Posted on 09/21/2011 11:33:07 AM PDT by parksstp
Watching Palin, you know that when she does something, she only does it at 110% or more. And like most politicians, she doesn’t like to lose (see her 2008 night of the election – yeah, she was angry McCain wouldn’t let her speak, but I’m also sure deep down she was bitter over the fact that the American voters bought the whole “hope and changey” platitudes.) And obviously, she wants to fix that bitter taste from 2008. How she accomplishes that (runs, doesn’t run, etc) has been a matter of debate.
The biggest hinderance you hear about Palin running for POTUS is her “electability”. Polls would have you believe her unfavorable ratings will never allow her to win the GOP nomination, or if she does win it, lose the 2012 General Election.
Well, yes, polls can help determine the outlook of a situation. Take a look at the current sitting President. All signs point to him losing his base, in addition to independents, as the country spirals downward.
But we have seen one thing proven time and time again. That regardless of polls, the ideological support of each party, usually in some fashion or another, returns to their ideological candidate. Usually it is enough. Sometimes it is not (McCain).
The “electability” argument against Palin usually goes that she cannot win the election because she cannot win moderates or independents. Okay, fine, valid point. Now my contention is going to be this: Does she really have to win them to win the 2012 Election?
Some folks would scoff off at me: “Of course she does! Nobody is going to win the election if they can’t win the middle.” Oh really?
The “Moderate/Independent” label is broad and misleading. Looking at some of the CNN Map data from the 2004, 2008, and 2010 Elections, I’ve come across something interesting. These “Moderate/Independents” tend to vote for the Republican candidate in counties carried by the Republican. Shockingly, the “Moderate/Independents” also tend to vote for the Democrat in counties carried by the Democrat. Not so moderate/independent as we thought. And when you hear the media talking about how she can’t win the “Independents” they’re referring to the ones in the blue counties. Even though no Republican ever carries anywhere near a majority of independents in the blue counties, they expect Palin to accomplish this task to have legitimacy, while in all honesty, she can run just as mediocre in those areas as Bush did, provided she runs strong margins in the traditional conservative areas. Picking up 20% of “Independents” in Broward County, FL would be all she would need provided she ran as strong elsewhere in the state where she is supposed to.
Okay, sorry for the digression, back to the question of the thread. Like I said, Sarah likes to win and hates losing. Well folks, there’s one event going on right now, that if you’re a Palin supporter you better be on the phone lines making it happen.
The current bill in PA to reapportion the Electoral College votes blows the electability argument out of the water. IF it passes, based on redistricting, it’s possible that the GOP candidate could come out of PA with as many as 10 Electoral Votes. That’s the equivalent of IA and NH, without actually having to win IA and NH. It turns the Electoral Math almost decisively towards the GOP candidate.
Except for MO (given it’s closeness), there is no Red State from 2008 that is in any serious jeopardy to turn blue in 2012. MO has shown that there is usually enough conservative votes to offset StL/KC. IN and NC both appear to be heading Red this time around. VA can return to the Red column by reclaiming Loudon, Chesapeake, Suffolk, and other Bush-majorities that McCain lost. FL and OH seem to go as the economy goes. Obama did not blow McCain out in either of these states, instead McCain severly underperformed in traditionally red/conservative areas. That’s 266 Electoral votes. When you add in the potential of 10 Electoral Votes from PA, it’s game over for Obama.
In fact, it opens up viable winning scenarios for the Republican without having to win both OH and FL. For example, let’s say for whatever reason, Obama succeeds in getting “old people” scared to vote for Palin and wins FL. If she still carried OH and reclaimed the Bush States of IA, NM, CO, and NV or NH, and won at least 7 CD’s in PA, she would have 270 to win. Likewise, if she lost OH due to voter fraud, but managed to carry FL, CO, and one other state (IA, NM, NV, NH), 6-7 CD’s in PA would also get her to 270.
With the passage of this bill, the Electoral Math is realistically in her favor. Not that it wasn’t before, but this bill may be the decisive factor in her decision to run for two reasons. First, the GOP primary voters can feel assured that based on the Electoral Math probabilities, they can select the candidate they really want to without having to worry about the “electability” factor. This is the #1 argument she will need to make to capture voters from the Perry and the other conservative campaigns. Second, from an economic standpoint, her campaign can throw the kitchen sink at OH/FL immediately putting Obama on defense, then pick and choose what other blue states they will gamble for (but don’t have to win) given their status of funds.
