I don’t think that is as big of an issue as you make it seem. In the 8 Midwest States of Ohio, Indiana, Michigan, Illinois, Iowa, Missouri, Wisconsin and Minnesota, Obama won 7 in 2008.
Of those 8 States, only 3 had Republican Governors in 2008 (Daniels in Indiana, Blunt in Missouri, and Pawlenty in Minnesota).
Now, in 2012, only 3 of those States have Democrats as Governors (Quinn in Illinois, Nixon in Missouri, and Dayton in Minnesota).
Now, of those, Nixon has had to be a very moderate Democrat and faces McCaskill dragging him down in his re-election. He won’t be pimping for Obama very hard since he is up for re-election as well.
Dayton won the Minnesota Governor’s seat by 8,770 votes out of 2.1 million. He is in no position to push Obama hard either.
Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin all have seen serious turn arounds in their economies due to the new Republican’s in charge.
So, if Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Indiana and Ohio slip over to the Republican side, and Missouri stays red, then the margin needed can be gained by turning Wisconsin, Minnesota, or Michigan.
After all the polls and analysis come in, I believe the fight will be over Minnesota. If the Republicans can turn Minnesota (something that has not happened in 40 years), they win in a walk. Look for the vetting of Senator John Hoeven for a VP pick by whoever gets the nod.
Maybe I am naive but I see no way Obama can ever win Missouri. Surely we will take Claire out in the process also.
Hoeven? Why? So the GOP can lock down all three of North Dakota's electoral votes?
Otherwise, great analysis, except that if Pennsylvania adopts the pending bill to allocate electoral votes on the same basis as Maine and Nebraska, most of our Commonwealth will behave like a midwestern state as well.