way to get Perry supporters into her camp, she’s not going to run because she won’t win the nomination.
Never, she is running interference.
From what I’ve read, NY-9 won’t exist as presently drawn by the ‘12 election. It will be drawn out of existence.
You will have to ask a Palin supporter on the organization part. From what they say, the ground games are already ready to go should she jump in. As to when too late is too late, I guess the drop dead date would be October where you have to register in order to get on the ballot for IA. Of course, you could still do a write-in campaign but that takes more effort that only the staunchest supporters will be willing to do (yeah, you’d be amazed at how many people would feel too lazy to have to write in a name rather than choose one).
As for the Bill, I suspect they might try to avoid controversy by implementing it for 2016, but that would just be stupid. The GOP has the votes and the GOV would sign it as is for 2012. They should do it for that.
That is wishful thinking on the Rats part. There is a commission of elected GOP and the Rat Gov that are going to decide the matter. As far as anything I have heard from the GOP side, they want to keep the seat. I think that there will be one Rat seat and one GOP seat lost. The GOP has other loser seats to get rid of other then that one.
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