IF this PA bill passes, look for a Palin announcement shortly thereafter. If none occurs, then she won’t be running.
sounds good to me...
She's been campaigning in those states, and has them sewn up.
She'll be the nominee before Mitt Perry knows what hit them.
Heh.
OK, so when is this again?
Then explain almost all of the elections since Obummer took office. Scott Brown and Turner in the NY 9 come to mind. Obummer has shifted his party so far left, that there is not the size of his base that there traditionally is. The old paradigms are worthless.
Whatever happens in Pennsylvania has nothing to do with Palin’s decision whether or not to run. I believe Palin has decided to run all along but is not going to announce until she is ready to announce. Those looking for outside events to influence or discourage the Palin’s(Todd,too) decisions are quite mistaken.
VERY interesting-!!
I figure if Palin is going to announce it will be on opening day of the Arctic Grizzly Hunting Season on April 15th.
What happened to Barry was he ran for office as a Westerner (backed by Midwestern money) against a Texan who still had a strong Western base.
The Rockefeller Republicans neglected to participate in the campaign ~ primarily because their numbers were dwindling to insignificance and they'd not yet been replaced by some other Eastern faction ~ which is still the case.
Richard Nixon realized the problem with the Northeastern Republicans and ran as a Westerner from San Diego against "the Humph" ~ who had tepid Souv'rn support and weaker support everywhere in the Midwest except in Minnesota. He did that twice!
Ronald Reagan later on won in a landslide because he ran against a goat herder from the Georgia sea islands ~ and without the participation of the Rockefeller Republicans since they'd all disappeared completely by that time.
Ronald did not get Minnesota if I recall ~ and whoever wins this Republican nomination might also have trouble winning that state. The reasons are multitudinous and bizarre so I'll not go into them.
Thankfully we no longer have any of the Candidate's handlers and keepers imagining that the outcome of the race will depend on Eastern Republicans. Those days are over.
The "newsies", though, continue to imagine the existence of a broad middle ground of moderates. They are nuts.
No states are having their primaries before the Iowa caucus and the New Hampshire primary.
I've thought all along that the polls gave too high an estimate ~ it's more like 2% and he ends up knowing most of them.
I don’t think that is as big of an issue as you make it seem. In the 8 Midwest States of Ohio, Indiana, Michigan, Illinois, Iowa, Missouri, Wisconsin and Minnesota, Obama won 7 in 2008.
Of those 8 States, only 3 had Republican Governors in 2008 (Daniels in Indiana, Blunt in Missouri, and Pawlenty in Minnesota).
Now, in 2012, only 3 of those States have Democrats as Governors (Quinn in Illinois, Nixon in Missouri, and Dayton in Minnesota).
Now, of those, Nixon has had to be a very moderate Democrat and faces McCaskill dragging him down in his re-election. He won’t be pimping for Obama very hard since he is up for re-election as well.
Dayton won the Minnesota Governor’s seat by 8,770 votes out of 2.1 million. He is in no position to push Obama hard either.
Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin all have seen serious turn arounds in their economies due to the new Republican’s in charge.
So, if Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Indiana and Ohio slip over to the Republican side, and Missouri stays red, then the margin needed can be gained by turning Wisconsin, Minnesota, or Michigan.
After all the polls and analysis come in, I believe the fight will be over Minnesota. If the Republicans can turn Minnesota (something that has not happened in 40 years), they win in a walk. Look for the vetting of Senator John Hoeven for a VP pick by whoever gets the nod.
Really???
What happened to Constitution Day? Or Iowa caucus? Or the east coast bus History tour? Or Ronald Reagan Birthday ? Or......
As soon as she quits her Fox job.
Maybe I am naive but I see no way Obama can ever win Missouri. Surely we will take Claire out in the process also.
Where did you hear/read that any state will leapfrog over Iowa? We (Iowans) won’t let that happen. We will caucus this weekend if necessary.
Maybe, maybe not, but they sure are trying.
I just posted that to tweak the Perrywinkies anyway.
They think their guy has it in the bag, and any suggestion that he doesn't sends them into crazy-land.
They're practically there anyway.
She’ll run when she’s sure the 2nd tier canidates have run their course (as in ALL the current candidates).
Lets face it, Romney and Perry are just placeholders until Sarah announces and EVERYBODY knows it - or its a least in the back of their minds. Including Perry/Romney/and the MSM.
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